Post-Selzer- Which Republican wins the Iowa caucus?
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  Post-Selzer- Which Republican wins the Iowa caucus?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Pick!
#1
Donald Trump		  
#2
Ted Cruz		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 103

Author Topic: Post-Selzer- Which Republican wins the Iowa caucus?  (Read 3533 times)
Talleyrand
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« on: January 30, 2016, 07:05:01 PM »
Go!
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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« Reply #1 on: January 30, 2016, 07:06:24 PM »
Cruz has a better ground game, so he still has a chance.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: January 30, 2016, 07:09:06 PM »
Rubio, of course! (Tongue)

At this point, I have to say Trump, but it may be closer to expected.
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Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #3 on: January 30, 2016, 07:09:52 PM »
Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on January 30, 2016, 07:06:24 PM
Cruz has a better ground game, so he still has a chance.

I think Selzer takes this into account, right?  Isn't that the point?
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
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« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2016, 07:11:35 PM »
« Edited: January 30, 2016, 07:18:25 PM by Ted Bessell, Bass God of the West »
Okay, I'll be bold and say Cruz. If I'm right, hallelujah. If I'm wrong, I'm new enough to survive a little egg on my face.

EDIT: In my heart, though, I'm thinking it's Trump.
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RFayette
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« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2016, 07:12:12 PM »
My mind says Trump, but I'm still holding out hope for Cruz....please, please, please.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #6 on: January 30, 2016, 07:16:05 PM »
Cruz isn't going to surge after that debate, and Trump's 5 point lead is pretty strong for a Selzer poll.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: January 30, 2016, 07:21:28 PM »
I'm going to write a very bad op-ed about you in Politico for not including Rubio.
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trickmind
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« Reply #8 on: January 30, 2016, 07:23:16 PM »
Quote from: MW Representative RFayette on January 30, 2016, 07:12:12 PM
My mind says Trump, but I'm still holding out hope for Cruz....please, please, please.

Cruz probably won't win Iowa, but I don't think he's dead though as long as he doesn't dip below 2nd. Finishing under Rubio would probably be a death blow.
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #9 on: January 30, 2016, 07:34:01 PM »
I'm leaning Cruz by Santorum margins because of ground game and a snowstorm in southern Iowa that will depress turnout.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #10 on: January 30, 2016, 07:47:13 PM »
Too close to call. If DMR isn't right on the money (which they might be) I think we'll see Trump underperforming and Rubio gaining a lot, leading to a very close 3-way race, with Trump, Rubio, and Cruz all coming in right around 31%. Which one wins in a basically a die-roll.

That's if the storm doesn't hit early. If it does, I suspect Cruz wins by a few percent.
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pikachu
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« Reply #11 on: January 30, 2016, 07:57:18 PM »
Most likely Trump, but I'm hoping Cruz can pull it off so we can get some nice maps this cycle Tongue
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #12 on: January 30, 2016, 08:04:42 PM »
Trump, but with <30%. It will be close.
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Orthogonian Society Treasurer
CommanderClash
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« Reply #13 on: January 30, 2016, 08:18:55 PM »
Trump by double digits.
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Asian Nazi
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« Reply #14 on: January 30, 2016, 08:22:20 PM »
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Ronnie
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« Reply #15 on: January 30, 2016, 08:31:06 PM »
« Edited: January 30, 2016, 08:34:45 PM by Ronnie »
I give in.  I've been skeptical of Trump's prospects for some time, but the Selzer poll convinced me to put my reservations aside until caucus night.

The fact that he's leading in his weakest state makes me think he will actually be unstoppable.  We'll see, though.
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pho
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« Reply #16 on: January 30, 2016, 08:37:26 PM »
Quote from: Paleocon on January 30, 2016, 07:34:01 PM
I'm leaning Cruz by Santorum margins because of ground game and a snowstorm in southern Iowa that will depress turnout.

If there's a snowstorm, it will depress turnout among less enthusiastic voters. Those are not Trump supporters.
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wolfsblood07
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« Reply #17 on: January 30, 2016, 08:47:11 PM »
« Edited: January 30, 2016, 08:53:38 PM by wolfsblood07 »
Order of finish:
1. Ted Cruz
2. Marco Rubio
3. Jeb Bush
4. Rick Santorum
5. Ben Carson
6. Rand Paul
7. Mike Huckabee
8. John Kasich
9. Carly Fiorina
10. Jim Gilmore
11. Donald Trump
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
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« Reply #18 on: January 30, 2016, 08:48:09 PM »
Quote from: wolfsblood07 on January 30, 2016, 08:47:11 PM
Order of finish:
1. Ted Cruz
2. Marco Rubio
3. Jeb Bush
4. Rick Santorum
5. Ben Carson
6. Mike Huckabee
7. John Kasich
8. Carly Fiorina
9. Jim Gilmore
10. Donald Trump



Where's Randy? Huh
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #19 on: January 30, 2016, 08:53:44 PM »
My heart and mind both say Trump but I am trying to be pessimistic so I won't be surprised if Trump wins, but I will also be happy if Ted wins.
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wolfsblood07
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« Reply #20 on: January 30, 2016, 08:54:27 PM »
Quote from: Ted Bessell, Bass God of the West on January 30, 2016, 08:48:09 PM
Quote from: wolfsblood07 on January 30, 2016, 08:47:11 PM
Order of finish:
1. Ted Cruz
2. Marco Rubio
3. Jeb Bush
4. Rick Santorum
5. Ben Carson
6. Mike Huckabee
7. John Kasich
8. Carly Fiorina
9. Jim Gilmore
10. Donald Trump



Where's Randy? Huh
Thank you, fixed it.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
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« Reply #21 on: January 30, 2016, 08:57:15 PM »
Quote from: wolfsblood07 on January 30, 2016, 08:54:27 PM
Quote from: Ted Bessell, Bass God of the West on January 30, 2016, 08:48:09 PM
Quote from: wolfsblood07 on January 30, 2016, 08:47:11 PM
Order of finish:
1. Ted Cruz
2. Marco Rubio
3. Jeb Bush
4. Rick Santorum
5. Ben Carson
6. Mike Huckabee
7. John Kasich
8. Carly Fiorina
9. Jim Gilmore
10. Donald Trump



Where's Randy? Huh
Thank you, fixed it.

Thanks, and I wish this were true Tongue
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: January 30, 2016, 08:58:16 PM »
LOL I just noticed that even though Trump is probably going to win, Cruz leads him 53-35 in a head to head. Tough luck for Rafael.
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RFayette
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« Reply #23 on: January 30, 2016, 10:12:32 PM »
Quote from: Classic Conservative on January 30, 2016, 08:53:44 PM
My heart and mind both say Trump but I am trying to be pessimistic so I won't be surprised if Trump wins, but I will also be happy if Ted wins.

This.  I would be so happy if Cruz ekes out a victory and rides momentum to a landslide establishment-Evangelical-tea party coalition to defeat the Trump train and, in addition, silence all the Trump trolls/Democrats on AAD. Smiley

It's unlikely, but I'm still holding out hope.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #24 on: January 30, 2016, 10:45:24 PM »
Trump by 2 or 3.
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