Selzer/DMR/Bloomberg FINAL IOWA POLL: Trump +5, Clinton +3

[RBH]

does anybody really have any sort of gauge on likely results out of Des Moines?

It seems like the only parts of Iowa with a lot of African-American voters are in Des Moines, Waterloo and some in Davenport. So, that'll diverge from the numbers for Obama in 2008.

As for the R side... Trump's looking like a solid pick, unless the non-Trump voters can stomach voting for Cruz.

If Rubio was already in 2nd, he'd have a chance.. but having Cruz 2nd to Trump is one hell of a buffer for Trump.

[RBH]

there's also not an infinite number of first time voters. It'd be a nice split to see how many 2016 voters are first-timers from 2008.

I'd guess virtually everybody 25 or younger (born in 1991 or after) is going to be first time for the Dems, unless somebody caucused for the uncontested Obama candidacy as their first time in 2012. That universe seems to be kinda lower than you'd think.

But then again, an age breakdown of the 60% first timers in 2008 seems helpful here and idk if that got split by the surveys.

[RBH]

there's also not an infinite number of first time voters. It'd be a nice split to see how many 2016 voters are first-timers from 2008.

I'd guess virtually everybody 25 or younger (born in 1991 or after) is going to be first time for the Dems, unless somebody caucused for the uncontested Obama candidacy as their first time in 2012. That universe seems to be kinda lower than you'd think.

But then again, an age breakdown of the 60% first timers in 2008 seems helpful here and idk if that got split by the surveys.

Eh, there might be some Paul 2012 first timers switching to Sanders.  But yeah, you make a good point that many of the 2008 first timers are going to be voting again.

yeah, I wasn't counting 2012 Republican caucusers. I'd think that number is gonna be pretty low. Those voters are probably gonna have to get used to the differences between D and R caucuses.

comparing the 2 Selzer polls, it moved from 42/40 Clinton to 45/42 Clinton. Kinda suggesting that there might be a ceiling on the PV support for Sanders. Considering the IA Dem Caucuses aren't a PV contest, there's a potential that Bernie gets 40%+ in a bunch of places that he loses. Topping out in the mid-50s or such in Johnson Co (where the non-IC vote is gonna cancel out parts of the IC vote)