How much will TRUMP underperform his poll numbers?

[Talleyrand]

I personally think he will underperform by around 10% relative to his poll numbers.

[RI]

There will probably be two competing effects: 1) "Ironic" Trump supporters who say they'll vote for him but don't and 2) "shy Trump" supporters voting for him despite not saying so in polls because of the stigma attached to it.

Which effect will be bigger is impossible to say. I suspect they'll largely cancel out.

[Ljube]

Desperate Establishment hacks are desperate.

[Maxwell]

He'll overperform - he regularly gets 50%+ of the electorate agreeing with him on the issues but only 35% of the vote.

Don't quote me on that though.

[Mike Thick]

It's Trump. He could easily underperform dramatically, or he could just as easily win Iowa by high double digits. With the Donald, you never know.

[bigedlb]

I personally think he will underperform by around 10% relative to his poll numbers.

PLANET WISHFUL THINKING

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

He'll overperform - he regularly gets 50%+ of the electorate agreeing with him on the issues but only 35% of the vote.

Don't quote me on that though.

....

Anyways, he'll underperform, hopefully by enough to lose IA.

[This account no longer in use.]

I don't think he'll underperform per se, just that some supporters of candidates lower in the polls will tactically vote for Cruz or Rubio, possibly resulting in a Trump loss.

[Maxwell]

He'll overperform - he regularly gets 50%+ of the electorate agreeing with him on the issues but only 35% of the vote.

Don't quote me on that though.

....

Anyways, he'll underperform, hopefully by enough to lose IA.

What's wrong with that? It's a better assessment than "dah hur Trump is gonna underperform because I don't like him dah hur".

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

What's wrong with that? It's a better assessment than "dah hur Trump is gonna underperform because I don't like him dah hur".

But don't you know there are thousands of thousands of people just telling pollster they'll vote Trump, not to mention the people who actually support Trump are all lazy people who will never bother to actually go out and vote for him.


In all seriousness though, it is impossible to know who turns out and vote what way until the day actauuly comes. But I really see Trump as the American equivalent to far-right populist parties in Europe like FPÖ and the Sweden Democrats, and they have a tendency to underpoll (although people also like to pretend their voters won't turn out beacsue they're lazy and so on) so if anything I think THE DONALDS support might be higher then polls are showing.