Will Trump actually have a harder time as the field narrows?

[ElectionsGuy]

This is something interesting that I think needs to be discussed. We've seen polls of head to heads involving Trump, Rubio, and Cruz. Cruz actually leads Trump head to head in the most recent one, but Trump leads Rubio (but only by 7). Trump is not only polarizing outside the party, but within the party. This means people who like him really like him, but people who dislike him really dislike him. Trump is getting away with 20 point leads nationally because of the massive split field, but we know that most of the non-Trump supporters will go for whoever the main non-Trump person(s) are. If this is the case, it will be the opposite of most primaries, where the eventual nominee has an easier ride as time goes on. Don't get me wrong though, Trump definitely has the ability to sweep through.

If it winnows down to 4 or 5 by March, will he have a tougher time?

[Penelope]

Generally, yes. But it really depends on the candidate/s. Can you imagine if the field narrows (somehow) to Trump and Bush?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Absolutely not. The Cruz polls are from before everyone finding out he was Canadian. Huckabee and Santorum voters seem likely to leave for Trump and a poor Cruz showing may lead his voters to leave too. Serious doubt about Christie and Bush and Kasich people leaving for Rubio. They would have done so already.

[Mike Thick]

4 or 5 by March? This is gonna take forever

Anyway, I imagine that it'll get increasingly hard as the field narrows. I'm curious as to whether the dynamics of Trump swaying voters would be different in a head-to-head than they are in a split field, due to the establishmentarians not constantly carpet-bombing each other with attacks.

[wolfsblood07]

Yes, absolutely.  The Rubio campaign is hoping that Trump wins Iowa so that Cruz flames out, and they can have a 2 man race against Trump.
I think as soon as the establishment coalesces its support around one of the non-Trump candidates, Trump is finished.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Common sense would say yes, but Trump's campaign has defied political expectations so far. It's possible, albeit frightening, that the GOP would just coalesce around him if it looks like he's going to be the nominee.

[IceSpear]

Yes, but the problem is that by the time the field narrows enough, he could very well have enough momentum from earlier wins to make it irrelevant.

[RI]

If Trump sweeps the early states, he'll be at 55-60% support nationally by the time it's a one-on-one race.

[wolfsblood07]

Yes, but the problem is that by the time the field narrows enough, he could very well have enough momentum from earlier wins to make it irrelevant.

There are likely serious discussions taking place this weekend and in the next week or so, in order to make candidates "see the light".  Don't be surprised if several big name GOP candidates suddenly drop out of the race and rally behind Rubio or Kasich or Bush in.the first half of Feb.

[Maxwell]

Even if it's a two man field Trump will have the advantage of being far more adept at this than anyone else. And it won't be a two man field - all of these people are incredibly vain. They will stay in as long as its feasible.

[Lyin' Steve]

No.  Trump's "ceiling" is a fiction.  Trump has 59% favorability among Republicans according to Gallup (I know it's Gallup but it matches state-level findings by other pollsters) so even if he doesn't get shinier in the glow of victory, that's still 60% of people who like him and could support him.  The Trump ceiling has consistently increased since the start of the campaign, and now he's been beating 40% in a good number of national polls and 50% in some state polls.  If it's a two-man race, especially if Trump has already been winning contests and securing boatloads of delegates, I don't see why Trump can't get a majority.  For instance, Rubio is at 10% right now and Trump is at 35%.  If the other 55% of the vote is for candidates who all drop out, Trump only needs 27% of them to support him to get majority support.

Rubio's favorability among Republicans is 55-20 with 25 not sure, and Trump's is 59-35 with 6 not sure.  Let's say all the not sures go positive for Rubio and negative for Trump to make it 80/20 vs 59/41.  Then let's say that all the current supporters view their candidate favorably, so Trump has 24/41 = 37% among the rest and Rubio 70/20 = 78%.  Even here, Rubio's only twice as favorably-viewed as Trump, he needs to be three times better to close the gap.  It's even harder to see if you take into consideration that a lot of those voters support Cruz.  If Trump got 60% of Cruz+Carson's 25% when they dropped out, he'd be at 50.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Yes, absolutely.  The Rubio campaign is hoping that Trump wins Iowa so that Cruz flames out, and they can have a 2 man race against Trump.
I think as soon as the establishment coalesces its support around one of the non-Trump candidates, Trump is finished.

I think you're right, and I've said the same myself elsewhere. But... Trump. He doesn't seem to follow the rules. This whole primary season hasn't followed the rules.

I'm going to be very interested to see what happens when people actually start voting. And Iowa barely counts on that score, it's politics are so very odd and historically irrelevant for the R nomination.

[Fuzzy Bear]

It won't be a slam dunk, but it will get easier.  Trump has made real headway with Republicans in that he's now viewed as (A) the legitimate frontrunner, and (B) one of the group.  Republicans once viewed Trump in kind of the same way Democrats once viewed George Wallace; an outsider whose partisanship was limited to his own campaign, and a guy who could not be counted on to endorse whomever defeated him, while maintaining a large base within the party.  This view is passing; Trump is now seen as a guy who is a Republican who will endorse the ticket if he loses, absent the most heavy-handed maneuvers of power politics used to deny him the nomination. 

Another important piece of headway Trump has made is establishing himself as a "winner".  When Trump became the frontrunner, there was the mantra of how he wasn't in it to win it, wasn't going to sustain his position, and that a vote for Trump would be a wasted vote.  Only late-stage crack smokers think this now.  Indeed, voting for Trump enables voters to experience being part of a movement, and that is a deciding factor for some voters, who are generally undecided but have an irrational fear of voting for a loser.  Paul Simon (the singer, not the Senator) once explained why he was a NY Yankee fan.  "There's so much losing in life." observed Simon.  "Why lose with your team?"  People DO apply this sentiment to politics and voting, and they are more likely to do that with a guy like Trump, who makes WINNING an overall campaign theme.

The only way it will get tougher for Trump is if and when the Establishment pulls out all the stops to block him.  Twisting the arms of non-elected candidates.  Pressuring other candidates to drop out and coalesce.  The problem with this strategy is that if the Trump ends up with most of the votes in the primaries, it will be difficult for such a move to not bring an incredible backlash that could only hurt the Republican nominee.  The drama would play out on the floor of the Republican National Convention; Trump would ensure it.  In such an event, there might also be all sorts of fights over the platform, and over credentials.  Most of the ugliness of the 1968 and 1972 Democratic National Conventions came over credentials challenges, and while the rules of parties are different today, what happens if the Establishment challenges the credentials of Trump delegates in order to win the day?  Even here, Trump holds most of the cards.  The GOP knows they can't win if their convention produces issues of the legitimacy of their candidate. 

[Torie]

Trump's biggest challenge is that has things have evolved, he's burned his bridges with Cruz supporters with his tactics. And without that cohort of voters, how does he hit 50%?

[Beezer]

If Trump runs the table before Super Tuesday, no amount of narrowing will help the establishment. The Trumptrain will have become unstoppable by then.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Trump's biggest challenge is that has things have evolved, he's burned his bridges with Cruz supporters with his tactics. And without that cohort of voters, how does he hit 50%?

I think that Trump has found that the GOP Establishment hates Cruz more than they hate him.  They FEAR Trump more than Cruz, but they dislike Cruz in a personal way that doesn't apply to Trump.  With Trump, it's never personal; it's always business.

Trump knows how to walk tightropes in ways that Cruz can't.  Trump's bull-in-the-China-shop image serves him well; he's not been hurt by any of this.  Indeed, it's gotten him to where he is now.  If he had played the game according to Hoyle, he'd be in the kiddie table debate.

[Torie]

Trump's biggest challenge is that has things have evolved, he's burned his bridges with Cruz supporters with his tactics. And without that cohort of voters, how does he hit 50%?

I think that Trump has found that the GOP Establishment hates Cruz more than they hate him.  They FEAR Trump more than Cruz, but they dislike Cruz in a personal way that doesn't apply to Trump.  With Trump, it's never personal; it's always business.

Trump knows how to walk tightropes in ways that Cruz can't.  Trump's bull-in-the-China-shop image serves him well; he's not been hurt by any of this.  Indeed, it's gotten him to where he is now.  If he had played the game according to Hoyle, he'd be in the kiddie table debate.

That assumes it comes down to Cruz and Trump, in which case I agree with you. But what I was talking about, is if Cruz falls by the wayside. Can Trump really beat Rubio, assuming those two are the only two really in play down the line?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Trump's biggest challenge is that has things have evolved, he's burned his bridges with Cruz supporters with his tactics. And without that cohort of voters, how does he hit 50%?

I think that Trump has found that the GOP Establishment hates Cruz more than they hate him.  They FEAR Trump more than Cruz, but they dislike Cruz in a personal way that doesn't apply to Trump.  With Trump, it's never personal; it's always business.

Trump knows how to walk tightropes in ways that Cruz can't.  Trump's bull-in-the-China-shop image serves him well; he's not been hurt by any of this.  Indeed, it's gotten him to where he is now.  If he had played the game according to Hoyle, he'd be in the kiddie table debate.

That assumes it comes down to Cruz and Trump, in which case I agree with you. But what I was talking about, is if Cruz falls by the wayside. Can Trump really beat Rubio, assuming those two are the only two really in play down the line?

If Trump can dispatch Cruz, he can dispatch Rubio.  His experience in business will make Rubio look like a Republican Obama, experience-wise.  Trump's done big things; Rubio is a Management Trainee.  Rubio's the kind of guy that is ready for a Cabinet post, not the Presidency.  Trump's never held elective office, but he's been a businessman and an executive at a level most people can't even envision, and he's running for the nomination of a party which has been barking for years about how a businessman is needed to lead this country, etc.  That Trump isn't the businessman the GOP had in mind doesn't change that much.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm not sure a 2-man race would be the toughest scenario for Trump.  The one that might be more challenging for him is the scenario where all but one of the "establishment" candidates drops out, but Cruz and Carson are also still in the race, each with 10-15% or so, the majority of which might otherwise go to Trump rather than the "establishment" guy.  Basically, any scenario where you have two main adversaries, Trump vs. leading non-Trump candidate, but also one or two other candidates who are drawing more from Trump than the non-Trump guy.

[Torie]

I'm not sure a 2-man race would be the toughest scenario for Trump.  The one that might be more challenging for him is the scenario where all but one of the "establishment" candidates drops out, but Cruz and Carson are also still in the race, each with 10-15% or so, the majority of which might otherwise go to Trump rather than the "establishment" guy.  Basically, any scenario where you have two main adversaries, Trump vs. leading non-Trump candidate, but also one or two other candidates who are drawing more from Trump than the non-Trump guy.

That is why I emphasize the issue of whether the blood gets bad enough between Cruz and Trump, that Trump has difficultly getting many of his supporters. And on top of that, as so many Trumpeters like to point out, Trump is sort of an opportunistic pragmatist, while Cruz is an opportunistic hard right ideologue. So it is not as if they are really that compatible ideologically.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Depends IMO who is still in, if it's Bush, Rubio, Christie and Cruz remaining, it helps Trump immensely. If it's Cruz, Carson and Rubio it will benefit Rubio. But honestly this race is almost impossible to accurately predict.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm not sure a 2-man race would be the toughest scenario for Trump.  The one that might be more challenging for him is the scenario where all but one of the "establishment" candidates drops out, but Cruz and Carson are also still in the race, each with 10-15% or so, the majority of which might otherwise go to Trump rather than the "establishment" guy.  Basically, any scenario where you have two main adversaries, Trump vs. leading non-Trump candidate, but also one or two other candidates who are drawing more from Trump than the non-Trump guy.

That is why I emphasize the issue of whether the blood gets bad enough between Cruz and Trump, that Trump has difficultly getting many of his supporters. And on top of that, as so many Trumpeters like to point out, Trump is sort of an opportunistic pragmatist, while Cruz is an opportunistic hard right ideologue. So it is not as if they are really that compatible ideologically.

To what extent do the voters care about whether there's bad blood between their #1 choice and their #2 choice?  I think there's probably a large block of Cruz voters who'll move to Trump if Cruz drops out regardless.  But like I said, Cruz might fade somewhat and still not drop out, thereby holding on to some of those voters, thereby hurting Trump.  I guess we'll see.

An additional consideration at least for Cruz and Rubio (and maybe Christie and some of the others too) is positioning for 2020.  There's an incentive to stay in the race longer, and collect more delegates, even if you're not winning, so that you can make a bigger mark, and be in the conversation for 2020.  That's less likely to be a consideration for the older candidates though.  Bush was barely "joyful" enough to run this time.  I don't see him trying it again.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I'm not sure a 2-man race would be the toughest scenario for Trump.  The one that might be more challenging for him is the scenario where all but one of the "establishment" candidates drops out, but Cruz and Carson are also still in the race, each with 10-15% or so, the majority of which might otherwise go to Trump rather than the "establishment" guy.  Basically, any scenario where you have two main adversaries, Trump vs. leading non-Trump candidate, but also one or two other candidates who are drawing more from Trump than the non-Trump guy.

That is why I emphasize the issue of whether the blood gets bad enough between Cruz and Trump, that Trump has difficultly getting many of his supporters. And on top of that, as so many Trumpeters like to point out, Trump is sort of an opportunistic pragmatist, while Cruz is an opportunistic hard right ideologue. So it is not as if they are really that compatible ideologically.

To what extent do the voters care about whether there's bad blood between their #1 choice and their #2 choice?  I think there's probably a large block of Cruz voters who'll move to Trump if Cruz drops out regardless.  But like I said, Cruz might fade somewhat and still not drop out, thereby holding on to some of those voters, thereby hurting Trump.  I guess we'll see.

An additional consideration at least for Cruz and Rubio (and maybe Christie and some of the others too) is positioning for 2020.  There's an incentive to stay in the race longer, and collect more delegates, even if you're not winning, so that you can make a bigger mark, and be in the conversation for 2020.  That's less likely to be a consideration for the older candidates though.  Bush was barely "joyful" enough to run this time.  I don't see him trying it again.

This will definitely be Jeb's first and last time running. Assuming Trump wins the nod but loses the gen, I expect Paul and Cruz to run again, Rubio is iffy.

[Phony Moderate]

Trump's biggest challenge is that has things have evolved, he's burned his bridges with Cruz supporters with his tactics. And without that cohort of voters, how does he hit 50%?

TRUMP has gained a lot of his current support from Carson and he attacked Carson more viciously.

[Beezer]

Some folks here just assume that if it's Trump v Rubio, the entire establishment will fall in line behind the latter. Might be, but if Trump secures victory after victory between now and March, he will look a whole lot more appealing to many in the establishment. Let's not forget that Rubio isn't exactly a moderate either so he comes with his own set of baggage. His flop flopping on immigration hasn't endeared him to anyone. At least w/ Trump mainstream Republicans furthermore feel they will be able to nudge him in a certain direction once he's secured the nomination.