Predict the Iowa Caucus Results
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Author Topic: Predict the Iowa Caucus Results  (Read 11026 times)
The Free North
CTRattlesnake
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« on: January 31, 2016, 10:18:44 AM »
1 day to go folks, give it your best shot. Lets see who can beat the polls and beat their fellow atleasians at nailing the caucus results.

I'll throw them all in excel and we can calculate a net margin of error for everyone after tomorrow night. Perhaps we'll keep a running tally as the primary process continues.




Republicans

Donald Trump:
Ted Cruz:
Marco Rubio:
Ben Carson:
Rand Paul:
Jeb Bush:
John Kasich:
Chris Christie:
Carly Fiorina:
Mike Huckabee:
Rick Santorum:
Jim Gilmore:

Democrats

Hillary Clinton:
Bernie Sanders:
Martin O'Malley:
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Former Senator Haslam2020
Haslam2020
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« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2016, 10:31:08 AM »
Donald Trump: 29.1%
Ted Cruz: 24.7%
Marco Rubio: 17.2%
Ben Carson: 8.7%
Rand Paul: 5.2%
Jeb Bush: 3.0%
John Kasich: 2.9%
Mike Huckabee: 2.1%
Chris Christie: 2.1%
Rick Santorum: 2.0%
Carly Fiorina: 1.9%
Jim Gilmore: 0.5%

Hillary Clinton: 48.4
Bernie Sanders: 46.1
Martin O'Malley: 3.1%
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Progressive
jro660
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« Reply #2 on: January 31, 2016, 10:31:29 AM »
I'm going to be somewhat of a contrarian here, because I don't know whether Trump really has a ground game, but...

Republicans

Ted Cruz: 27%
Donald Trump: 26%
Marco Rubio: 22%
Rand Paul: 8%
Ben Carson: 5%
Chris Christie: 4%
Jeb Bush: 3%
John Kasich: 2%
Carly Fiorina: 1%
Mike Huckabee: 1%
Rick Santorum: ~
Jim Gilmore: ~

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 50%
Bernie Sanders: 46%
Martin O'Malley: 4%
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The Free North
CTRattlesnake
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« Reply #3 on: January 31, 2016, 10:36:56 AM »
Republicans

Donald Trump: 29.5%
Ted Cruz: 22%
Marco Rubio:16%
Ben Carson: 9%
Rand Paul: 8%
Jeb Bush: 3%
John Kasich:3%
Mike Huckabee:3%
Chris Christie:2%
Carly Fiorina: 2%
Rick Santorum: 2%
Jim Gilmore: 0.5%

Democrats

Bernie Sanders: 50%
Hillary Clinton: 49%
Martin O'Malley: 1%
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The Free North
CTRattlesnake
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« Reply #4 on: January 31, 2016, 11:00:01 AM »
Spreadsheet has been updated!

Keep 'em coming.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
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« Reply #5 on: January 31, 2016, 11:28:13 AM »
GOP
Trump 25.9%
Cruz 24.2%
Rubio 19.2%
Carson 8.5%
Paul 7.3%
Christie 3.8%
Bush 3.7%
Huckabee 2.1%
Fiorina 1.9%
Kasich 1.8%
Santorum 1.6%
Gilmore 0%

Dem
Clinton 49.2%
Sanders 48.9%
O'Malley 1.9%
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Leinad
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: January 31, 2016, 11:30:21 AM »
All in on the Atlas Freakout Special:

Republicans
30% - Ted Cruz
25% - Donald Trump
16% - Marco Rubio
  9% - Rand Paul
  8% - Ben Carson
  4% - Jeb! Bush
  2% - Mike Huckabee
  2% - Chris Christie
  2% - John Kasich
  1% - Carly Fiorina
  1% - Rick Santorum
  0% - James Gilmore

Democrats
50% - Bernie Sanders
47% - Hillary Clinton
  3% - Martin O'Malley
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #7 on: January 31, 2016, 11:45:14 AM »
Clinton 55
Sanders 43
O'Malley 2

TRUMP 30
Cruz 24
Rubio 18
Carson 9
Paul 8
Bush 4
Christie 2
Huckabee 2
Santorum 1
Fiorina 1
Kasich 1
Gilmore 0
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Ronnie
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« Reply #8 on: January 31, 2016, 11:53:33 AM »
« Edited: January 31, 2016, 12:09:22 PM by Ronnie »
Quote from: (CT) The Free North on January 31, 2016, 10:18:44 AM
1 day to go folks, give it your best shot. Lets see who can beat the polls and beat their fellow atleasians at nailing the caucus results.

I'll throw them all in excel and we can calculate a net margin of error for everyone after tomorrow night. Perhaps we'll keep a running tally as the primary process continues.




Republicans

Donald Trump: 28%
Ted Cruz: 27%
Marco Rubio: 16%
Ben Carson: 9%
Rand Paul: 7%
Jeb Bush: 4%
Mike Huckabee: 3%
Chris Christie: 2%
Rick Santorum: 2%
Carly Fiorina: 1%
John Kasich: 1%
Jim Gilmore: 0%

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 50%
Bernie Sanders: 48%
Martin O'Malley: 2%
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trickmind
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« Reply #9 on: January 31, 2016, 11:54:37 AM »
Dem

Hillary 49
Sanders 47
O'Malley 4

GOP

Trump 31
Cruz 25
Rubio 15
Carson 10
Paul 8
Christie 3
Jeb 3
Huckabee 2
Santorum 1
Fiorina 1
Kasich 1
Gilmore 0
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Torie
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« Reply #10 on: January 31, 2016, 11:54:51 AM »
« Edited: January 31, 2016, 12:11:48 PM by Torie »
Clinton 52
Sanders 46
O'Malley 2

Trump 28
Cruz 25
Rubio 21
Carson 9
Paul 7
Bush 3
Christie 2
Huckabee 2
Santorum 1
Fiorina 1
Kasich 1
Gilmore 0

I am assuming a relatively low turnout.
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LibertyCircuitRider
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« Reply #11 on: January 31, 2016, 11:55:19 AM »
Republicans
30% - Ted Cruz
29% - Donald Trump
14% - Marco Rubio
  6% - Rand Paul
  6% - Ben Carson
  4% - Jeb Bush
  2% - Mike Huckabee
  2% - Chris Christie
  2% - Carly Fiorina
  2% - John Kasich
  1% - Rick Santorum
  0% - James Gilmore

Democrats
49% - Hillary Clinton
48% - Bernie Sanders
  3% - Martin O'Malley

50% - Bernie Sanders
50% - Hillary Clinton
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PJ
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« Reply #12 on: January 31, 2016, 12:01:36 PM »
Democrats:
Clinton 50%
Sanders 46%
O'Malley 4%

Republicans:
Trump 30%
Cruz 24%
Rubio 17%
Carson 9%
Paul 5%
Bush 4%
Kasich 3%
Huckabee 3%
Christie 2%
Fiorina 2%
Santorum 1%
Gilmore 0%
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #13 on: January 31, 2016, 12:08:31 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2016, 12:10:13 PM by OC »
CLINTON 50
Sanders 46
OMalley  4

DONALD 30
Cruz 24
Rubio 15
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #14 on: January 31, 2016, 12:11:49 PM »
Democrats:
Clinton 51%
Sanders 46%
O'Malley 3%

Republicans:
Cruz 30%
Trump 28%
Rubio 16%
Carson 8%
Paul 6%
Bush 3%
Huckabee 3%
Kasich 2%
Christie 2%
Fiorina 1%
Santorum 1%
Gilmore 0%
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
Runeghost
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« Reply #15 on: January 31, 2016, 12:52:33 PM »



Republicans

Donald Trump: 29%
Ted Cruz: 29%
Marco Rubio:26%
Ben Carson: 6%
Rand Paul: 3%
Jeb Bush: 2%
John Kasich: 1%
Chris Christie: 1%
Carly Fiorina: 1%
Mike Huckabee: 1%
Rick Santorum: 1%
Jim Gilmore: 0%

Democrats
 (with O'Malley voters redistributed)
Hillary Clinton:   51%
Bernie Sanders: 49%
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #16 on: January 31, 2016, 12:53:04 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2016, 03:47:08 PM by ElectionsGuy »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on January 30, 2016, 11:45:41 AM
Sanders - 50
Clinton - 45
O'Malley - 4

Cruz - 27
Trump - 26
Rubio - 22
Carson - 8
Paul - 4
Bush - 3
Christie - 2
Kasich - 2
Huckabee - 2
Fiorina - 1
Santorum - 1

Most of us will be wrong, but why not? I'm going to say Sanders and Cruz pull upsets.

Edit: Actually, I want to change this to

Rubio - 18
Paul - 6
Huckabee - 3
Santorum - 2

and

Sanders - 50
Clinton - 49
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ProgCon
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« Reply #17 on: January 31, 2016, 12:56:46 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2016, 02:24:23 PM by Socialist Sociologist »
Republicans

29% - Donald Trump
21% - Ted Cruz
20% - Marco Rubio
09% - Rand Paul
08% - Ben Carson
03% - Rick Santorum
03% - Chris Christie
03% - Jeb Bush
02% - Mike Huckabee
01% - John Kasich
01% - Carly Fiorina
00% - Jim Gilmore

Democrats

49% - Bernie Sanders
49% - Hillary Clinton
02% - Martin O’Malley
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Pragmatic Conservative
1184AZ
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« Reply #18 on: January 31, 2016, 01:04:52 PM »




Republicans

Donald Trump:28
Ted Cruz:25
Marco Rubio:21
Ben Carson:8
Rand Paul:7
Jeb Bush:3
John Kasich:2
Chris Christie:2
Carly Fiorina:1
Mike Huckabee:1
Rick Santorum:1
Jim Gilmore:1

Democrats

Hillary Clinton:49
Bernie Sanders:47
Martin O'Malley:4
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #19 on: January 31, 2016, 01:11:44 PM »
Republicans

Donald Trump: 31
Ted Cruz: 25
Marco Rubio: 16
Ben Carson: 8
Rand Paul: 5
Jeb Bush: 3
Mike Huckabee: 3
Chris Christie: 3
John Kasich: 2
Carly Fiorina: 2
Rick Santorum: 2
Jim Gilmore: 0

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 53
Bernie Sanders: 47
Martin O'Malley: 0
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PaperKooper
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« Reply #20 on: January 31, 2016, 01:19:21 PM »
Republicans

Ted Cruz: 25%
Donald Trump: 24%
Marco Rubio: 20%
Ben Carson: 10%
Rand Paul: 6%
Jeb Bush: 5%
Chris Christie: 3%
Carly Fiorina: 2%
John Kasich: 2%
Mike Huckabee: 2%
Rick Santorum: 1%
Jim Gilmore: 0%

Democrats (Assuming O'Malley votes are reported after reallocation)

Hillary Clinton: 51%
Bernie Sanders: 47%
Martin O'Malley: 2%
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Higgs
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« Reply #21 on: January 31, 2016, 01:46:05 PM »
GOP:

Cruz - 25%
Trump - 23%
Rubio - 20%
Paul - 9%
Carson - 8%
Bush - 5%
Huckabee - 3%
Christie - 2%
Fiorina - 2%
Kasich - 2%
Santorum - 1%
Gilmore - 0% Sad

Dem:

Sanders - 49%
Clinton - 47%
O'Malley - 4%
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Vern
vern1988
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« Reply #22 on: January 31, 2016, 02:29:21 PM »





Republicans

Donald Trump:22
Ted Cruz:23
Marco Rubio:25
Ben Carson: 10
Rand Paul: 10
Jeb Bush: 5
John Kasich: 3
Chris Christie: 3
Carly Fiorina: 4
Mike Huckabee: 12
Rick Santorum:2
Jim Gilmore: 1

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 48
Bernie Sanders: 49
Martin O'Malley: 3
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PresidentTRUMP
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« Reply #23 on: January 31, 2016, 02:38:33 PM »
Republicans

Ted Cruz: 31%
Donald Trump: 29%
Marco Rubio:22%
Ben Carson: 8%
Rand Paul: 5%
Jeb Bush: 2%
John Kasich: 1%
Chris Christie: 1%
Carly Fiorina: 1%
Mike Huckabee: 1%
Rick Santorum: 1%
Jim Gilmore: 0%

Democrats
(with O'Malley voters redistributed as he own't receive the 15% needed to register votes)
Bernie Sanders: 51%
Hillary Clinton:   49%
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Oak Hills
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« Reply #24 on: January 31, 2016, 02:46:49 PM »
GOP:
Trump 28%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 17%
Carson 7%
Paul 5%
Bush 5%
Huckabee 3%
Fiorina 3%
Christie 3%
Kasich 2%
Santorum 1%
Gilmore <1%

Drop-outs: Carson, Huckabee, Santorum

Dems:
Clinton 55%
Sanders 45%
O'Malley 0% (doesn't hit viability threshold anywhere)

Drop-out: O'Malley
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