If Trump wins Iowa...

[Mike Thick]

...are there realistic paths to the Republican nomination for other candidates? If so, what are they? For who?

Discuss, perhaps even with maps.

[IceSpear]

Cruz: Surge in SC as backlash against a "Trump coronation" (a la Gingrich 2012 against the Romney coronation), ride the wave of momentum to victories in the SEC states

Rubio: Finish strongly in IA, and ride the media bias to a win in NH and other states

That's really the only ones I can think of. Jeb/Christie/Kasich have a shot at NH, but I don't think any of them have the ability to go the distance, so it would be wasted momentum.

[ElectionsGuy]

Someone would really need to stop Trump and pull a stunner in South Carolina. Outside of that, not happening. This is almost make or break for Cruz.

[Ebsy]

Reported for offensive title.

Should read "When Trump wins Iowa..."

[Mike Thick]

Reported for offensive title.

Should read "When Trump wins Iowa..."

Title changed to "When TRUMP, billionaire, philanthropist, and true patriot; blows away Ted Cruz by twenty points in Iowa..."

JK, but he does seem to have a better shot than Cruz right now.

[Cory]

Cruz: Surge in SC as backlash against a "Trump coronation" (a la Gingrich 2012 against the Romney coronation), ride the wave of momentum to victories in the SEC states

That's a totally inaccurate comparison.

[Trapsy]

Cruz: Surge in SC as backlash against a "Trump coronation" (a la Gingrich 2012 against the Romney coronation), ride the wave of momentum to victories in the SEC states

That's a totally inaccurate comparison.

[IceSpear]

Cruz: Surge in SC as backlash against a "Trump coronation" (a la Gingrich 2012 against the Romney coronation), ride the wave of momentum to victories in the SEC states

That's a totally inaccurate comparison.

Well, it's not a perfect comparison obviously. But Gingrich's landslide win I thought had as much to do with a conservative backlash at Romney being crowned inevitable nominee after his wins in IA/NH (or "win" in the case of IA) as it had to do with Gingrich's stellar debate performance. What's your take on it?

[Broken System]

The one and only realistic path for other candidates was if they all gathered around one before Super Tuesday. This is not likely, as we will most likely have at least one establishment candidate, plus Cruz sticking around for Texas. So, in the end, a win in Iowa secures Trump's nomination.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

...are there realistic paths to the Republican nomination for other candidates? If so, what are they? For who?

For: Anyone but Trump

Path to Victory: All R candidates but one drop out before Trump picks up enough delegates to wrap up the nomination with his 40% ceiling (and I'm being generous with that ceiling).

Doesn't matter who that last one is, really. All that matters is that someONE can gather all the Not Trump votes in the later, winner-take-all primaries and get enough total votes to unquestionably win the nomination.

[Maxwell]

Polls have shown Trump with above 40% of the vote and that's with a crowded field, so pretending like that's his absolute ceiling is pretty ignorant of the facts. I'm sure Trump would only get like 42-45% against a category called "Generic Republican Challenger to Trump". But here's the problem: that doesn't exist. Trump will get someone who has weaknesses he can expose. Against Cruz he has the whole birther issue and Cruz's general odious and unlikable air. Rubio has proven that he is not willing to work hard enough to get the nomination and has an incredibly sketchy background. The rest are joke tier candidates.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Of course other candidates would still have a path to the nomination if Trump wins Iowa.  The Establishment could get serious and finally coalesce around one candidate.  Cruz could recover and focus on the movement conservatives who can drive this process.  A Trump victory in Iowa would give both movement conservatives and the GOP Establishment a sense of urgency that they seem to lack right now.

And I still think that Cruz is the guy the Establishment will turn to.  No matter how unlikeable he has turned out to be, he's a sitting GOP Senator; that makes him part of the Establishment in a real sense.  Cruz could be co-opted.  Trump, on the other hand, represents a hostile takeover of the GOP, does he not?  I think Cruz's rough patch in Iowa is being overblown somewhat.  The guys who are REALLY having the rough spots are the Establishment Faves (Rubio, Jeb, Christie, Kasich), none of whom can break out of the pack, and none of whom wish to quit.

[Blair]

And I still think that Cruz is the guy the Establishment will turn to.  No matter how unlikeable he has turned out to be, he's a sitting GOP Senator; that makes him part of the Establishment in a real sense.  Cruz could be co-opted.  Trump, on the other hand, represents a hostile takeover of the GOP, does he not?  I think Cruz's rough patch in Iowa is being overblown somewhat.  The guys who are REALLY having the rough spots are the Establishment Faves (Rubio, Jeb, Christie, Kasich), none of whom can break out of the pack, and none of whom wish to quit.

This is what logically should have happened but the past week has shown the establishment actually prefer Trump. You had people like Branstead, King, Burr and others saying that Cruz shouldn't be allowed to win Iowa

[trickmind]

Cruz needs 2nd in Iowa, preferably a strong one to be able to stay in the hunt. Luckily for him that much awaited 'Marcomentem' doesn't look to be happening so he'll come out of Iowa wounded but not dead. I think he would need a strong performance in NH, probably taking 2nd while the establishment eats themselves alive to have a chance to mount a comeback in SC, which isn't out of the cards imo but growing more unlikely.

On the establishment side...I think if Trump wins Iowa and NH it's going to be tough to get back into it. If it is true that the establishment came out so hard against Cruz in IA to get a more favorable candidate maneuvered it was a bad error imo. Cruz would have been an easier person to beat in a 1-on-1 than Trump. Their best bet to me was Cruz beating Trump in IA, and an establishment candidate either winning or putting a strong performance in NH. Now that appears to be out of the cards.

I've always thought that Rubio will ultimately not be the right man to take back the party from Trump and Cruz if it is possible. He reminds all GOP voters of Barack Obama, a boyish young senator when they're looking for a hard man like Richard Nixon in these "bad times". Christie is their only shot from my perspective, and it's a pretty slim shot at that.

[Stan]

THis primaries maybe will by the "Anyone but..." primaries. Anyone but Clinton vs Anyone but Trump. And maybe Bloomberg is laughing about it.

[Fuzzy Bear]

And I still think that Cruz is the guy the Establishment will turn to.  No matter how unlikeable he has turned out to be, he's a sitting GOP Senator; that makes him part of the Establishment in a real sense.  Cruz could be co-opted.  Trump, on the other hand, represents a hostile takeover of the GOP, does he not?  I think Cruz's rough patch in Iowa is being overblown somewhat.  The guys who are REALLY having the rough spots are the Establishment Faves (Rubio, Jeb, Christie, Kasich), none of whom can break out of the pack, and none of whom wish to quit.

This is what logically should have happened but the past week has shown the establishment actually prefer Trump. You had people like Branstead, King, Burr and others saying that Cruz shouldn't be allowed to win Iowa

Branstad and Burr aren't Trumpkins; they just hate Cruz.  King can't back Cruz, given the Tancredo-esque quality of his career.

Branstad and Burr think they have choices besides Trump.  They think that once Cruz tanks, their kind of candidate will fill the void, and Trump will be taken down in a one-on-one race.  They think they have the luxury of using Trump to stop Cruz.  This was the strategy of 1976 liberals using Jimmy Carter to stop George Wallace in the South; the end result is that Carter became bigger than all of that and stuck the Democratic Party with a candidate that its base didn't really want.