If Trump is the Republican nominee, is the general election going to be close?

[All Along The Watchtower]

Yes, in all likelihood.

Think about it: Trump is widely perceived to be something of a trailblazer on issues like opposing illegal immigration, the resettlement of Syrian refugees in the U.S., and free trade agreements. He has struck a chord with millions of angry, deeply jaded and cynical Americans who genuinely despise the political class in Washington, and who recognize that the career politicians that they have voted for don't give a damn about ordinary men and women (if they're not actively contemptuous toward their voters). That sense of frustration, bitterness, and anger is palatable, and Trump has successfully harnessed it.

Furthermore, the Democratic Party runs the real risk of being rejected by voters who are deeply concerned about Islamic terrorism, Iran, Russia, China, and just a general sense that the world is more violent and chaotic than ever. In our globalized world, what happens in the rest of the world has real consequences for American interests - both at home and abroad. And Trump recognizes that.

Finally, this is a wide-open race after 8 years of a Democratic Presidency. In the context of everything I mentioned previously, in addition to the real possibility that the American economic recovery will slow considerably (if not collapse entirely) by November, the Republicans have a real shot at winning this race. And Donald Trump could win not just the Republican base regions in the South and the Great Plains, but also, make inroads into the Midwest, the Rust Belt, and even the Northeast. That would be truly impressive indeed.

Of course, no one has a crystal ball. But this is just how I see the general election panning out, at this point, anyway.

[Virginiá]

Nope. I do see Trump actually bringing new voters into the fold, but he's going to lose a lot of other moderate Republican voters as well. In addition, he's igniting a fire under the Hispanic electorate. Republicans cannot afford to have Hispanic turnout rates skyrocket, and that is exactly what Trump is helping create. Every group of people has a trigger that gets them voting, and Trump may well be it for them. So in the end, he will probably have a rather large net loss.

At the very least, can we please stop assuming he won't alienate other voters? Everyone seems to assume that this blathering moron is the Jesus of politics and can't possibly drive people away from the GOP. A lot of people still prefer to see the White House as an institution of respect and not a playground for a reality TV star.

[Lief 🗽]

Nah, I figure TRUMP can only dominate and win in a landslide or collapse totally and lose in a landslide.

[Ljube]

Nah, I figure TRUMP can only dominate and win in a landslide or collapse totally and lose in a landslide.

[Torie]

Nah, I figure TRUMP can only dominate and win in a landslide or collapse totally and lose in a landslide.

We'll it is more like Trump wins narrowly or loses in a rout, as the range of possibilities, but yes, I think the bell curve for possible outcomes for Trump is flatter than for the other candidates. He can't win in a landslide, and lose voters like myself. I don't see how that is possible.

[Asian Nazi]

Nah, I figure TRUMP can only dominate and win in a landslide or collapse totally and lose in a landslide.

[ProudModerate2]

Nope. I do see Trump actually bringing new voters into the fold, but he's going to lose a lot of other moderate Republican voters as well. In addition, he's igniting a fire under the Hispanic electorate. Republicans cannot afford to have Hispanic turnout rates skyrocket, and that is exactly what Trump is helping create. Every group of people has a trigger that gets them voting, and Trump may well be it for them. So in the end, he will probably have a rather large net loss.

At the very least, can we please stop assuming he won't alienate other voters? Everyone seems to assume that this blathering moron is the Jesus of politics and can't possibly drive people away from the GOP. A lot of people still prefer to see the White House as an institution of respect and not a playground for a reality TV star.

Good analysis.
Agree.

[Skye]

I can only see Trump winning big if the Dem nominee utterly collapses. For example, Hillary being shot down by scandals, or Bernie falling under all those "He's a socialist" attacks. Otherwise, I think he's probably going to lose like McCain.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

It may be close between him, Sanders, and Bloomberg, but Bloomberg should prevail.

[Ronnie]

Nah, I figure TRUMP can only dominate and win in a landslide or collapse totally and lose in a landslide.

We'll it is more like Trump wins narrowly or loses in a rout, as the range of possibilities, but yes, I think the bell curve for possible outcomes for Trump is flatter than for the other candidates. He can't win in a landslide, and lose voters like myself. I don't see how that is possible.

Torie, are you only sporting that red avatar because Trump and Cruz are the front runners?  I'm pretty certain you are a Pub at heart.

[Krago]

but it seems likely the Cuban vote would abandon him to a greater degree than Romney.  

Has Obama's opening of relations with Cuba been a net vote-winner for Democrats among Cuban-Americans in Florida, or a vote loser?  I don't think I've heard Cruz or Rubio mention it during any of the debates.

[LLR]

Realistically, no, it would be a 1964-like landslide.

[pho]

We shouldn't discount polarization. Even if the nominee's are Trump and Sanders, the floor for each party is probably 43-45%. A 1964/1984 style landslide just isn't plausible in the modern era.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I predict 54-45 Trump over Clinton, but he'll get a Reagan 84 margin against Sanders.

[Mehmentum]

I have no idea how close the election will be or who will win, but I do know that it will be a wild ride.

[Sbane]

I think the Black vote could be key. Trump will be able to get a lot of blue collar whites out to vote for him who usually don't vote and a lot of well off, college educated/cosmopolitan whites will end up holding their nose and voting for him (but certainly not at levels above Romney). On the flip side, there will be some consolidation against him among Hispanics and Asians, with turnout being the wild card.

The Democrats will likely hold the western swing states like Colorado and Nevada. The midwest and VA/FL will be key and the black vote will really matter. It will really matter in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (though Trump may not do so well in the upper midwest). Trump will have to tamp down on the demagoguery though if he wants to do better with the Black vote, but he does have a chance....

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I think the Black vote could be key. Trump will be able to get a lot of blue collar whites out to vote for him who usually don't vote and a lot of well off, college educated/cosmopolitan whites will end up holding their nose and voting for him (but certainly not at levels above Romney). On the flip side, there will be some consolidation against him among Hispanics and Asians, with turnout being the wild card.

The Democrats will likely hold the western swing states like Colorado and Nevada. The midwest and VA/FL will be key and the black vote will really matter. It will really matter in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (though Trump may not do so well in the upper midwest). Trump will have to tamp down on the demagoguery though if he wants to do better with the Black vote, but he does have a chance....

I think Trump has a much better chance at CO & NV than VA.

[President Johnson]

Of course. I think that The Donald would also be extremly strong in rust belt. Honestly, I say that he has the best chance out of the Republicans to win.

[Adam the Gr8]

No, worse than 2012 if he's against Hillary.

[Sbane]

I think the Black vote could be key. Trump will be able to get a lot of blue collar whites out to vote for him who usually don't vote and a lot of well off, college educated/cosmopolitan whites will end up holding their nose and voting for him (but certainly not at levels above Romney). On the flip side, there will be some consolidation against him among Hispanics and Asians, with turnout being the wild card.

The Democrats will likely hold the western swing states like Colorado and Nevada. The midwest and VA/FL will be key and the black vote will really matter. It will really matter in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (though Trump may not do so well in the upper midwest). Trump will have to tamp down on the demagoguery though if he wants to do better with the Black vote, but he does have a chance....

I think Trump has a much better chance at CO & NV than VA.

How? You really think the Denver suburbs are going to be into him? And while Trump may have a better chance at having Nevada whites swing more towards him, the state also has a large population of Hispanics AND Asians.

[Clark Kent]

No. He loses badly if it's Hillary, and wins in a landslide if it's Comrade Sanders.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, its gonna be a close election

[IceSpear]

Nah, I figure TRUMP can only dominate and win in a landslide or collapse totally and lose in a landslide.

[tallguy23]

I think his support is overrated frankly. Once the general electorate tunes in and really starts listening, they'll be embarrassed. I think he only wins if the economy crashes BIG TIME or we have another 9/11 that makes the Dems look bad.

I'm betting most moderates and some Republicans will hold their noses and vote Hillary (or not vote at all). Meanwhile, Latinos and staunch Democrats will turnout in high numbers to vote against him.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

No, especially if Hispanic turnout is strong and is even MORE Democratic than it is now. Moderate Republicans will probably go for Hillary too, I know I will.