Your Iowa GOP Predictions.

[Senator Cris]

My average of polls:

32% Trump
25% Cruz
16% Rubio
  9% Carson
  4% Bush
  3% Paul
  3% Huckabee
  2% Kasich
  2% Christie
  2% Fiorina
  1% Santorum
  0% Gilmore
  0% Others

My personal prediction (no polls):

27% Trump
22% Cruz
20% Rubio
  7% Carson
  6% Paul
  5% Bush
  5% Huckabee
  3% Christie
  2% Fiorina
  2% Kasich
  1% Santorum
  0% Gilmore
  0% Others

[Torie]

25% Trump
23% Cruz
23% Rubio
  8% Carson
  5% Bush
  4% Paul
  3% Huckabee
  3% Christie
  2% Fiorina
  2% Kasich
  1% Santorum
  1% Gilmore/Others
 

[Maxwell]

Here's my final prediction I posted elsewhere and corrected for a math error:

35% Trump
21% Rubio
16% Cruz
10% Paul
5% Carson
4% Jeb
4% Huckabee
3% Christie
1% Kasich
1% Fiorina
0% Santorum
0% Gilmore

Cruz is falling like a ton of bricks, a lot of his numbers go to Trump, Paul, and a spice of Rubio and Huckabee.

[Ronnie]

Ted Cruz - 27%
Donald Trump - 22%
Marco Rubio - 20%
Ben Carson - 11%
Rand Paul - 7%
Jeb Bush - 5%
Mike Huckabee - 4%
Chris Christie - 2%
Rick Santorum - 1%
Carly Fiorina - 1%

[pho]

32% Trump
25% Cruz
16% Rubio
 9% Paul
 6% Carson
 4% Bush
 2% Santorum
 2% Huckabee
 2% Christie
 1% Kasich
 1% Fiorina
 0% Gilmore

[Cruzcrew]

Cruz-25
Trump-24
Rubio-19
Paul-10
Carson-9
Bush-4
Huckabee-3
Christie-3
Kasich-1
Santorum-1
Fiorina-1

[ProgCon]

Prediction of the final top 5:

32% - Trump
22% - Cruz
13% - Rubio
11% - Paul
08% - Carson

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I said Clinton 47-45 and sticking to that.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I said Clinton 47-45 and sticking to that.

I'm absolutely 100% sure that Clinton will not win the GOP caucus.

[bballrox4717]

Trump - 28
Rubio - 23
Cruz - 22
Paul - 7
Carson - 6
Bush - 4
Christie - 3
Kasich - 2
Fiorina - 2
Huckabee - 2
Santorum - 1
Gilmore - 0

Trump's turnout game is weak but has the support to win anyways. Cruz gets caught halfway through a tumble and winds up in third place. Rubio's work in the evangelical community pays off and vaults him into the 20 + percent range, taking votes from Carson and Cruz. Paul's solid debate performance knocks off a point or two from Cruz that proves vital. Carson completely collapses.

Carson, Huckabee and Santorum all drop out. Support and donations for Fiorina completely dries up but she stays on until New Hampshire anyways. Cruz pulls out in New Hampshire to focus on South Carolina while Rubio and Trump split his supporters. Bush, Kasich, and Christie begin to sell a 3rd place finish in New Hampshire to their donors as Rubio begins to poll a decisive second. Trump continues to have a commanding lead both nationally and in the rest of the early states.

[Penelope]

31%  Trump
24%  Rubio
18%  Cruz
  8%  Carson
  5%  Bush
  4%  Huckabee
  4%  Paul
  2%  Santorum
  1%  Christie
  1%  Fiorina
  1%  Kasich
  0%  Gilmore

  1%  Others

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Shocker of the cycle: RUBIO 25%
Trump: 24%
Cruz: 23%
Paul: 9%
Carson: 6%
Huckabee: 4%
Bush: 4%
Christie: 2%
Fiorina: 1%
Huckabee: 1%

Others: 1%

[Lief 🗽]

Won't be predicting anything until we see Selzer here. But I'm not buying the Rubio surge. Seems like wishful thinking from the media.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Won't be predicting anything until we see Selzer here. But I'm not buying the Rubio surge. Seems like wishful thinking from the media.

[Xing]

For now...

Trump 29%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 16%
Carson 9%
Paul 6%
Bush 4%
Huckabee 3%
Christie 3%
Kasich 2%
Fiorina 1%
All others <1%

[Cory]

Carson, Huckabee and Santorum all drop out. Support and donations for Fiorina completely dries up but she stays on until New Hampshire anyways. Cruz pulls out in New Hampshire to focus on South Carolina while Rubio and Trump split his supporters. Bush, Kasich, and Christie begin to sell a 3rd place finish in New Hampshire to their donors as Rubio begins to poll a decisive second. Trump continues to have a commanding lead both nationally and in the rest of the early states.

I don't see how that works. How does the third place winner (behind Rubio, who get's third in Iowa and a strong second in NH) even begin to suggest that establishment donors should continue funding their campaigns when Rubio is clearly the only serious alternative?

[Vern]

29% Rubio
25% Cruz
21% Trump
 9% Paul

[Lurker]

For all the talk about the Selzer poll, wasn't it way off abo the 2012 Iowa Caucus?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

For all the talk about the Selzer poll, wasn't it way off abo the 2012 Iowa Caucus?

IIRC it was the most accurate and it correctly predicted the last minute surge of Rick Santorum

[Lurker]

For all the talk about the Selzer poll, wasn't it way off abo the 2012 Iowa Caucus?

IIRC it was the most accurate and it correctly predicted the last minute surge of Rick Santorum

I checked, and it had Santorum trailing Romney by nine points. (Santorum 15, Paul 22, Romney 24). Though to be fair, it did show him very close on the last day of polling.

[seanNJ9]

I think Rubio overtakes Cruz and the establishment coalesce around Rubio moving forward.

[Slow Learner]

Trump - 36%
Cruz - 20%
Rubio - 14%
Huckabee - 6%
Carson - 5%
Bush - 5%
Gilmore (lol) - 3%
Santorum - 3%
Christie - 3%
Paul - 1%
Kasich/Fiorina - <1%

y not

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Cruz 27%
Trump 25%
Rubio 21%
Paul 8%
Carson 7%
Bush 5%
Huckabee 3%
Christie 2%
Fiorina 1%
Santorum 1%
Gilmore 0%

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

For all the talk about the Selzer poll, wasn't it way off abo the 2012 Iowa Caucus?

IIRC it was the most accurate and it correctly predicted the last minute surge of Rick Santorum

I checked, and it had Santorum trailing Romney by nine points. (Santorum 15, Paul 22, Romney 24). Though to be fair, it did show him very close on the last day of polling.

Also no one thought or could have known Santorum could have won Iowa, everyone was proven wrong lol

[Torie]

Won't be predicting anything until we see Selzer here. But I'm not buying the Rubio surge. Seems like wishful thinking from the media.

Wimpish. Obviously, after it comes out, one can revise one's predictions. I certainly will, if mine are way off. But I feel I am on the start of a winning streak, so I am hoping that they are not far off. Of course, unless the latest Trump antics are taken into account in the poll, I will probably shave his number.