...but I have a feeling Selzer is going to show a MoE race. And I'd take one Selzer poll over 10 other polls (learned my lesson from 2014.)
Same here. There's just too much variation between the others. 4/13 since last Monday (I chose this date because there was a six day gap before Monday the 18th) have favored Bernie and 9/13 have favored Hillary. Selzer is not among the 13. The 13 polls range from +29 for Hillary to +8 for Bernie. That's a 37 point range, which is ridiculous. Selzer's last poll (1/7-1/10) had Hillary ahead by 2% with a whopping 14% still undecided.
Between the somewhat random polling, the way that votes are reported (by delegates, not straw poll vote), O'Malley's continued existence at about 4-5%, and the general closeness, it'll be close and that's what I'm predicting Selzer to show tomorrow.
I'd agree with your MoE guess. I'm still predicting a narrow Sanders win, but we'll see come Monday evening. A lot will depend on who turns out to vote and the quirks of the caucus sytem itself.
