Put a Rating on the US Senate for 2016 - Winter 2016

[ElectionsGuy]

Previous threads:

Fall
Summer

Nothing has changed from my view. Toss-Up.

[Young Conservative]

Likely R

[Xing]

Toss-Up.

[MT Treasurer]

Tossup/Tilt R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will secure NH, FL, NV, CO, IL & WI for 51-50 senate control

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Leans R

[Sumner 1868]

Leans R

[smoltchanov]

Tossup/Tilt R.

+1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sabato Crystal Ball gives Dems a very good chance at a 51/50 Majority wit Trump as nominee.

[Higgs]

Likely R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

SENATE  is gonna flip, upon a Trump candidacy, non of GOP senators have endorsed Trump and Dems are targetting OH, Pa, FL, IL & WI.

[pbrower2a]

My take (and rationale):

Approval polls only.




Gray -- no incumbent at risk.
White -- retiring incumbent or (should it happen) an incumbent defeated in a primary, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.
Yellow -- incumbent under indictment or with a terminal diagnosis short of the completion of his term, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.

Light green -- Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.
Light orange --  Democratic incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.

Blue  -- Republican running for re-election with current polls available.
Red -- Democrat running for re-election with current polls available.

Intensity percentage shows the first digit of the approval of the incumbent Senator --

"2" for approval between 20% and 30%, "3" for approval between 30% and 39%... "7" for approval between 70% and 79%.

Numbers are recent approval ratings for incumbent Senators if their approvals are below 55%. I'm not showing any number for any incumbent whose approval is 55% or higher because even this early that looks very safe.

An asterisk (*) is for an appointed incumbent (there are none now) because appointed pols have never shown their electability.

Approval only (although I might accept A/B/C/D/F) -- not favorability. I do not use any Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor ratings because "fair" is ambiguous. A fair performance by a 7-year-old violinist might impress you. A 'fair' performance by an adult violinist indicates something for which you would not want to buy a ticket.

NO PARTISAN POLLS.

What I see so far with incumbents:

App      Rep  Dem

<40       7     0
40-44    2     0
45-49    0      2
50-54    4      0
55-59    0      0
>60       0      2
retire    3      3 
indict     0      1
oth off  1      0
no poll  6      2


Now -- my projection for the 2016 Senate election:

Sure R:

Alabama
Idaho
Iowa
North Dakota
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah

Likely R:
Alaska
Kansas


Edge R:
Arizona
Arkansas
Indiana
Kentucky
Louisiana

Tossups
Georgia (from Edge R)
Missouri
Nevada
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania


All but one of the current tossups are current R seats.

Edge D:
Colorado
Florida*
New Hampshire*


Likely D:
Oregon
Washington


Solid D:
California
Connecticut
Hawaii
Illinois*
Maryland
Vermont
Wisconsin*


*flip (so far all R to D)

New Jersey looks like a fairly sure hold should current, but indicted, Senator Bob Menendez be compelled to resign.

[Skye]

Leans R.

[Vega]

The Dems are shaping up to have some pretty great candidates, so I think several seats which are in the lean R category will be called into question a few months from now, and a Trump nomination could push AR, IN, MO, and NC into the tilt D side, along with the already likely pickups in IL and WI.

I can't help but think all the same that Democrats made a big mistake in not finding a decent candidate in PA (and we have a pretty good bench). All the current candidates have 56-40 loser written all over them.

So, I'd say Tilt D, as a whole.

[Miles]

Tossup/Tilt R.

+1

+1

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The Dems are shaping up to have some pretty great candidates, so I think several seats which are in the lean R category will be called into question a few months from now, and a Trump nomination could push AR, IN, MO, and NC into the tilt D side, along with the already likely pickups in IL and WI.

I can't help but think all the same that Democrats made a big mistake in not finding a decent candidate in PA (and we have a pretty good bench). All the current candidates have 56-40 loser written all over them.

So, I'd say Tilt D, as a whole.

Arkansas? Seriously? Or did you mean Arizona?

[Maxwell]

Lean R.

Two seats are basically guaranteed for the Democrats - Wisconsin and Illinois. But beyond that it gets tricky:

New Hampshire - Ayotte still has solid numbers, and Hassan made a not so great opening move with her own party by barring Syrian Immigrants.

Arizona - If McCain falls I see the potential for Senator Kirkpatrick. Otherwise, McCain is probably fine.

Florida - Murphy would be a great recruit but so far he looks pretty underwhelming in that he can't brush off ALAN GRAYSON. I think this is a Lean Republican hold if things keep going the way they are going.

Indiana - Hill is wave insurance, move past this.

Kentucky - Gray is wave insurance, move past this.

Missouri - Kander is wave insurance, you guessed it.

Nevada - the lone potential Republican pick-up looks pretty good - Heck and Cortez Masto will probably go down to the wire. That's pretty troubling.

North Carolina - All we can hope for is GREG BRANNON UPSET. Otherwise, Safe R.

Ohio - Portman is a strong incumbent but Strickland is a strong recruit. Or at least that's how it looked, but so far Strickland has been kind of underwhelming. Lean R.

Pennsylvania - the primary is a f'ing mess, Sestak is a name of the past, McGinty looks good on paper but doesn't really translate to reality and I like Fetterman but he seems like the classic high risk high reward candidate. Plus Toomey is raising funds like crazy. I suspect he holds on.

So yeah, not all that promising.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tossup, I say Dems win OH or NH, FL, NV, CO, WI and IL. DEMS net 4-6 seats but OH and Pa, inc are below 50, Portman or Toomey arent assued anything.

Especially, Toomey who  Dems will spend a ton money on in Pa, and Rendell support.

So, I say 51 with Pa after NH & FL.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Toss-up.

Here are my state rankings:

Safe R
Alabama
Idaho
Iowa
Kansas
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota

Strong R
Alaska
Arkansas
Georgia
Kentucky
Utah

Lean R
Arizona
Indiana
Louisiana
North Carolina

Toss-up
Colorado
Florida
Illinois
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Lean D
California
Connecticut
Maryland

Strong D
Hawaii
Oregon
Washington

Safe D
New York
Vermont

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean Republican.

Dems will win WI, IL and likely FL. The chances in NH and OH are ~30-40%. Chance in PA around 20-25%. Meanwhile 50% chance GOP picks up NV. CO is relatively safe for Dems, Bennett will prevail. Dems may win AZ if McCain loses his primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pa,IL,FL,NH,CO, NV  are absolutely critical to get Dems the WH combined with the 272-266 blue Wall & a Clinton-Castro ticket, Latino corridor is critical plus FL. No, McGinty or Sestak shouldn't be counted out, its Pennsylvania. CLINTON or Bernie needs those 20 electors to seal the deal over Trump

Tossup/Tilt D 51-50 D Senators

Dem favored
IL kirk
WI Johnson
FL Rubio
CO Bennett

Tossup/ Tilt D
NV Reid
NH Ayotte
PA Toomey

[President Johnson]

Absolutely a toss-up. Dems have a good shot if they win the presidency.

[pbrower2a]

Republicans simply have too many ways to lose. They will of course raise money fiendishly and spend heavily upon attack ads as in 2014... but this won't be 2014 all over. Republicans have too many weak spots.

A hint: a Democrat won the Governorship in Louisiana. This bodes many close races, and when a Party has so many seats to lose and so few that they can gain, then everything will have to go right for them in a Presidential year. They need to be blowing out the opposition in almost every seat taht they now have to have a chance to hold the election.   
.
Lean D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems should focus on winning Pa, NH, WI & IL as well as CO & NV, that is the 272 -266 blue wall. If Grayson is nominee, I would focus on Ohio.

Sestak or McGinty shouldn't be underestimated, especially in Pa, which is key, thats why convention is there.

[Kingpoleon]

Tossup/Tilt R.