Predict the Iowa Caucus Results

[This account no longer in use.]

Republicans:

Trump 27
Cruz 26
Rubio 18
Carson 9
Paul 8
Huckabee 4
Bush 3
Christie 2
Kasich 1
Fiorina 1
Gilmore 1
Santorum 0

Democrats:

Sanders 50
Clinton 49
O'Malley 1

[CatoMinor]

Trump 27
Cruz 25
Paul 15
Rubio 11
Carson 6


Clinton 49%
Sanders 47%

[ViaActiva]

Operating on the Jeremy Corbyn principle of if anything can go wrong it will...

GOP

Donald Trump: 38%
Marco Rubio: 18%
Ted Cruz: 18%
Rand Paul: 6%
Ben Carson: 5%
Jeb Bush: 4%
Mike Huckabee: 3%
Chris Christie: 3%
John Kasich: 1%
Rick Santorum: 1%
Carly Fiorina: 1%
Jim Gilmore: 0%

DEM

Hillary Clinton: 58%
Bernie Sanders: 39%
Martin O'Malley: 3%

[RBH]

Hillary 52, Bernie 47, other 1

Trump 27, Cruz 23, Rubio 18, Carson 13, Paul 10, others 9

[Higgs]

Sorry to disturb, but I think you have mine backwards. I had Cruz at 25 and Trump at 23

[Blair]

Hillary 53, Sanders 45, O'Malley 2

[Talleyrand]

Final Predictions

Cruz- 29
Rubio- 25
Trump- 23
Carson- 8

Clinton- 53
Sanders- 46

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Trump - 29
Cruz - 25
Rubio - 21
Paul - 10
Carson - 8

Clinton - 51
Sanders - 47

[pho]

31% Trump
25% Cruz
16% Rubio
10% Paul
  8% Carson

51% Clinton
45% Sanders
  4% O'Malley

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Republicans

Donald Trump: 25.5%
Ted Cruz: 27%
Marco Rubio: 21%
Ben Carson: 7%
Rand Paul: 7.5%
Jeb Bush: 4%
John Kasich: 1.5%
Chris Christie: 2%
Carly Fiorina: 2%
Mike Huckabee: 1.5%
Rick Santorum: 0.8%
Jim Gilmore: 0.2%

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 49.5%
Bernie Sanders: 50%
Martin O'Malley: 0.5%

[Del Tachi]

Hillary - 52.9%
Sanders - 43.4%

Cruz - 26.8%
Trump - 23.1%
Rubio - 18.0%
Carson - 7.8%

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Final predictions:
GOP-
Trump: 24.9%
Rubio: 23.2%
Cruz: 22.5%
Paul: 11.0%
Carson: 8.4%
Bush- 4.0%
Huckabee- 2.5%
Christie- 1.2%
Santorum- 0.9%
Fiorina- 0.6%
Kasich- 0.5%
Gilmore- 0.1%

Democrats-
Clinton: 50.3%
Sanders: 45.9%
O'Malley: 3.8%

Chance of Winning:
GOP: Trump 40%, Rubio 30%, Cruz 30%
Dems: Clinton 65%, Sanders 35%

[Krzysztof Lesiak]

My prediction for the GOP caucus:

Donald Trump 29%
Ted Cruz 27%
Marco Rubio 16%
Ben Carson 9%
Rand Paul 7%
Jeb Bush 4%
Mike Huckabee 3%
John Kasich 2%
Chris Christie 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Carly Fiorina 1%
Jim Gilmore 0%

As for Dems:

Hillary Clinton 49%
Bernie Sanders 47%
Martin O'Malley 4%

[The Free North]

All edits and predictions updated as of 6:04 PM.



Since the exit poll comes out at 8, we'll stop taking predictions then.

I've got over 90 total submissions so far! Gonna be awesome to crunch these numbers later and see who got closest (and furthest) from the actual results.

[The Free North]

In an aggregate of the 91 predictions thus far, Trump leads by 3.3 and Clinton leads by 3.6

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[EliteLX]

Final Prediction:

Donald Trump 27%
Ted Cruz 23%
Marco Rubio 19%
Ben Carson 9%
Rand Paul 9%
Jeb Bush 5%
Mike Huckabee 3%
John Kasich 2%
Chris Christie 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
Carly Fiorina 1%
Jim Gilmore 0%

Dems:

Hillary Clinton 50%
Bernie Sanders 46%
Martin O'Malley 3%

[Higgs]

GOP:

Cruz - 25%
Trump - 23%
Rubio - 20%
Paul - 9%
Carson - 8%
Bush - 5%
Huckabee - 3%
Christie - 2%
Fiorina - 2%
Kasich - 2%
Santorum - 1%
Gilmore - 0%

Dem:

Sanders - 49%
Clinton - 47%
O'Malley - 4%

I think I did okay. I way overestimated Paul and underestimated Rubio.

I guess we'll have to wait and see how my Dem predictions turn out, although it's looking like a Clinton win.

[ElectionsGuy]

Sanders - 50
Clinton - 45
O'Malley - 4

Cruz - 27
Trump - 26
Rubio - 22
Carson - 8
Paul - 4
Bush - 3
Christie - 2
Kasich - 2
Huckabee - 2
Fiorina - 1
Santorum - 1

Most of us will be wrong, but why not? I'm going to say Sanders and Cruz pull upsets.

Edit: Actually, I want to change this to

Rubio - 18
Paul - 6
Huckabee - 3
Santorum - 2

and

Sanders - 50
Clinton - 49

Error

Cruz: -1
Trump: +2
Rubio: -5
Carson: -1
Paul: +2
Bush: 0
Kasich: 0
Christie: 0
Huckabee: +1
Santorum +1
Fiorina: -1
Gilmore: 0

Clinton: -1
Sanders: 0
O'Malley: 0

I wish I stuck with my original Rubio prediction.

[Boston Bread]

Error
Sanders 51 (+1)
Clinton 49 (-1)
O'Malley 0 (-1)

Trump 30 (+6)
Cruz 25 (-3)
Rubio 18 (-5)
Carson 7 (-2)
Paul 5
Bush 4 (+1)
Huckabee 3 (+1)
Kasich 3 (+1)
Christie 3 (+1)
Fiorina 1 (-1)
Santorum 1
Gilmore 0

Ouch for Trump.

[Maxwell]

Republican Error -
Trump - 35% (+11)
Rubio - 21% (-2)
Cruz - 16% (-12)
Paul - 10% (+5)
Carson - 5% (-4)
Bush - 5% (+2)
Christie - 3% (+1)
Huckabee - 2% (0)
Fiorina - 1% (-1)
Santorum - 1% (0)
Kasich - 1% (-1)
Gilmore - 0% (0)

Std. Dev. - 17.8%

Ouch!

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Compared to the caucus results:

Parentheses indicate how much better a candidate did than my prediction.

Republicans

Donald Trump: 25.5% (-1.2)
Ted Cruz: 27% (+0.7)
Marco Rubio: 21% (+2.1)
Ben Carson: 7% (+2.3)
Rand Paul: 7.5% (-3.0)
Jeb Bush: 4% (-1.2)
John Kasich: 1.5% (+0.4)
Chris Christie: 2% (-0.2)
Carly Fiorina: 2% (-0.1)
Mike Huckabee: 1.5% (+0.3)
Rick Santorum: 0.8% (+0.2)
Jim Gilmore: 0.2% (-0.2)

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 49.5% (+0.4)
Bernie Sanders: 50% (-0.4)
Martin O'Malley: 0.5% (+0.1)

Dems are still a bit early, but I did them anyways. I did pick the Republican winner (and I picked places 2-6 as well) and I saw that the Dems would be close.

[Penelope]

Average error compared to the caucus results (+5 means I overestimated Trump, -4 means I underestimated Sanders, etc)

Republican caucuses
29%  Trump (+5)
24%  Cruz (-4)
21%  Rubio (-2)
10%  Carson (+1)
  5%  Paul (~)
  4%  Huckabee (+2)
  2%  Bush (-1)
  2%  Santorum (+1)
  1%  Fiorina (-1)
  1%  Christie (-1)
  1%  Kasich (-1)

Democratic caucuses
54%  Clinton (+4)
45%  Sanders (-4)
  1%  O'Malley (~)

Carson, Huckabee, Santorum, and O'Malley drop out. Huckabee endorses Trump.