IA-Opinion Savvy weekend polling: Trump, Cruz, and Rubio within 2 points
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 25, 2024, 03:58:47 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
  IA-Opinion Savvy weekend polling: Trump, Cruz, and Rubio within 2 points		 « previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: IA-Opinion Savvy weekend polling: Trump, Cruz, and Rubio within 2 points  (Read 1996 times)
HillOfANight
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,459
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: January 31, 2016, 08:08:54 PM »
http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/01/31/2851/

Trump has lost his edge, while Rubio has climbed to within one point of Cruz. In fact, all three candidates are within two points of each other.

Trump 20.1
Cruz   19.4
Rubio 18.6
Carson 9
Paul   8.6
Bush   4.9
Huckabee   4.4
Kasich 4
Fiorina 3.8
Christie 3
Undecided   2.2
Santorum 2.1
Logged
Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2016, 08:09:50 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2016, 08:12:38 PM by Ted Bessell, Bass God of the West »
#Rubimentum #CantNarcoTheMarco #SelfFulfillingProphecy

EDIT: I missed those great Paul numbers! #RandMentum #CantBackhandTheRand
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: January 31, 2016, 08:10:08 PM »
This sounds like trash but those are great numbers for Rubs and Paul.
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,778


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: January 31, 2016, 08:11:23 PM »
This poll has a much tighter voter screen than Selzer-- they exclude anyone who doesn't say they're "definitely" voting.
Logged
HillOfANight
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,459
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: January 31, 2016, 08:15:01 PM »
Quote from: realisticidealist on January 31, 2016, 08:11:23 PM
This poll has a much tighter voter screen than Selzer-- they exclude anyone who doesn't say they're "definitely" voting.

Didn't see that, good point.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/upshot/why-this-is-the-iowa-poll-that-everyones-waiting-for.html?_r=0

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Including "probably" has worked for Selzer so far. Even if this is too tight, they did detect movement away from Cruz after the mailing mishap.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: January 31, 2016, 08:27:20 PM »
Junk poll!
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: January 31, 2016, 08:31:20 PM »
Quote from: realisticidealist on January 31, 2016, 08:11:23 PM
This poll has a much tighter voter screen than Selzer-- they exclude anyone who doesn't say they're "definitely" voting.

If Trump is still ahead among "definite" voters (granted, it's very close) he should have this in the bag.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,844
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: January 31, 2016, 08:35:47 PM »
Yeah, let's ignore Selzer and PPP. Opinion Savvy is the one to trust.
Logged
bigedlb
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 280
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: January 31, 2016, 08:36:19 PM »
Opinion Savvy has peculiar numbers

No other poll has Trump lower than 28.  they have 20
No other poll has Cruz lower than 23  These folks have 19
Rubio's number matches his highest
Rand Paul is double his highest

Someone was drunk when they did this...
Logged
/
darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,367
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: January 31, 2016, 08:37:27 PM »
wat
Logged
muon2
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,801


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: January 31, 2016, 09:11:06 PM »
The snow should only affect the SW corner of the state. The snow is not expected to reach Des Moines until well after the caucus.
Logged
H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,115
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: January 31, 2016, 09:27:30 PM »
Quote from: muon2 on January 31, 2016, 09:11:06 PM
The snow should only affect the SW corner of the state. The snow is not expected to reach Des Moines until well after the caucus.

Who has the most support there?
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,778


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: January 31, 2016, 09:39:34 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2016, 09:41:33 PM by realisticidealist »
Quote from: Solidarity Forever on January 31, 2016, 09:27:30 PM
Quote from: muon2 on January 31, 2016, 09:11:06 PM
The snow should only affect the SW corner of the state. The snow is not expected to reach Des Moines until well after the caucus.

Who has the most support there?

Hard to know exactly. Most polls don't break support by CD or region. Loras back on 1/18 had Trump up 27-20 in CD-3, but Monmouth had Cruz up 32-27 in the southwest region the following day. These can only both be true if Trump's polling well near Des Moines.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,307
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: January 31, 2016, 10:03:36 PM »
Yep, let's ignore the most accurate Iowa pollster for this one, since the results are more to my liking!
Logged
I Will Not Be Wrong
outofbox6
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,351
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: January 31, 2016, 10:06:45 PM »
THANK THE LORD
Logged
Lord of the Dome
Rookie
**
Posts: 109
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: January 31, 2016, 10:33:03 PM »
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: January 31, 2016, 10:46:05 PM »
Likely garbage. It'll be real funny if this poll ends up being the most accurate though.
Logged
yankeesfan
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,148
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: January 31, 2016, 10:50:32 PM »
A lot of pollsters left the state early.  I think there's a lot of movement happening.
Logged
bigedlb
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 280
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: January 31, 2016, 11:45:52 PM »
this isn't movement,  this is putting p numbers by rolling dice
Logged
bigedlb
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 280
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: February 01, 2016, 12:06:24 AM »
Most recent Florida polls for Trump:
Opinion Savvy 31
Sun Sentinel 48
CBS/Yougov 41

Georgia for Trump
Opinion Savvy 23
CBS/Yougov 29

S Carolina for Trump
Opinion Savvy 31
CBS/Yougov 40
NBC/WSJ 36

Houston, We have a pattern. Add 5 points to the Trump Iowa number for Savvy
Logged
Former Senator Haslam2020
Haslam2020
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,345
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: February 01, 2016, 12:28:52 AM »
Probably trash but GO RAND GO
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,731


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: February 02, 2016, 04:02:10 AM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on January 31, 2016, 10:46:05 PM
Likely garbage. It'll be real funny if this poll ends up being the most accurate though.

Guess what? LOL!
Logged
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: February 02, 2016, 11:10:34 AM »
GREAT POLL!
VERY HIGH ENERGY RESULTS.
Logged
Zanas
Zanas46
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,947
France


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: February 02, 2016, 05:48:35 PM »
It was crucial to be on the field as late as possible, however crappy pollster one could be.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: February 02, 2016, 05:50:01 PM »
Quote from: Watermelon sin Jamón on February 02, 2016, 05:48:35 PM
It was crucial to be on the field as late as possible, however crappy pollster one could be.

Selzer should've done the 27th-30th rather than the 26th-29th. And even maybe go into the field on the 31st and done revisions if necessary.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.051 seconds with 13 queries.