Has Trump destroyed his chances by staying out of the Fox debate?

[Talleyrand]

Yes, he'll be shredded to pieces by the remaining candidates on stage. If Fox leaves an empty podium on stage, it'll be even worse.

He's done.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Definitely a really stupid decision.

[RI]

Just like everyone thought Paul got killed because he skipped last debate, right? Oh, wait.

[Torie]

He's not going to skip the debate.

[Mehmentum]

No, not even close.  Trump will be polling at 50% by the Iowa caucuses.

[Vosem]

Just like everyone thought Paul got killed because he skipped last debate, right? Oh, wait.

Paul is already down to his absolute core of support. He has nowhere further to fall.

This is absolutely not the case for the Donald, a good chunk of whose support (not all of it, not even close to a majority, but enough to matter) is still persuadable and, furthermore, who is still counting on at least some undecideds to come across to his camp and should avoid alienating them.

[Ronnie]

There's really no telling what's going to happen.  I'm pretty shocked that he actually made that decision--if he did.  There's still a good chance he's bluffing, in my opinion.  But yeah, if he does sit out the debate, I'd be inclined to say he's probably going to lose Iowa.

[Mike Thick]

I would not be surprised by anything, given how crappy I've been at predicting this cycle.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

If calling Iowa voters dumb didn't ruin his popularity there, I have little reason to believe this will, either.

[LLR]

Ideally: Yes
Realistically: He surges. Go figure.

[Joe Republic]

"Has Trump destroyed his chances by (insert ordinarily campaign-killing gaffe here)?"

The answer is always no.  Haven't you been paying any attention?

[The Mikado]

I seriously wonder how anyone can think this move is bad for Trump. His ratings are going to dwarf the debate. It will stop millions of people from watching the debate and, by extension, remembering that the other candidates are people who exist. It makes Trump look like the fighting man who's doing things and helping our Vets in need while the ordinary pols talk and talk and accomplish nothing.

Most of all, it will be fun. The debate will not be.

No one will care about this debate.

[bigedlb]

I seriously wonder how anyone can think this move is bad for Trump. His ratings are going to dwarf the debate. It will stop millions of people from watching the debate and, by extension, remembering that the other candidates are people who exist. It makes Trump look like the fighting man who's doing things and helping our Vets in need while the ordinary pols talk and talk and accomplish nothing.

Most of all, it will be fun. The debate will not be.

No one will care about this debate.

Fox Response

"We learned from a secret back channel that the Ayatollah and Putin both intend to treat Donald Trump unfairly when they meet with him if he becomes president — a nefarious source tells us that Trump has his own secret plan to replace the Cabinet with his Twitter followers to see if he should even go to those meetings."

[Maxwell]

If calling Iowa voters dumb didn't ruin his popularity there, I have little reason to believe this will, either.

[The Other Castro]

He's crashing a bit in the PredictIt Iowa market.

[CatoMinor]

Trump could hold a Klan rally where he sacrifices a virgin to the gods of winning and high-energy and the only result would be Jeb! going down another point or two in the polls.

It is a dark time for democracy in America.

[Torie]

I still think Trump will show up, after dominating the news cycle. If he doesn't, despite his talent for defying gravity, I think this time he will be unable to do so.

[cinyc]

I still think Trump will show up, after dominating the news cycle. If he doesn't, despite his talent for defying gravity, I think this time he will be unable to do so.

It sounds like a done deal, Torie.  Trump would look really bad if he goes back on his word not to debate.  At this point, he has more to lose by showing up than not showing up.

My guess is Trump hasn't destroyed his chances by staying out of the debate.  Everything unconventional that he's done hasn't hurt Trump yet.  I'm not sure why ducking the debate will be different.

[chop]

This decision can do nothing but hurt him. If he had a mediocre debate Iowa would essentially be his anyway. Why such a risky ploy on the eve of the election? It will make him look weak. Afraid of Megyn Kelly

The candidates will roast him on Thursday.

Somebody from his campaign needs to get in his ear and tell him to debate

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

If calling Iowa voters dumb didn't ruin his popularity there, I have little reason to believe this will, either.

[chop]

I still think Trump will show up, after dominating the news cycle. If he doesn't, despite his talent for defying gravity, I think this time he will be unable to do so.

He's boxed himself into a corner saying he'll do a Veterans event instead. So now he has to cancel on the Vets to take on Megyn Kelly?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Nate Silver, is that you?

[ag]

It will depend on how the others perform. The real danger for him is not that he will be destroyed, but that he will be ignored during that debate. It could allow one of the others, if he has a good debate, to become a natural focus of the anti-Trump field.

To sum up, if I were a Republican on that stage, I would pretend that I have forgotten of Trump's existence: if others do the same we can hope to displace Trump from the news cycle, which will be the real damage.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

No this won't hurt him at all.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It will depend on how the others perform. The real danger for him is not that he will be destroyed, but that he will be ignored during that debate. It could allow one of the others, if he has a good debate, to become a natural focus of the anti-Trump field.

To sum up, if I were a Republican on that stage, I would pretend that I have forgotten of Trump's existence: if others do the same we can hope to displace Trump from the news cycle, which will be the real damage.

This is the potential risk. Trump is betting that he can dominate the media coverage by boycotting the debate. If the media actually denies him that coverage, then maybe this stunt backfires.