Selzer/DMR/Bloomberg FINAL IOWA POLL: Trump +5, Clinton +3

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

There's more info here:

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/r1OvZ1NeDjnY

but not the full crosstabs.  For example, on the livestream, they were talking about how Cruz and Trump were close to even in the 4th congressional district.  Do we have crosstabs anywhere for all of the congressional districts?

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders is hurt by the fact that the caucus system penalizes his demographics - who are clustered on college campuses and in urban areas in general - while Clinton benefits from a larger than proportionate share of delegates being allocated to rural counties and caucus sites.

Is it true that, college towns aside, Sanders's support is more concentrated in urban areas than Clinton's support is?  I haven't seen evidence that it is.  See the discussion in this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=227529.0

[Mr. Morden]

fav/unfav % among their own party:

Sanders 82/12% for +70%
Clinton 81/17% for +64%
O’Malley 46/13% for +33%

Carson 72/22% for +50%
Rubio 70/21% for +49%
Cruz 65/28% for +37%
Trump 50/47% for +3%
Kasich 28/27% for +1%
Paul 40/41% for -1%
Christie 40/44% for -4%
Bush 41/53% for -12%

Would you be enthusiastic in your support for this candidate if they became the nominee? (yes/no %)

Clinton 73/26% for +47%
Sanders 69/30% for +39%

Carson 58/40% for +18%
Rubio 58/40% for +18%
Cruz 56/43% for +13%
Trump 44/56% for -12%
Paul 31/63% for -32%
Kasich 23/56% for -33%
Christie 31/65% for -34%
Bush 30/69% for -39%

[Mr. Morden]

I wonder if it's ever happened before that the Iowa caucuses are won by a candidate for whom 47% of their own party have an unfavorable opinion of them? 

[Mr. Morden]

I'll ask again, since no one answered the first time: Have they released the full crosstabs for this poll?  Because all I can find is this:

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/r1OvZ1NeDjnY

which includes results on a number of questions, but doesn't tell you how each demographic group is breaking.

[Mr. Morden]

Nate Cohn has a good story on Selzer's methodology:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/upshot/why-this-is-the-iowa-poll-that-everyones-waiting-for.html?_r=0

This table is interesting:

[Mr. Morden]

Harry Enten looks at Selzer’s history in Iowa going back to 1988, finding that she’s only incorrectly called the winner once (Santorum beating Romney in 2012), and that the average error per candidate in the poll’s predictions across all years is just 3.3%.  However, with so many candidates running each year, you can be really close on most of them, but way off on one or two, and still manage a 3.3% average:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-final-des-moines-register-iowa-poll-is-out-how-accurate-will-it-be/

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[Mr. Morden]

Scanning through the thread, I don't think this has been mentioned yet, but they also polled a hypothetical 2-man race on the GOP side.  If it was just Cruz and Trump running, then you get:

Cruz 53%
Trump 35%

[Mr. Morden]

First and second choices, and candidate favorability, over time: