IA-Gravis Marketing: Trump/Cruz close, Clinton at 53% (user search)
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  IA-Gravis Marketing: Trump/Cruz close, Clinton at 53% (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA-Gravis Marketing: Trump/Cruz close, Clinton at 53%  (Read 2010 times)
Sorenroy
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Posts: 1,701
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Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -5.91

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« on: January 29, 2016, 06:10:06 PM »

I would remind everyone that the last Gravis poll in Iowa (conducted over a two day period from 1/11/2016-1/12/2016) showed Clinton at 57% to Sanders's 36% (O'Malley at 7%). This poll was off of the general trendline by 10.1% for Clinton and 7.6% for Sanders. It has a "C" rating at 538 and is in general awful. I would agree that Clinton is probably leading, but don't say that Gravis proves anything. It's a dumb outlier that shows almost nothing. In fact if it is off the margin it was last time (assuming the other polls are correct), Sanders would be at 49.6% beating Clinton's 42.9%.



(I took out the Gravis polls so they weren't affecting the trend.)
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Sorenroy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,701
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -5.91

P P
« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2016, 06:59:08 PM »

I would remind everyone that the last Gravis poll in Iowa (conducted over a two day period from 1/11/2016-1/12/2016) showed Clinton at 57% to Sanders's 36% (O'Malley at 7%). This poll was off of the general trendline by 10.1% for Clinton and 7.6% for Sanders. It has a "C" rating at 538 and is in general awful. I would agree that Clinton is probably leading, but don't say that Gravis proves anything. It's a dumb outlier that shows almost nothing. In fact if it is off the margin it was last time (assuming the other polls are correct), Sanders would be at 49.6% beating Clinton's 42.9%.



(I took out the Gravis polls so they weren't affecting the trend.)

Never try to unskew Gravis, they're not even self-consistent. There was that crazy national poll with Webb at 12% and Chafee at 8%.

Sorry, my point wasn't to say that the polls were actually 49.6-42.9 Sanders, my point was to show how absurd their polls are to the people that were saying that this shows that New Hampshire will become competitive. If I was trying to unskew them, I would look at the breakdown of their polls for odd sample sizes, not just throw a flat rate from one candidate to another.
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