Predict the Iowa Caucus Results

[Goodwin]

GOP
D. Trump 30%
T. Cruz 23%
M. Rubio 18%
B. Carson 8%
R. Paul 7%
J. Bush 4%
M. Huckabee 3%
C. Christie 2%
J. Kasich 2%
C. Fiorina 2%
R. Santorum 1%
J. Gilmore 0%

Dems
H. Clinton 53%
B. Sanders 45%
M. O'Malley 1%

[The Free North]

Just a clarification point....

I believe the democrats only release the delegate totals so the percentages you put down for the Dem side should represent that. Candidates must garner 15% of the support at their caucus in order to be eligible to earn delegates, so keep that in mind.


Since the exit polls are coming out at 8 New York time, i'll keep this open until an hour before then in case people want to edit and/or add picks.  

[The Other Castro]

Are they exit polls or entrance polls? If they're entrance polls, O'Malley's percentage is going to be seriously overestimated.

[Smash255]

Sanders by 2, O'Malley with something like 0.2% (might reach the threshold it a couple precincts)

Trump 29, Cruz 25, Rubio 23

[°Leprechaun]

Will Donald Trump see his shadow tomorrow?

(numbers = % of the vote)
Donald Trump:    25
Ted Cruz:      21
Marco Rubio:   20
Ben Carson:   11
Rand Paul:   5
Jeb Bush:      5
John Kasich:   4
Chris Christie:   3
Carly Fiorina:   2
Mike Huckabee:   2
Rick Santorum:   1
Jim Gilmore:   1
All others:      0

(delegates based on the assumption that there are
54 total, is that correct?)
Clinton:      26 delegates
Sanders:      27 delegates
O'Malley      1   delegate
All others      0   

[ilikeverin]

Republicans

Donald Trump: 27%
Ted Cruz: 28%
Marco Rubio: 18%
Ben Carson: 9%
Rand Paul: 4%
Jeb Bush: 4%
John Kasich: 2%
Chris Christie: 2%
Carly Fiorina: 2%
Mike Huckabee: 3%
Rick Santorum: 1%
Jim Gilmore: 0%

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 49%
Bernie Sanders: 47%
Martin O'Malley: 4%

[Smash255]

Are they exit polls or entrance polls? If they're entrance polls, O'Malley's percentage is going to be seriously overestimated.

Entrance polls

[RI]

Republican:

Trump 30
Cruz 25
Rubio 17
Carson 11
Paul 6
Huckabee 3
Bush 2
Christie 2
Fiorina 2
Kasich 1
Santorum 1
Gilmore 0

Democratic:

Clinton 52
Sanders 47
O'Malley 1

[The Free North]

Are they exit polls or entrance polls? If they're entrance polls, O'Malley's percentage is going to be seriously overestimated.

Entrance polls come out at 8 before the caucus starts.

[Vern]

Can I change my Democratic numbers to : Bernie: 51  Hillary: 48, Martin: 1

[The Free North]

Can I change my Democratic numbers to : Bernie: 51  Hillary: 48, Martin: 1

Updated.

All other edits have been done as well.

We now have close to 75 picks!

[Skye]

Can I change my Democratic numbers to : Bernie: 51  Hillary: 48, Martin: 1

Updated.

All other edits have been done as well.

We now have close to 75 picks!

Pics or didn't happen!

[MasterJedi]

Will just predict Hillary by 6% and Trump (blech) by 3%.

[The Free North]

Can I change my Democratic numbers to : Bernie: 51  Hillary: 48, Martin: 1

Updated.

All other edits have been done as well.

We now have close to 75 picks!

Pics or didn't happen!

Maybe ill just share this as a google doc later...

[mvd10]

Trump 26%
Cruz 24%
Rubio 19%
Carson 10%
Bush 5%
Paul 5%
Christie 3%
Huckabee 3%
Kasich 2%
Fiorina 2%
Santorum 1%

Clinton 51%
Sanders 46%
O'Malley 3%

[Slow Learner]

GOP:

Trump - 36%
Cruz - 20%
Rubio - 14%
Huckabee - 6%
Carson - 5%
Bush - 5%
Gilmore (lol) - 3%
Santorum - 3%
Christie - 3%
Paul - 1%
Kasich/Fiorina - <1%

Dem:

Clinton - 51%
Sanders - 45%
O'Malley - 3%

[Senator Cris]

Republicans:
28.3% Trump
24.2% Cruz
18.0% Rubio
  7.7% Carson
  4.6% Paul
  4.1% Bush
  3.6% Huckabee
  3.1% Kasich
  2.5% Fiorina
  2.5% Christie
  1.3% Santorum
  0.1% Gilmore

Democrats:
51.0% Clinton
48.0% Sanders
  1.0% O'Malley

[Torie]

Can I change my Democratic numbers to : Bernie: 51  Hillary: 48, Martin: 1

Updated.

All other edits have been done as well.

We now have close to 75 picks!

Pics or didn't happen!

Maybe ill just share this as a google doc later...

It's probably too much work, but it might be interesting if you organized the predictions, but something other than in the order made, say by Trump percentages, from high to low. Not only is Trump the hot button item around here, but as Trump goes down, either Cruz or Rubio or both will tend to be going up, so that might be the best filter.

[Umengus]

1 day to go folks, give it your best shot. Lets see who can beat the polls and beat their fellow atleasians at nailing the caucus results.

I'll throw them all in excel and we can calculate a net margin of error for everyone after tomorrow night. Perhaps we'll keep a running tally as the primary process continues.




Republicans

Donald Trump: 25
Ted Cruz: 28
Marco Rubio: 19
Ben Carson: 6
Rand Paul: 4
Jeb Bush: 5
John Kasich: 2
Chris Christie: 3
Carly Fiorina: 3
Mike Huckabee: 2
Rick Santorum: 2
Jim Gilmore: 1

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 51
Bernie Sanders: 47
Martin O'Malley:2

[The Free North]

Can I change my Democratic numbers to : Bernie: 51  Hillary: 48, Martin: 1

Updated.

All other edits have been done as well.

We now have close to 75 picks!

Pics or didn't happen!

Maybe ill just share this as a google doc later...

It's probably too much work, but it might be interesting if you organized the predictions, but something other than in the order made, say by Trump percentages, from high to low. Not only is Trump the hot button item around here, but as Trump goes down, either Cruz or Rubio or both will tend to be going up, so that might be the best filter.

We'll the ultimate goal is to see who's prediction is closest to the actual results, but the point regarding Trump's strength is well taken.

It would be interesting to scatter Trump's predicted % with overall % error to see if there is any sort of relationship or bias between the two.

[Horus]

Bernie - 49.1
Hillary - 48.9
O'Malley - 1
Other - 1

Trump - 23
Cruz - 22
Rubio - 20
Carson - 6
Bush - 6
Paul - 5
Kasich - 5
Christie - 4
Fiorina - 4
Huckabee - 3
Santorum - 1
Other - 1

[xavier110]

GOP

Trump: 31
Cruz: 25
Rubio: 24
Carson: 7
Paul: 4
Bush: 2
Huckabee: 2
Fiorina: 2
Kasich: 1
Christie: 1
Santorum: 1
Other: 0

Dens

Sanders: 50
Clinton: 47
O'Malley: 3

[Smash255]

Sanders by 2, O'Malley with something like 0.2% (might reach the threshold it a couple precincts)

Trump 29, Cruz 25, Rubio 23

Carson 7
Bush 5
Paul 4
Kasich 4
Christie 2
Carly 1
Huckabee 1
Santorum .5

= 102 due to rounding, those who have the same %, I put in order of where I think they will be at that %

[President Johnson]

Hillary Clinton: 52%
Bernie "feel the Bern" Sanders: 46%
Martin O'Malley: 2%


Donald Trump: 29%
Rafael Eduardo Cruz: 24%
Marco Rubio: 20%
Ben Carson: 8%
Mike Huckabee: 5%
¿Jeb?: 4%
Rand Paul: 3%
Carly Fiorina: 2%
John Kasich: 2%
Chris Christie: 2%
Rick Santorum: 1%
Jim Gilmore: <1%

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

(delegates based on the assumption that there are
54 total, is that correct?)
Clinton:      26 delegates
Sanders:      27 delegates
O'Malley      1   delegate
All others      0   

There are 54 state delegates to the national convention, but the prediction here is for the delegates from each caucus location, and there will be several thousand of these total I think.