Put a Rating on the US Senate for 2016 - Winter 2016

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will win NH, FL, WI, IL, OH or PA, CO, NV 3-6 seats

[smoltchanov]

Dems will win NH, FL, WI, IL, OH or PA, CO, NV 3-6 seats

As usual - way too optimistic. WI, CO  and IL - probably yes. FL, NV - pure tossup. PA, OH and NH - tilt R in my book for now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Strickland has been leading in every poll QU has him up. Dems will beat Portman . DEMS will win WI, IL, CO, NV, OH, NH, FL for a total of 5 seats. Dems arent conceding OH . DEMS dont need FL. They can certainly win Pa, OH, CO, NV, NH, IL, & WI. I like Sestak & Strickland and want them to win, badley.

Trump or Cruz are weak in Potomac OH & Va.

[smoltchanov]

Strickland has been leading in every poll QU has him up. Dems will beat Portman . DEMS will win WI, IL, CO, NV, OH, NH, FL for a total of 5 seats. Dems arent conceding OH . DEMS dont need FL. They can certainly win Pa, OH, CO, NV, NH, IL, & WI. I like Sestak & Strickland and want them to win, badley.

Trump or Cruz are weak in Potomac OH & Va.

As i said - i envy your unbridled optimism. And i remember a lot of similar people who predicted even in late October of 2014 that Democrats will preserve Senate majority. Some even predicted that Democrats would gain seats)))))

[pbrower2a]

Strickland has been leading in every poll QU has him up. Dems will beat Portman . DEMS will win WI, IL, CO, NV, OH, NH, FL for a total of 5 seats. Dems arent conceding OH . DEMS dont need FL. They can certainly win Pa, OH, CO, NV, NH, IL, & WI. I like Sestak & Strickland and want them to win, badley.

Trump or Cruz are weak in Potomac OH & Va.

As i said - i envy your unbridled optimism. And i remember a lot of similar people who predicted even in late October of 2014 that Democrats will preserve Senate majority. Some even predicted that Democrats would gain seats)))))

2014 was arguably the best year for Republicans ever. Republicans have plenty of Senate seats to lose and few opportunities for gain. Approval of Congress remains abysmal. A high-turnout election generally favors Democrats. Younger voters tend liberal and Democratic.

Republicans still have the edge in fundraising and the ability to produce attack ads by front groups. 

[smoltchanov]

Strickland has been leading in every poll QU has him up. Dems will beat Portman . DEMS will win WI, IL, CO, NV, OH, NH, FL for a total of 5 seats. Dems arent conceding OH . DEMS dont need FL. They can certainly win Pa, OH, CO, NV, NH, IL, & WI. I like Sestak & Strickland and want them to win, badley.

Trump or Cruz are weak in Potomac OH & Va.

As i said - i envy your unbridled optimism. And i remember a lot of similar people who predicted even in late October of 2014 that Democrats will preserve Senate majority. Some even predicted that Democrats would gain seats)))))

2014 was arguably the best year for Republicans ever. Republicans have plenty of Senate seats to lose and few opportunities for gain. Approval of Congress remains abysmal. A high-turnout election generally favors Democrats. Younger voters tend liberal and Democratic.

Republicans still have the edge in fundraising and the ability to produce attack ads by front groups. 

Stick to my prediction. I see Democrats winning 49 seats, but, for now, not 50. And even in that case Democrats are sure to lose Senate in 2018. May be - by bigger margin then after 2014...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems will pick up gov mansions all over, in NV, FL and IL. This will hold down GOP congressional gains in midwest. Rauner is surely gone and MI, with debacle of Synder will go Dem.  

The Dems, will be advantaged this election cycle. DEFEND 272 BLUE WALL & put OH & Va in play. Thats what Obama did so well against Romney.

[pbrower2a]

Rocky Mountain Polling shows this binary matchup involving John McCain (Senator, R-AZ):

McCain (R) 38
Kilpatrick (D) 37

in contrast to a poll from November:

McCain (R) 37
Kilpatrick (D) 31


This is enough to make Arizona a tossup in my rating.
 

[pbrower2a]

New rating based on Arizona (John McCain in a dead heat and likely to get less than 40% of the vote in a binary matchup even if it is a very slight lead)


Now -- my projection for the 2016 Senate election:

Sure R:

Alabama
Idaho
Iowa
North Dakota
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah

Likely R:
Alaska
Kansas


Edge R:

Arkansas
Indiana
Kentucky
Louisiana

Tossups
Arizona (from Edge R)
Georgia (from Edge R)
Missouri
Nevada
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania


All but one of the current tossups are current R seats.

Edge D:
Colorado
Florida*
New Hampshire*


Likely D:
Oregon
Washington


Solid D:
California
Connecticut
Hawaii
Illinois*
Maryland
Vermont
Wisconsin*


*flip (so far all R to D)

New Jersey looks like a fairly sure hold should current, but indicted, Senator Bob Menendez be compelled to resign.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D
FL, CO, IL, WI, NV, NH

Pure Tossup
Pa Pat Toomey

Special in NJ should Menendez get indicted

But, Strickland, Deb Ross or Kirkpatrick will win if Dems get to 290 electors instead of 272, and Trump is a flawed nominee

[Orser67]

I would say Tilt D, but that's largely because I'm optimistic about the presidential race. There are a lot of close races that should be within a few points of the presidential race.

I also think any outcome between R+2 and D+10 is plausible. D+10 may seem like a lot, but Dems recruited well and have a lot of targets in states that elected Democrats to the Senate in recent years (and AZ, where McCain is polling poorly and Dems have a solid candidate).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Portman which is considered safe have been polling like Ayotte and McCain and the GOP in FL. Rather than like Toomey.  Dens have a strong recruit in Ted Strickland. Trumpster have been consistently behind in OH & Va polling.

[This account no longer in use.]

Toss-up. If all goes well for them, Democrats will make at least two pickups in Duckworth and Feingold. However, they would also need to both pickup Ayotte's seat and keep Reid's vacated seat, both of which appear to be leaning R. Florida is a pure tossup at this point, so I feel that FL would also be a major factor in Senate control.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Trump or Bernie Sanders are the nominees, R's definitely wilt win Senate control. Defend NV and/ CO and pick up Pa/NH and win FL. To have a 51-50 split. Hilary will be nominee

[°Leprechaun]

toss up

[pbrower2a]

Toomey, Portman Hurt By Supreme Court Stance
Date: 2-22-16
New Public Policy Polling surveys of Pennsylvania and Ohio find that both Pat Toomey and Rob Portman are suffering from very weak approval numbers as they seek reelection to the Senate. Furthermore voters in their states, by wide margins, want the vacancy on the Supreme Court to be filled this year. Their opposition to even considering a replacement for Antonin Scalia has the strong potential to put them in even worse standing with voters than they are already.
 
Key findings from the survey include:

-Only 29% of voters approve of the job Toomey is doing to 40% who disapprove, and just 30% approve of the job Portman is doing to 39% who disapprove. They’re both very much in the danger zone for reelection based on those low approval numbers. One thing complicating their path to reelection is how  bad the overall brand of Senate Republicans is. Mitch McConnell has a 13/56 approval rating in Pennsylvania, and a 14/57 one in Ohio. His extreme unpopularity is going to be a weight on his party’s incumbents running across the country.
 
-Strong majorities of voters- 58/35 in Ohio and 57/40 in Pennsylvania- think that the vacant seat on the Supreme Court should be filled this year. What’s particularly noteworthy about those numbers- and concerning for Portman and Toomey- is how emphatic the support for approving a replacement is among independent voters. In Ohio they think a new Justice should be named this year 70/24 and in Pennsylvania it’s 60/37. Those independent voters are going to make the difference in these tight Senate races, and they have no tolerance for obstructionism on the vacancy.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/OHPASupremeCourtPolls22216.pdf


My take (and rationale):

Approval polls only.

Until I see evidence that Republicans will not play obstructionist games with a vacant US Senate seat, I am compelled to drop my ratings of the chances of re-election of Senators Portman and Toomey.




Gray -- no incumbent at risk.
White -- retiring incumbent or (should it happen) an incumbent defeated in a primary, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.
Yellow -- incumbent under indictment or with a terminal diagnosis short of the completion of his term, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.

Light green -- Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.
Light orange --  Democratic incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.

Blue  -- Republican running for re-election with current polls available.
Red -- Democrat running for re-election with current polls available.

Intensity percentage shows the first digit of the approval of the incumbent Senator --

"2" for approval between 20% and 30%, "3" for approval between 30% and 39%... "7" for approval between 70% and 79%.

Numbers are recent approval ratings for incumbent Senators if their approvals are below 55%. I'm not showing any number for any incumbent whose approval is 55% or higher because even this early that looks very safe.

An asterisk (*) is for an appointed incumbent (there are none now) because appointed pols have never shown their electability.

Approval only (although I might accept A/B/C/D/F) -- not favorability. I do not use any Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor ratings because "fair" is ambiguous. A fair performance by a 7-year-old violinist might impress you. A 'fair' performance by an adult violinist indicates something for which you would not want to buy a ticket.

NO PARTISAN POLLS.

What I see so far with incumbents:

App      Rep  Dem

<40       7     0
40-44    2     0
45-49    0      2
50-54    4      0
55-59    0      0
>60       0      2
retire    3      3 
indict     0      1
oth off  1      0
no poll  6      2


Now -- my projection for the 2016 Senate election:

Sure R:

Alabama
Idaho
Iowa
North Dakota
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah

Likely R:
Alaska
Kansas


Edge R:
Arizona
Arkansas
Indiana
Kentucky
Louisiana

Tossups
Georgia (from Edge R)
Missouri
Nevada
North Carolina


All but one of the current tossups are current R seats.

Edge D:
Colorado
Florida*
New Hampshire*
Ohio*
Pennsylvania*


Likely D:
Oregon
Washington


Solid D:
California
Connecticut
Hawaii
Illinois*
Maryland
Vermont
Wisconsin*


*flip (so far all R to D)

New Jersey looks like a fairly sure hold should current, but indicted, Senator Bob Menendez be compelled to resign.

[pbrower2a]

AZ, IA, MO, NC -- PPP

New Public Policy Polling surveys in Arizona, Iowa, Missouri, and North Carolina find that voter anger over their Republican Senators’ unwillingness to consider a replacement for Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court could help make those seats competitive for Democrats this fall.

Key findings from the surveys include:

-All these Senators start out with pretty mediocre approval ratings. John McCain’s approval is a 26/63 spread, Roy Blunt’s is 25/48, and Richard Burr’s is 28/44. Only Chuck Grassley within this group is on positive ground and his 47/44 spread is down considerably from what we usually find for him as he loses crossover support from Democrats because of his intransigence on the Supreme Court issue. Further making life difficult for this quartet is the incredibly damaged brand of Senate Republicans. Mitch McConnell is vastly unpopular in these four states, coming in at 11/63 in Iowa, 16/68 in Arizona, 16/69 in Missouri, and 19/65 in North Carolina. McConnell will be an albatross for all Senate Republicans seeking reelection this fall.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

Note: This assessment can change rapidly should the Republicans not play obstructionist games with the nomination of a Justice of the Supreme Court. Anyone with an approval rating below 40% is in extreme danger of defeat, no matter what State he represents. Many pols with such low approval ratings retire  or get defeated in a primary.

Of course, should Republicans act responsibly with an Obama appointment this assessment reverses.

Modification (update): Vermont Public Radio had a poll of Vermont, and it showed Senator Leahy with approval in the 60s. I doubt that anyone has cause to dispute that.


My take (and rationale):

Approval polls only.


Gray -- no incumbent at risk.
White -- retiring incumbent or (should it happen) an incumbent defeated in a primary, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.
Yellow -- incumbent under indictment or with a terminal diagnosis short of the completion of his term, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.

Light green -- Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.
Light orange --  Democratic incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.

Blue  -- Republican running for re-election with current polls available.
Red -- Democrat running for re-election with current polls available.

Intensity percentage shows the first digit of the approval of the incumbent Senator --

"2" for approval between 20% and 30%, "3" for approval between 30% and 39%... "7" for approval between 70% and 79%.

Numbers are recent approval ratings for incumbent Senators if their approvals are below 55%. I'm not showing any number for any incumbent whose approval is 55% or higher because even this early that looks very safe.

An asterisk (*) is for an appointed incumbent (there are none now) because appointed pols have never shown their electability.

Approval only (although I might accept A/B/C/D/F) -- not favorability. I do not use any Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor ratings because "fair" is ambiguous. A fair performance by a 7-year-old violinist might impress you. A 'fair' performance by an adult violinist indicates something for which you would not want to buy a ticket.

NO PARTISAN POLLS.

What I see so far with incumbents:

App      Rep  Dem

<40       8     0
40-44    2     0
45-49   1      2
50-54    3      0
55-59    0      0
>60       0     3
retire    3      3  
indict     0      1
oth off  1      0
no poll  6      1


Now -- my projection for the 2016 Senate election:

Sure R:

Alabama
Idaho
North Dakota
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah

Likely R:
Alaska
Kansas


Edge R:
Arkansas
Indiana
Iowa (from Sure R)
Kentucky
Louisiana

Tossups
Arizona (from Edge R)
Georgia (from Edge R)
Nevada


All but one of the current tossups are current R seats.

Edge D:
Colorado
Florida*
Missouri* (from toss-up)
New Hampshire*
North Carolina* (from toss-up)
Ohio*
Pennsylvania*


Likely D:
Oregon
Washington


Solid D:
California
Connecticut
Hawaii
Illinois*
Maryland
Vermont
Wisconsin*


*flip (so far all R to D)

New Jersey looks like a fairly sure hold should current, but indicted, Senator Bob Menendez be compelled to resign.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Edge D
NV, CO, IL, NH & WI

States that can flip
Iowa, FL, Pa,& OH

Edge GOP
NC, MO & AZ