4 days before the Iowa Caucus in 2012 Santorum was at 4% Nationally
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  4 days before the Iowa Caucus in 2012 Santorum was at 4% Nationally		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: 4 days before the Iowa Caucus in 2012 Santorum was at 4% Nationally  (Read 645 times)
Young Conservative
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« on: January 28, 2016, 10:39:16 PM »
« edited: January 28, 2016, 10:49:51 PM by youngconservative »
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/compare/republican_presidential_nomination_2016_2012_2008.html

How important is an iowa victory? From 4 to substantially higher? If cruz wins will he surpass Trump?

(Changed topic because of a misunderstanding)
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cxs018
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« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2016, 10:40:01 PM »
Does that mean that Christie or Jeb will win?
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2016, 10:40:24 PM »
THE NEXT PRESIDENT, JIM GILMORE.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2016, 10:40:28 PM »
He was at 4% nationwide. In Iowa he was rocketing upwards and in the double digits.
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jfern
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« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2016, 10:41:23 PM »
While Santorum did do better than he polled, he was at 16% in Iowa.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2016, 10:41:50 PM »
GILMORE WILL WIN IOWA!
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cxs018
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« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2016, 10:42:13 PM »

On the day of the caucus. 4 days before, he was at 14.
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Dorko Julio
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« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2016, 10:44:47 PM »
You never know what Tricky Ricky has up his sleeve, and some of the other candidates might take a page out of his playbook. 
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2016, 10:48:13 PM »
I think the data on that page is wrong.

Look at the actual RCP page for the 2012 caucus.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

The Santorum surge started two weeks before and there were 10 polls before the IA caucus showing him with double digit support, which was mostly due to Gingrich tanking during the same two weeks.

For someone to surge, someone else needs to tank. While Cruz is losing some steam he isn't the subject of the kind of mutli-faceted negative campaign like Gingrich was.
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jfern
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« Reply #9 on: January 28, 2016, 10:51:41 PM »

And another 4 days before that he was 8. There can be a lot of movement at the end, and it's obvious that included a fair amount that was too late to be captured in the polls.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #10 on: January 28, 2016, 11:01:19 PM »
uh, you guys know that Santorum did not win the nomination, right?
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