When will be the next realignment election?

[5280]

When will be the next realignment election? We know 2016 will probably be similar to 2008 and 2012.

[5280]

2032

[5280]

2052...the Republicans and Democrats slowly revert back to their old platforms before the Civil Rights movement.

[5280]

By 2090 it will be Democrats in the south and Republicans in the north again. California and Maryland are the only tossup states.

[j4kor]

2020

[President Johnson]

Maybe 2024; GOP becomes more moderate (after a two-term presidency of Hillary):

Former Governor Charlie Baker (R-MA)/Representative Abel Maldonado (R-CA): 371 EV. (53.49%)
Vice President Tim Kaine (D-VA)/Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM): 167 EV. (45.97%)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

realigning elections don't real

[Kingpoleon]

2024 or 2028, depending on what happens in 2020 to the incumbent. I could see a Sandoval/Ayotte v. Goodwin/Polis election in either 2024 or 2028.

Voted 2028.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton should be reelected narrowly absent smoking gun and impeachment. So, picked 2024.

[DS0816]

What would be the cause/causes of "the next realignment"?

[This account no longer in use.]

Clinton should be reelected varronh smoking gun and impeachment. So, picked 2024.

Agreed.

[5280]

What would be the cause/causes of "the next realignment"?

Republican party re branding after losing for 16 years, Democratic fatigue, and attracting Generation Z and Generation Alpha to vote conservative. So I'd say roughly 2024 or 2028 could be a Republican wave similar to 1984.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP is probably gonna lose this election, and GOP are on defense in House & Senate. Senate control is gonna go to Dems as they make ground up in House. It depends on economic growth, in Summer of 2016, hopefully it is at full steam.

[Sir Mohamed]

Frankly I don’t see a realignment coming soon, because that means that one party takes away the “majority status” from the other (like in 1932). This time, there is no clear dominating party like the GOP in the 1920s or Dems in the 1940s. It’s practically deadlock with large divisions between and even within the states.

[RFayette]

Frankly I don’t see a realignment coming soon, because that means that one party takes away the “majority status” from the other (like in 1932). This time, there is no clear dominating party like the GOP in the 1920s or Dems in the 1940s. It’s practically deadlock with large divisions between and even within the states.

It could be argued that we are still in an era of GOP dominance that started with Reagan.  Keep in mind that for those who believe in realignments, both of Ike's bigger than 2008 wins occurred in the middle of a Dem era, and according to some definitions, Nixon's 1972 sweep did as well. 

I tend to think we, if anything, are in a "Gilded Age"-like era with frequent disparities between Congress/the White House and close, polarized elections rather than in the middle of a GOP or Dem alignment.

[DS0816]

What would be the cause/causes of "the next realignment"?

Republican party re branding after losing for 16 years, Democratic fatigue, and attracting Generation Z and Generation Alpha to vote conservative. So I'd say roughly 2024 or 2028 could be a Republican wave similar to 1984.

Thanks for answering.

I would guess the 2040s.

[pbrower2a]

Realignments usually happen under the cover of blowout losses as the winners end up with coalitions that have incompatible constituencies and find themselves in the same Party. Then the rifts form. I voted 2028 in error and really meant 2024

[Devils30]

If the GOP wins in 2024, Dems win the House back in 2026.

[Virginiá]

If the GOP wins in 2024, Dems win the House back in 2026.

Do you mean win as in a 1994-style ousting, or simply taking back the House due the typical WH-incumbent-party-loses-seats-in-midterms?

If 1994, then it's worth noting that things were different back then. Ticket-splitting happened much more and the Southern realignment reached a tipping point where enough House seats were changing hands, in addition to gains elsewhere, to tip the chamber.

The current realignment is occurring mainly along generational and racial lines. Heavily Democratic Millennials are growing up, along with an exploding minority population which is on its way to being unanimously Democratic, means that the House could flip before 2026 or maybe even after. A large majority of Millennials currently vote Democratic regardless of who is president, so we don't need a Republican president to "push" them over.

[MT Treasurer]

Realignment elections are mostly a myth.

[Virginiá]

Realignment elections are mostly a myth.

If you're saying that as meaning one or two elections create a realignment, then you're probably right. Most realignments tend to happen over time with noticeable changes in views or ideology of the general populace. Eventually a presidential election comes along where a candidate strikes a chord with the new majority and that generally begins, or even continues, the change in the power structure.

So in reality those big elections tend to be more a result of the realignment rather than the cause.

[Camaro33]

2020. Something is going to give on both sides after this bombshell of an election cycle.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Could be this one. Especially if we see both parties fracture (which is quite likely)

[Spark]

2020

[Virginiá]

Could be this one. Especially if we see both parties fracture (which is quite likely)

Democrats are not even close to fracturing. A primary with a generation gap isn't as significant as one may think.