Predict the Iowa Caucus Results
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Author Topic: Predict the Iowa Caucus Results  (Read 11015 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #50 on: January 31, 2016, 08:28:04 PM »

GOP

Trump    34
Cruz       28
Rubio     24
Carson     7

Dem

Sanders   50
Clinton    48

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Miles
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« Reply #51 on: January 31, 2016, 10:47:14 PM »

Republicans

Donald Trump: 26
Ted Cruz: 24
Marco Rubio: 15
Ben Carson: 10
Rand Paul: 7
Jeb Bush: 4
John Kasich: 4
Chris Christie: 3
Carly Fiorina: 3
Mike Huckabee: 2
Rick Santorum: 2
Jim Gilmore: 0

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 51.5
Bernie Sanders: 46
Martin O'Malley: 2.5
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nolesfan2011
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« Reply #52 on: January 31, 2016, 11:00:43 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2016, 11:14:42 PM by nolesfan2011 »

Dems:
Clinton 48%
Sanders 45%
O'Malley 7%

GOP:
Trump 27%
Cruz 25%
Rubio 18%
Paul 10%
Carson 4%
Huckabee 4%
Bush 4%
Christie 3%
Fiorina 2%
Santorum 1.5%
Kasich <1%
Gilmore 0
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
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« Reply #53 on: January 31, 2016, 11:02:09 PM »

Dems:
Clinton 48%
Sanders 45%
O'Malley 7%

GOP:
Cruz 25%
Rubio 18%
Paul 10%
Carson 4%
Huckabee 4%
Bush 4%
Christie 3%
Fiorina 2%
Santorum 1.5%
Kasich <1%
Gilmore 0

Where's Trump?
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Skye
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« Reply #54 on: January 31, 2016, 11:06:19 PM »

Republicans

Donald Trump: 29
Ted Cruz: 20
Marco Rubio: 18
Ben Carson: 9
Rand Paul: 8
Jeb Bush: 4
John Kasich: 3
Chris Christie: 3
Carly Fiorina: 2
Mike Huckabee: 2
Rick Santorum: 1
Jim Gilmore: 1

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 49
Bernie Sanders: 46
Martin O'Malley: 4
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nolesfan2011
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« Reply #55 on: January 31, 2016, 11:14:51 PM »

Dems:
Clinton 48%
Sanders 45%
O'Malley 7%

GOP:
Cruz 25%
Rubio 18%
Paul 10%
Carson 4%
Huckabee 4%
Bush 4%
Christie 3%
Fiorina 2%
Santorum 1.5%
Kasich <1%
Gilmore 0

Where's Trump?

27% sorry
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Penelope
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« Reply #56 on: January 31, 2016, 11:25:23 PM »

Republican caucuses
29%  Trump
24%  Cruz
21%  Rubio
10%  Carson
  5%  Paul
  4%  Huckabee
  2%  Bush
  2%  Santorum
  1%  Fiorina
  1%  Christie
  1%  Kasich

Democratic caucuses
54%  Clinton
45%  Sanders
  1%  O'Malley

Carson, Huckabee, Santorum, and O'Malley drop out. Huckabee endorses Trump.
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The Free North
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« Reply #57 on: January 31, 2016, 11:28:58 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2016, 11:34:31 PM by (CT) The Free North »

We have over 50 sets of picks in and here are the averages thus far (through 11:28 PM on 1/31).

Keep in mind the RCP average has Trump +6.2 and Clinton +3.3


Atlas likes Trump +3.4 and Clinton +2.8



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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #58 on: January 31, 2016, 11:32:47 PM »

Sanders - 50%
Clinton - 49.5%
O'Malley - 0.5%

Cruz - 28%
Trump - 23%
Rubio - 16%
Paul - 7%
Bush - 6%
Carson - 5%
Huckabee - 4%
Christie - 4%
Fiorina - 3%
Santorum - 2%
Kasich - 1%
Gilmore - 1%
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GLPman
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« Reply #59 on: January 31, 2016, 11:44:06 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2016, 11:46:10 PM by GLPman »

Trump - 27%
Cruz - 25%
Rubio - 21%
Carson - 8%
Paul - 6%
Bush - 5%
Huckabee - 3%
Christie - 2%
Kasich - 1%
Fiorina - 1%
Santorum - 1%
Gilmore - 1%

Sanders - 49%
Clinton - 48%
O'Malley - 3%
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Harry
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« Reply #60 on: January 31, 2016, 11:52:44 PM »

Donald Trump: 28
Ted Cruz: 23
Marco Rubio: 19
Ben Carson: 8
Rand Paul: 6
Jeb Bush: 4
John Kasich: 3
Mike Huckabee: 3
Chris Christie: 3
Rick Santorum: 2
Carly Fiorina: 1
Jim Gilmore: 0


Hillary Clinton: 52
Bernie Sanders: 47
Martin O'Malley: 2
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PPT Spiral
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« Reply #61 on: February 01, 2016, 12:21:37 AM »
« Edited: February 01, 2016, 01:01:15 AM by Spiral »

Trump - 29%
Cruz - 25%
Rubio - 16%
Carson - 11%
Paul - 6%
Bush - 4%
Huckabee - 3%
Christie - 3%
Santorum - 1%
Fiorina - 1%
Kasich - 1%
Gilmore - 0%

Sanders - 50%
Clinton - 49%
O'Malley - 1%
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Former Senator Haslam2020
Haslam2020
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« Reply #62 on: February 01, 2016, 12:31:07 AM »

Can I please change my Paul result to 9.2%? Thanks!
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ericpolitico
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« Reply #63 on: February 01, 2016, 12:33:51 AM »

GOP
Cruz 27
Trump 25
Rubio 20
Carson 8
Paul 5
Bush 4
Huckabee 4
Christie 3
Kasich 2
Fiorina 1
Santorum 1
Gilmore 0

Democrat
Hillary 50-51
Bernie 44-45
O'Malley 5

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Asian Nazi
d32123
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« Reply #64 on: February 01, 2016, 12:39:22 AM »

GOP:

Trump 29
Cruz 22
Rubio 15
Carson 13
Paul 5
Christie 3
Bush 2
Fiorina 2
Huckabee 3
Kasich 2
Santorum 3
Gilmore 1

Demcrats:

Clinton 53
Sanders 44
O'Malley 3
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cxs018
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« Reply #65 on: February 01, 2016, 01:11:37 AM »

Going to trust -StatesPoll.com- on this one:

"you can see as the more radical ideology, more enthusiastic.

and enthusiastic = more likely goes to the vote than others.

especially, supporters of Sanders they are more active support and have loyalty than hillary’s support. supporters of sanders are generally more liberal than hillary for sure also.

conclusion

1. The total gap is just 6%

2. Thinking about voting rate(turnout) as ideology

3. I think Very liberal,Liberal they gonna more lean to Sanders day by day

because his political position is far much more lett than hillary.

(you know, reputation of hillary, she was kinda conservative as a democrat.

of course personaly i dont see her as a conservative politician at all. but let just focus about her image and reputation to most democrat people.)

I think the Possibility of Sander’s winning iowa getting higher with new CBS poll.

and he is winning on New Hampshire with very big gaps in same CBS poll

with 56%(sanders) : 42%(hillary). Sanders is losing to hillary on the National poll with big gaps. but if sanders win Iowa and New Hampshire in a row. it can be change.

I think, now on people should think about a possibility,

TRUMP vs SANDERS in general election."
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #66 on: February 01, 2016, 02:19:31 AM »

My new prediction:

DEMs:

49% Sanders [X]
48% Clinton
  3% O'Malley

If O'Malley-voters are redistributed:

51% Sanders [X]
49% Clinton

GOP:

26% Trump [X]
24% Cruz
23% Rubio
  7% Carson
  6% Paul
  5% Bush
  3% Kasich
  2% Christie
  2% Huckabee
  1% Fiorina
  1% Santorum
  0% Gilmore
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Bacon King
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« Reply #67 on: February 01, 2016, 05:07:15 AM »

On the GOP side I'm sticking with the prediction I made last Friday on AAD:

Trump 33%
Rubio 22%
Cruz 19%
Carson 6%
Paul 6%
Jeb! 6%
Christie 3%
Huckabee 2%
Kasich 2%
Fiorina 1%
Santorum 0%
Gilmore 0%

Changing my Iowa prediction to this, though:

Hillary 58%
Bernie 41%
unidentified man 1%
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Wells
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« Reply #68 on: February 01, 2016, 05:54:09 AM »
« Edited: February 01, 2016, 05:56:46 AM by MikeWells12 »

Final Iowa predictions. The caucus takes place tomorrow.
Republicans:
Prediction
Trump 28.1%
Cruz 25.1%
Rubio 16.2%
Carson 9.4%
Bush 4.5%
Paul 4.4%
Christie 3.2%
Huckabee 2.8%
Kasich 2.4%
Fiorina 2.4%
Santorum 1.3%
Gilmore 0.3%

Democrats:
Prediction
Clinton 49.7%
Sanders 43.5%
O'Malley 5.3%
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
JOHN91043353
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« Reply #69 on: February 01, 2016, 07:14:33 AM »

REPUBLICANS

Trump     30%
Cruz     21%
Rubio     17%
Carson     10%
Paul     7%
Huckabee     3%
Bush     3%
Christie     3%
Santorum     2%
Fiorina     2%
Kasich     > 1%
Gilmore     > 1%

DEMOCRATS

Clinton     51%
Sanders     48%
O'Malley     1% 
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Platypus
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« Reply #70 on: February 01, 2016, 07:33:06 AM »

Delegates, yeah?

D:

Clinton 50%
Sanders 47%
O'Malley 3%

R:

Trump 31%
Cruz 26%
Rubio 24%
Paul 7%
Carson 4%
Others 8%
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #71 on: February 01, 2016, 08:43:27 AM »

GOP:

Trump 26%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 18%
Carson 9%
Paul 8%
Bush 4%
Huckabee 4%
Christie 3%
Santorum 2%
Fiorina 1%
Kasich 1%
Gilmore 0%

Demcrats:

Clinton 50%
Sanders 49%
O'Malley 1%
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Admiral Kizaru
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« Reply #72 on: February 01, 2016, 08:48:41 AM »

Republicans

DONALD TRUMP: 27
Ted Cruz: 22
Marco Rubio: 19
Rand Paul: 9
Ben Carson: 8
Jeb Bush: 3
John Kasich: 3
Chris Christie: 3
Mike Huckabee: 3
Carly Fiorina: 1
Rick Santorum: 1
THE GILMORE: 1

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 52
Bernie Sanders: 44
Martin O'Malley: 4
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #73 on: February 01, 2016, 08:53:42 AM »

GOP:

Cruz: 29%
Rubio: 25%
Trump: 21%
Carson: 10%
Bush: 7%
Huckabee: 6%

all others below 5%


DEM:

Clinton: 49%
Sanders: 44%
O'Malley: 5%
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NHI
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« Reply #74 on: February 01, 2016, 10:17:57 AM »

Trump: 28%
Cruz:    23%
Rubio:   20%
Carson:  10%
Bush:       7%
Huckabee:  6%
Paul:          3%

Everyone else: 3%

Clinton: 49%
Sanders: 47%
O'Malley:  4%
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