Massachusetts Governor 2018

[politicallpd]

What's the preliminary outlook for the Massachusetts' gubernatorial race for 2018? Baker is very popular right now, but I can see a Democrat running as more of a moderate give him a good run next cycle. My thinking goes that being popular in-and-of-itself isn't an achievement, a governor must have a vision for his/her state and a plan to take it there.

I'm thinking a mayor with executive experience would be the strongest candidate. Setti Warren (D-Newton), Joe Curtatone (D-Somerville) or Kim Driscoll (D-Salem) would all be strong options in my opinion.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

No A-list or B-list candidate will challenge him. Safe R.

[sg0508]

1) It's a mid-term cycle.  That's better news for minority party candidates.
2) He's popular
3) The Commonwealth has a history of being GOP-friendly in Gov. races

Barring something major, Baker is likely in good shape.

[This account no longer in use.]

Please let Driscoll run and get her out of this city.

[Miles]

The only question is whether Baker can top Bill Weld in 1994.

[GLPman]

Assuming Baker maintains his popularity, he will crush any opponent.

[tpfkaw]

If a Republican is President, this could be a close race (and Dems might get an A-lister to run, probably Seth Moulton). If a Democrat is, and barring any scandals, then Baker is likely safe. I don't think it's possible to do better than Weld, however.

[Sir Mohamed]

Baker will be reelected easily unless a major scandal occurs. The only thing than can happen to him, is that he gets a primary challenge from a right-winger. But that won’t be a threat to him.

[tpfkaw]

a primary challenge from a right-winger.

No chance. Maybe if he breaks his no new taxes pledge, but even then I doubt it.

(Some perennial candidate like Christy Mihos likely will challenge him, but they won't get past the convention).

[RR]

Sure do hope the Boston Toad (Croakly) challenges Baker again and loses.

[NerdyBohemian]

Sure do hope the Boston Toad (Croakly) challenges Baker again and loses.

At this point, me too,just to keep the meme going.

[JMT]

Unless something major happens or the political climate is strongly favoring democrats, I don't see Baker losing. If one if the above is true, then democrats may field a few strong candidates.

I could potentially see Seth Moulton running. He would be a good option, he's young, has political experience, and could appeal to independents in a general election. I'd endorse him if he ran. Perhaps he's testing the waters, he was highly and vocally critical of Baker's statement about Syrian refugees.

[Kingpoleon]

Carmen Ortiz/Marty Walsh seems like a pretty strong ticket to me.

[j4kor]

likely R

[Figueira]

I think he's favored for now, but I don't think he's absolutely 100% safe like some people think. A lot can happen in 2 1/2 years.

The only question is whether Baker can top Bill Weld in 1994.

Even if he gets a similar percentage, the map won't look as impressive. A lot of tiny towns in Western Massachusetts have trended left since then.

Edit: the link just shows the county map, but if you look at the town map, the Democrat only won six towns.

[JMT]

Carmen Ortiz/Marty Walsh seems like a pretty strong ticket to me.

While that does sound like a strong ticket, Marty Walsh probably wouldn't give up his job as Mayor of Boston to be the next Lt Gov, a job with very little power. That seems like a big step down. I could see Walsh rubbing on the top of the ticket for Governor some day though. Or I could see him being like Tom Menino, staying as Mayor of Boston forever

[This account no longer in use.]

Either Kennedy or Moulton would be the Democratic candidate if they jumped in. If they both ran, I feel like Kennedy would be a better idea for Democrats, as Moulton's district is much more competitive. If neither ran, it's Safe Republican, with Kim Driscoll having the potential to lose worse than Mark Roosevelt. On the third party side, Evan Falchuk is running again.

[Brittain33]

Seth Moulton may be literally the only high-level Democrat in the state who has criticized Baker recently. Everyone else has left a trail of "Baker is a good guy you can work with" quotes and won't bother running against him.

[Figueira]

Either Kennedy or Moulton would be the Democratic candidate if they jumped in. If they both ran, I feel like Kennedy would be a better idea for Democrats, as Moulton's district is much more competitive. If neither ran, it's Safe Republican, with Kim Driscoll having the potential to lose worse than Mark Roosevelt. On the third party side, Evan Falchuk is running again.

Neither Kennedy nor Moulton are going to give up safe House seats (Moulton's seat isn't really that competitive) for a governor's race that they probably wouldn't win. I mean, I'd happily vote for them, but they wouldn't want to take that risk.

[tpfkaw]

Either Kennedy or Moulton would be the Democratic candidate if they jumped in. If they both ran, I feel like Kennedy would be a better idea for Democrats, as Moulton's district is much more competitive. If neither ran, it's Safe Republican, with Kim Driscoll having the potential to lose worse than Mark Roosevelt. On the third party side, Evan Falchuk is running again.

Neither Kennedy nor Moulton are going to give up safe House seats (Moulton's seat isn't really that competitive) for a governor's race that they probably wouldn't win. I mean, I'd happily vote for them, but they wouldn't want to take that risk.

They wouldn't have to give up their House seats.

[This account no longer in use.]

Either Kennedy or Moulton would be the Democratic candidate if they jumped in. If they both ran, I feel like Kennedy would be a better idea for Democrats, as Moulton's district is much more competitive. If neither ran, it's Safe Republican, with Kim Driscoll having the potential to lose worse than Mark Roosevelt. On the third party side, Evan Falchuk is running again.

Neither Kennedy nor Moulton are going to give up safe House seats (Moulton's seat isn't really that competitive) for a governor's race that they probably wouldn't win. I mean, I'd happily vote for them, but they wouldn't want to take that risk.

They wouldn't have to give up their House seats.

Yes, but it would make everything much more difficult if they won both elections.

[Figueira]

Either Kennedy or Moulton would be the Democratic candidate if they jumped in. If they both ran, I feel like Kennedy would be a better idea for Democrats, as Moulton's district is much more competitive. If neither ran, it's Safe Republican, with Kim Driscoll having the potential to lose worse than Mark Roosevelt. On the third party side, Evan Falchuk is running again.

Neither Kennedy nor Moulton are going to give up safe House seats (Moulton's seat isn't really that competitive) for a governor's race that they probably wouldn't win. I mean, I'd happily vote for them, but they wouldn't want to take that risk.

They wouldn't have to give up their House seats.

Don't reps need to give up their seats to run for governor in a normal year?

[tpfkaw]

Either Kennedy or Moulton would be the Democratic candidate if they jumped in. If they both ran, I feel like Kennedy would be a better idea for Democrats, as Moulton's district is much more competitive. If neither ran, it's Safe Republican, with Kim Driscoll having the potential to lose worse than Mark Roosevelt. On the third party side, Evan Falchuk is running again.

Neither Kennedy nor Moulton are going to give up safe House seats (Moulton's seat isn't really that competitive) for a governor's race that they probably wouldn't win. I mean, I'd happily vote for them, but they wouldn't want to take that risk.

They wouldn't have to give up their House seats.

Don't reps need to give up their seats to run for governor in a normal year?

Nope, and I'm not even sure it would be constitutional to prohibit running for both offices simultaneously, since one is a federal office and the other is a state office.

[Figueira]

Either Kennedy or Moulton would be the Democratic candidate if they jumped in. If they both ran, I feel like Kennedy would be a better idea for Democrats, as Moulton's district is much more competitive. If neither ran, it's Safe Republican, with Kim Driscoll having the potential to lose worse than Mark Roosevelt. On the third party side, Evan Falchuk is running again.

Neither Kennedy nor Moulton are going to give up safe House seats (Moulton's seat isn't really that competitive) for a governor's race that they probably wouldn't win. I mean, I'd happily vote for them, but they wouldn't want to take that risk.

They wouldn't have to give up their House seats.

Don't reps need to give up their seats to run for governor in a normal year?

Nope, and I'm not even sure it would be constitutional to prohibit running for both offices simultaneously, since one is a federal office and the other is a state office.

Are there any examples of people running for House and Governor (of any state) simultaneously? I can't think of any, but I haven't been closely following politics for that long.