Post Selzer- Which Democrat wins the Iowa Caucus?

[exopolitician]

Too close to call.

This.

[YPestis25]

I'm going to say Clinton, but the high number of undecideds makes an upset by Sanders possible.

[Oak Hills]

Clinton 55%
Sanders 45%

O'Malley fails to reach 15% in a single precinct.

[Lief 🗽]

Clinton 55
Sanders 43
O'Malley 2

[Antonio the Sixth]

Probably Hillary, but anything is possible.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Entrance Poll:

Clinton 47
Sanders 46
O'Malley 7

Actual Result:

Sanders 49
Clinton 48
O'Malley 3

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Clinton, which has been my prediction from the get-go. Numbers-wise... I'd say she wins by 3-5%.

[Hydera]

My terrible guess.


Clinton: 51%

Sanders: 46%

O'Malley: 3%

Another scenario is that O'Malley being the protest vote would probably get 1% in reality.

Clinton: 51%

Sanders: 48%

O'Malley: 1%

Bernie upset scenario

Bernie 51%

Clinton: 48%

O'Malley: 1%

Clinton Surge scenario

Clinton:56%

Sanders:43%

O'Malley: 1%

[pho]

Clinton by 6

[This account no longer in use.]

All I'm going to say is that -StatesPoll.com- predicted a Sanders win in Iowa.

[Eraserhead]

Clinton. Just barely.

[Oakvale]

All I'm going to say is that -StatesPoll.com- predicted a Sanders win in Iowa.

oh well then,

[trickmind]

I don't buy it. I think his central problem is that he (and his supporters X50) simply have no idea how to appeal/campaign to blacks and I don't think they ever will.

They have been improving, especially with younger African Americans, and have been winning some solid endorsements from the community.  But at the end of the day it's not going to be enough.

I think his best bet would be to focus on young AA males, as they're the AA group most distant from the 'traditional' Dem party.

One thing he needs to try and do is reign in his Berniefans on twitter. He looks terrible every time 100 of them or so savage Ta Nehisi Coates or someone on twitter just for being critical of Bernie.

But it's OK when the head of her SuperPAC she's coodianting with, David Brock, does the same absurd right-wing attacks he's always done?

Never said it was. Just that it looks bad to black voters when 100s of Bernie Sanders' supporters attack influential black journalists.

[The Other Castro]

Entrance Poll:

Clinton 47
Sanders 46
O'Malley 7

Actual Result:

Sanders 49
Clinton 48
O'Malley 3

I just realized the entrance poll might give us a good idea of how O'Malley voters split between Clinton and Sanders.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Entrance Poll:

Clinton 47
Sanders 46
O'Malley 7

Actual Result:

Sanders 49
Clinton 48
O'Malley 3

I just realized the entrance poll might give us a good idea of how O'Malley voters split between Clinton and Sanders.

There's a MOE and we don't get a raw vote count, so not really.

[Ogre Mage]

Clinton.