primary/caucus day weather thread

[Mr. Morden]

Des Moines forecast for Monday, according to weather.com:

https://weather.com/weather/5day/l/USIA0231:1:US

High temp of 37 degrees F, low of 20.

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During the evening:

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[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Des Moines forecast for Monday, according to weather.com:

https://weather.com/weather/5day/l/USIA0231:1:US

High temp of 37 degrees F, low of 20.

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During the evening:

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It's not blizzard sub-zero this year so expect much higher turnout

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Des Moines forecast for Monday, according to weather.com:

https://weather.com/weather/5day/l/USIA0231:1:US

High temp of 37 degrees F, low of 20.

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During the evening:

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It's not blizzard sub-zero this year so expect much higher turnout

That was 2008- 2012 was a perfectly decent day.  Surprised at the level of cold, since it's supposed to be in the 60s down here that day!

[This account no longer in use.]

Snow will likely be better for Sanders and Cruz.

[Likely Voter]

Snow will likely be better for Sanders and Cruz.

If the assumption is that snow reduces the number of first time caucus goers, then it would help Clinton and Cruz, bigger turnout helps Sanders and Trump.


WaPo has a weather tracker article being updated with a map
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/25/your-real-time-iowa-caucus-weather-tracker/

City   2008 Dem winner   2012 R winner   High   Low   Evening   Weather
Adel   Obama, (35)   Romney, (33.38)   29°   24°   28°   Snow (snow)
Ames   Obama, (40.28)   Romney, (26.02)   29°   24°   28°   Snow (snow)
Cedar Rapids   Obama, (42.6)   Romney, (28.97)   31°   26°   30°   Snow (light snow)
Council Bluffs   Clinton, (42.2)   Romney, (26.57)   35°   23°   30°   Snow (snow)
Davenport   Obama, (48.29)   Romney, (33.56)   33°   28°   32°   Snow (light snow)
Des Moines   Obama, (39.33)   Romney, (28.43)   29°   24°   28°   Snow (snow)
Dubuque   Obama, (36.07)   Romney, (31.54)   37°   28°   32°   Rain (light rain)
Iowa City   Obama, (52.34)   Romney, (34.3)   31°   26°   30°   Snow (light snow)
Orange City   Obama, (37.33)   Santorum, (45.56)   24°   18°   23°   Snow (light snow)
Sioux City   Clinton, (36.47)   Santorum, (32.84)   27°   19°   26°   Snow (light snow)
Waterloo   Obama, (42.62)   Paul, (23.91)   31°   26°   30°   Snow (light snow)

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Snow will likely be better for Sanders and Cruz.

If the assumption is that snow reduces the number of first time caucus goers, then it would help Clinton and Cruz, bigger turnout helps Sanders and Trump.


WaPo has a weather tracker article being updated with a map
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/25/your-real-time-iowa-caucus-weather-tracker/

City   2008 Dem winner   2012 R winner   High   Low   Evening   Weather
Adel   Obama, (35)   Romney, (33.38)   29°   24°   28°   Snow (snow)
Ames   Obama, (40.28)   Romney, (26.02)   29°   24°   28°   Snow (snow)
Cedar Rapids   Obama, (42.6)   Romney, (28.97)   31°   26°   30°   Snow (light snow)
Council Bluffs   Clinton, (42.2)   Romney, (26.57)   35°   23°   30°   Snow (snow)
Davenport   Obama, (48.29)   Romney, (33.56)   33°   28°   32°   Snow (light snow)
Des Moines   Obama, (39.33)   Romney, (28.43)   29°   24°   28°   Snow (snow)
Dubuque   Obama, (36.07)   Romney, (31.54)   37°   28°   32°   Rain (light rain)
Iowa City   Obama, (52.34)   Romney, (34.3)   31°   26°   30°   Snow (light snow)
Orange City   Obama, (37.33)   Santorum, (45.56)   24°   18°   23°   Snow (light snow)
Sioux City   Clinton, (36.47)   Santorum, (32.84)   27°   19°   26°   Snow (light snow)
Waterloo   Obama, (42.62)   Paul, (23.91)   31°   26°   30°   Snow (light snow)

I guess we'll just have to wait and see, logically being Floridian I wouldn't go out if this was the weather, but Iowans don't seem fazed by this kind of weather so I would be surprised if this hampered turnout

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

This should help Cruz and Clinton.

[Torie]

It should help Rubio since his support is more urban based (easier to get to the caucus site in bad weather), and hurt Trump (he dominates in the rural west of all things).

[YPestis25]

I'll bump this. Current forecasts don't have the snow reaching western Iowa until after midnight which should help turnout.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Hoping for heavy snow (Iowans won't be hampered by light snow because they aren't southerners and know how to drive in the snow). Need low turnout to push Trump numbers down.

[Eraserhead]

Hoping for heavy snow (Iowans won't be hampered by light snow because they aren't southerners and know how to drive in the snow). Need low turnout to push Trump numbers down.

Not happening. At least not until Tuesday when it won't matter.

[Beet]

Going to depress turnout for candidates with older, more sickly supporters. This could be a major issue that ends up deciding the caucus results.

[Ljube]

Sanders and TRUMP will triumph.

[Ljube]

Hmmm... the NWS has a SW-NE axis of heaviest snow (6-12") from the Omaha suburbs to Des Moines and Ames to Waterloo to Decorah in the far NE.  The NW and SE areas are mostly excluded, including the Quad Cities and the strong Santorum/Huckabee areas NE of Sioux City.  Dubuque is right on the edge of heavy vs. light snow.  Temperatures are generally in the mid-20's to low 30's.

By Upper Midwest standards, this isn't all that much snow or all that cold.  To the extent the storm does impact the caucus, I would expect it hurts the candidates most dependent on relatively upscale urban voters with college degrees, given that Des Moines and Ames are in the bullseye.  That's clearly bad news for Sanders, and on the Republican side probably hurts Rubio most.

But again, this is Iowa and they are used to snowy winters.  If, for example, the VA/MD/DC primaries had been held last Monday, this would be a very different story!

After taking into consideration the Weather.com poll, I think you are right. Rubio and Sanders will be hurt.

I am changing my projection of Iowa winners to TRUMP and Clinton.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Hmmm... the NWS has a SW-NE axis of heaviest snow (6-12") from the Omaha suburbs to Des Moines and Ames to Waterloo to Decorah in the far NE.  The NW and SE areas are mostly excluded, including the Quad Cities and the strong Santorum/Huckabee areas NE of Sioux City.  Dubuque is right on the edge of heavy vs. light snow.  Temperatures are generally in the mid-20's to low 30's.

By Upper Midwest standards, this isn't all that much snow or all that cold.  To the extent the storm does impact the caucus, I would expect it hurts the candidates most dependent on relatively upscale urban voters with college degrees, given that Des Moines and Ames are in the bullseye.  That's clearly bad news for Sanders, and on the Republican side probably hurts Rubio most.

But again, this is Iowa and they are used to snowy winters.  If, for example, the VA/MD/DC primaries had been held last Monday, this would be a very different story!

After taking into consideration the Weather.com poll, I think you are right. Rubio and Sanders will be hurt.

I am changing my projection of Iowa winners to TRUMP and Clinton.

Come on, y'all- this clearly hurts Trump the most, since his supporters are the types who never have voted in the first place.  This is just another excuse for them not to vote.

I will make this pledge today:
If Trump wins the nomination, I will not post on Atlas until Election Day.

[This account no longer in use.]

Now I kind of want Trump to win.

[Broken System]

Now I kind of want Trump to win.

Nah, you want Pataki to win, even though he has already dropped out awhile ago.

[Torie]

The unpleasant inclemency is going to hit (the word "blizzard was bandied about) western Iowa starting about 6 pm or something tomorrow, and that is Trump's strongest area, and his voters are more fair weather folks than the supporters of other candidates to boot. So that may depress Trump's percentage a bit. Rubio and Cruz are weakest in that area, particularly Rubio. You can read and listen to a video about it all here.

So for those of you predicting that Cruz will tank (somebody predicted he will below 20%), and Trump will soar, you might consider this weather angle. Just trying to be helpful.

[exopolitician]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/31/politics/iowa-caucus-blizzard-winter-storm/

Half the state is under a Blizzard watch, and the storm is expected to startup sometime Monday night (the brunt isn't expected to hit until overnight into Tuesday)

Would that hinder turnout in some areas?

[This account no longer in use.]

This might hinder turnout for some of the less enthusiastic supporters.

[Frodo]

The effects of this incoming blizzard are likely to be a wash for Clinton and Sanders -frigid temperatures and approaching snow are more likely to deter younger voters and women.  

[muon2]

As I posted elsewhere, precipitation isn't expected to reach Des Moines until 9 pm and the serious snow is expected after midnight. It arrives even later to points north and east, so none of the big college towns should be affected. Council Bluffs and the SW corner will see bad weather this afternoon, so there may be an impact there.

[Adam Griffin]

Not going to be an issue, unless far-western Iowans are scared of a little bit of rain.

[Mr. Morden]

Long term forecast for Manchester, NH next Tuesday:

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USNH0136:1:US

High temp of 37 F and a 70% chance of snow.  Projected snowfall = 1-3 inches.

Of course, it's too early for this to be terribly meaningful, so we'll have to wait and see.

[Mr. Morden]

Manchester weather forecast: Now down to 40% chance of snow on Tuesday.  High temp just below freezing.