Selzer/DMR/Bloomberg FINAL IOWA POLL: Trump +5, Clinton +3 (user search)
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  Selzer/DMR/Bloomberg FINAL IOWA POLL: Trump +5, Clinton +3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Selzer/DMR/Bloomberg FINAL IOWA POLL: Trump +5, Clinton +3  (Read 7078 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: January 30, 2016, 07:54:18 PM »

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-01-30/bloomberg-politics-des-moines-register-iowa-poll-democrats

Only one in three likely Democratic voters in the survey are first-time caucus-goers, who break decidedly toward Sanders. That compares with 60 percent in the final pre-caucus survey of 2008

In addition, the survey finds Clinton’s support is deeper and sturdier than Sanders’ across many areas

“Most of the ways you look at it, she’s stronger than the three-point race would suggest,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer.

Sanders does not have as broad a reach as Obama did.
In the final pre-caucus survey of 2008, Obama led in many categories, with both definite and probable caucus-goers and decided as well as persuadable voters.
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HillOfANight
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Posts: 1,459
« Reply #1 on: January 30, 2016, 08:09:52 PM »

The thing is, Selzer picked up the upcoming huge wave for Obama. She doesn't see it for Sanders. And with 60% being so huge, absent large population growth, 60% again might not even be possible.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html
She only led 2 out of the last 5 polls in 2008.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html
She's leading 5 out of the last 7, including in the DMR that predicted her demise last time.
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