A New America Series - 1996 Primaries

[Mr. Smith]

And as for who goes with Gore...perhaps Wellstone?

[Boston Bread]

Where are all the Dem voters?

[Sumner 1868]

Where are all the Dem voters?

Dunno. Quayle voters?

[Maxwell]

Democratic turnout is exactly half of GOP turnout - a sign of things to come?

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

I'd be disengaged too if my party failed to beat Jack Kemp not once but twice.

[Maxwell]

I had to make a choice on the Democratic side...

A New America Series - 1996 Primaries

The Republican side was expected to be a walk for Vice President Gary Lewis. Lewis effectively drummed up Republican donors, endorsements, and his fundraising haul proved so large that he thought he had sufficiently scared off serious challengers. But as Former Governor Ross Perot unexpectedly made another run, Perot and Lewis were basically in a cage match for a long time. Signs began to show quickly that Lewis was losing when the first caucuses, Alaska and Louisiana, showed Lewis in a very distant 2nd and 4th respectively, while Perot managed to win them. At the beginning of the cycle, Iowa was considered the home of the religious conservatives, and as a result, an easy Bill Armstrong win. But Dan Quayle, generally the third place candidate in all of the polls, managed a last minute surge in the state and beat Armstrong by a solid five points. This crippled Armstrong to the point of dropping out. Then New Hampshire, the state Lewis had long aimed his resources at, decided to give one of the lower tier candidates, Governor Pete Wilson, a resurgence. Lewis' campaign continued to crater, even as he vowed to remain in the race. Despite losing both states, Perot had enough support and enough resources to continue to run. So in the end, it was a three way match-up between Senator Dan Quayle, a favorite of fairly normal conservatives, Pete Wilson, favorite of anti-immigrant moderates, and Ross Perot, a favorite of people sort of in the middle. Quayle's coalition proved to be the strongest in terms of pure votes, but in terms of delegates, Quayle required the endorsement of Lewis and Armstrong in order to receive the delegate count he needed. (Paulus would also be a minor and deciding force in many races, especially in New England and in the West Coast)



Senator Dan Quayle (R-IN) - 27.6%
Governor Pete Wilson (R-CA) - 24.1%
Former Governor H. Ross Perot (R-TX) - 20.7%
Former Governor Norma Paulus (R-OR) - 10.3%
Vice President Gary Lewis (R-KS) - 6.9%
Ambassador ALAN KEYES (R-MD) - 6.9%
Senator Bill Armstrong (R-CO) - 3.4%

Former President Jerry Brown, on the outset, looked obviously like the favorite, with Ann Richards, Al Gore, and Joe Biden running close. Originally the race looked completely shaken up when Biden managed a surprise victory in both Iowa (killing Dick Gephardt) and New Hampshire (killing Harry Sparks), but revelations over Biden's long list of plagiarism slowed his campaign to a crawl. Despite wins by both Biden and Gore, both of their campaigns would cede to the pressure and lose oxygen in a dogfight between Brown and Richards. Ann Richards, a wily populist from Texas, clowned Brown for his elitism, and paraded herself as a candidate for the poor while Brown a candidate of the wealthy, limosine liberals. This message managed to reach whites and blacks alike, who begun to view Brown more negatively. Tied in the votes, Richards managed to win more delegates by closing the gap in New York, Wisconsin, Minnesota while almost completely shutting Brown and others out in Michigan, Ohio, Texas, and Florida. In order for Brown to win outright, he needed a 70% win in California. When Richards pulled 35% to Brown's 49%, it was doom for him: Richards could copple together a coalition while Brown (who seriously alienated Gore, Simon, and Gantt with attack ads) could not.



Governor Ann Richards (D-TX) - 28.6%
Former President Jerry Brown (D-CA) - 28.6%
Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) - 14.3%
Senator Al Gore (D-TN) - 14.3%
Senator Harvey Gantt (D-NC) - 7.1%
Senator Paul Simon (D-IL) - 7.1%