**DMR final poll livestream and pre-game megathread** TRUMP, CLINTON DOMINATE

[Eraserhead]

I wonder if they're predicting big turnout from the Democrats too...

[Mike Thick]

This is from Jeff Roe's Twitter:

For the record, we may be leading at 250K-300K I would have no idea because we would never test at that turnout range


What do you guys think

It sounds a little sketchy... I haven't heard of turnout ever being that high. However, I don't know nuthin

Is this poll generally very accurate of how Iowa will vote? I'm not too familiar with it all and curious since everyone is going nuts over it.

2012 they predicted the last minute surge of Santorum IIRC, but then again 2012 proved it's hard to poll Iowa because of that, especially when 95%+ of undecideds broke for Santorum LAST minute

Yeah, but it's been a very good bellwether of how things go. Santorum was an exception to the rule.

[Dorko Julio]

Is this poll generally very accurate of how Iowa will vote? I'm not too familiar with it all and curious since everyone is going nuts over it.

I was wondering the same, but apparently it is pretty reliable. On Fox New's Election Headquarters they were all gushing over it and saying how excited they were.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Is this poll generally very accurate of how Iowa will vote? I'm not too familiar with it all and curious since everyone is going nuts over it.

It's generally seen as the gold standard, especially since it correctly predicted Obama and Ernst winning when nobody else did.

[IceSpear]

Is this poll generally very accurate of how Iowa will vote? I'm not too familiar with it all and curious since everyone is going nuts over it.

Selzer is the most accurate pollster in the country.

[Ebsy]

Selzer is never the most accurate but always very accurate, which makes her unique among pollsters.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Selzer is never the most accurate but always very accurate, which makes her unique among pollsters.

Which is why Atlasians are UBER excited about it!

[Wells]

Selzer is never the most accurate but always very accurate, which makes her unique among pollsters.

Which is why Atlasians are UBER excited about it!

I'm actually more excited for the caucuses themselves, but I guess those aren't happening in less than two hours.

[Virginiá]

Thanks guys!

I hope Mr. Leip has prepared his servers for the next week. This thread's climax in 2 hours may just put them over the edge.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Thanks guys!

I hope Mr. Leip has prepared his servers for the next week. This thread's climax in 2 hours may just put them over the edge.

You have no idea...literally

[Mike Thick]

Selzer is never the most accurate but always very accurate, which makes her unique among pollsters.

Which is why Atlasians are UBER excited about it!

I'm actually more excited for the caucuses themselves, but I guess those aren't happening in less than two hours.

If this is what Atlasians are like before a poll, IMAGINE WHAT THE CAUCUSES WILL BE LIKE!!!!1!!

[Mike Thick]

Thanks guys!

I hope Mr. Leip has prepared his servers for the next week. This thread's climax in 2 hours may just put them over the edge.

You have no idea...literally

Do they actually... crash?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Selzer is never the most accurate but always very accurate, which makes her unique among pollsters.

Which is why Atlasians are UBER excited about it!

I'm actually more excited for the caucuses themselves, but I guess those aren't happening in less than two hours.

If this is what Atlasians are like before a poll, IMAGINE WHAT THE CAUCUSES WILL BE LIKE!!!!1!!

This site will not be loading for anyone all night....predicting that again

[Dorko Julio]

Thanks guys!

I hope Mr. Leip has prepared his servers for the next week. This thread's climax in 2 hours may just put them over the edge.

You have no idea...literally

Do they actually... crash?

yeah

[Penelope]

Is this poll generally very accurate of how Iowa will vote? I'm not too familiar with it all and curious since everyone is going nuts over it.

Final 2012-R Selzer Poll: (final results)
24% (25%) Romney
22% (21%) Paul
15% (25%) Santorum
12% (13%) Gingrich

Final 2008-R Selzer Poll: (final results)
32% (34%) Huckabee
26% (25%) Romney
13% (13%) McCain
  9% (10%) Paul

Final 2008-D Selzer Poll: (final results)
32% (35%) Obama
25% (30%) Clinton
24% (31%) Edwards
  6%   (2%) Richardson

So unless there is a last minute surge out of nowhere by a candidate from the back of the pack, the results of this poll should be a very good indicator of what will happen on Monday night.

[The Other Castro]

Rumor Roundup

Atlas user boschembechle's twin brother's friend that supposedly works at DMR: "cruz up seven with Rubio and Trump Tied. And will show Clinton up 2."

Twitter reports, including Cruz campaign manager tweets: Suggest Cruz doesn't like this poll, and is most likely in 2nd place. Rubio people seem to be pushing a narrative of trends>who's leading, and Rubio is probably in 3rd.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If you think debate night crashes, slowdowns are bad...wait until election night when hundreds of people are trying to comment at once.

[Dorko Julio]

Is this poll generally very accurate of how Iowa will vote? I'm not too familiar with it all and curious since everyone is going nuts over it.

Final 2012-R Selzer Poll: (final results)
24% (25%) Romney
22% (21%) Paul
15% (25%) Santorum
12% (13%) Gingrich

Final 2008-R Selzer Poll: (final results)
32% (34%) Huckabee
26% (25%) Romney
13% (13%) McCain
  9% (10%) Paul

Final 2008-R Selzer Poll: (final results)
32% (35%) Obama
25% (30%) Clinton
24% (31%) Edwards
  6%   (2%) Richardson

So unless there is a last minute surge out of nowhere by a candidate from the back of the pack, the results of this poll should be a very good indicator of what will happen on Monday night.

Damn.

That's pretty accurate!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

So if Trump leads this poll expect Trump to win

Cruz leads expect him to win, etc, ad nauseum

[Mike Thick]

If you think debate night crashes, slowdowns are bad...wait until election night when hundreds of people are trying to comment at once.

Ugh. I hope they all go to AAD or something so Old Atlas will work better...

[Wells]

Rumor Roundup

Atlas user boschembechle's twin brother's friend that supposedly works at DMR: "cruz up seven with Rubio and Trump Tied. And will show Clinton up 2."

Twitter reports, including Cruz campaign manager tweets: Suggest Cruz doesn't like this poll, and is most likely in 2nd place. Rubio people seem to be pushing a narrative of trends>who's leading, and Rubio is probably in 3rd.

Clinton up two? Still hoping they'll show a Sanders lead, though it's unlikely.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I will be more focusing on who is 3rd and 4th though

[Wells]

I will be more focusing on who is 3rd and 4th though

Cruz and Trump.
(jk)

[RI]

Also, this poll will likely be less indicative of the final Dem results due to the way their caucus is performed.

[Dorko Julio]

I will be more focusing on who is 3rd and 4th though

Cruz and Trump.
(jk)

If by Cruz and Trump you mean Paul and Rubio, I AGREE!!