REP Iowa (Emerson): Trump 27% Cruz 26% Rubio 22%

[psychprofessor]

Full results and cross-tabs in the morning

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling

[The Other Castro]

Trump - 27%   
Cruz - 26%   
Rubio - 22%   
Huckabee - 5%
Kasich - 4%      
Bush - 4%   
Paul - 3%   
Carson - 3%   
Christie - 3%   
Fiorina - 2%   
Santorum - 1%

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/emerson-college-polling-society-23639

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Huckabee in 4th?!? JUNK POLL!!!!

[Sorenroy]

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/emerson-college-polling-society-23639
Change from last poll (week and a half ago)
Trump — 27 (-6)
Cruz — 26 (+3)
Rubio — 22 (+8)
Huckabee — 5 (+3)
Kasich — 4 (+1)
Bush — 4 (-1)
Paul — 3 (No Change)
Christie — 3 (-2)
Carson — 3 (-6)
Fiorina — 2 (No Change)
Santorum — 1 (+1*)
Gilmore — 0 (No Change**)

*Candidate was not included in first poll.
**Candidate was not included in either poll.

As a side note, this is the second pollster to show huge momentum for Rubio in these final few days. I wonder if it's just because they are awful pollsters, or if something is really happening.

[The Other Castro]

If Rubio comes in 2nd, I think he might be the likely nominee.

[Maxwell]

If Rubio comes in 2nd, I think he might be the likely nominee.

The problem is he still has to beat the Donald (who so far has made mince meat of every opponent) and he has to do well in New Hampshire, where a bunch of vain people (Christie, Bush, Kasich) are going to smack him in the face in the debates and in ads.

[tmthforu94]

If Rubio comes in 2nd, I think he might be the likely nominee.

He'd stand a good shot. But if Rubio wins? I didn't see it as likely, but the two polls tonight make me think it isn't impossible. If Rubio wins Iowa, everyone else needs to drop out so he can win New Hampshire, too.

[Xing]

Rubio getting second is within the realm of possibility, but he'll have a tough time beating Trump in NH, and I can't see him doing well in SC. I still think he's going to get third, though, since he's not the first choice of enough people.

[RI]

New Poll: Iowa President by Emerson College on 2016-01-31

Summary:

Trump:	27%
Cruz:	26%
Rubio:	22%
Other:	24%
Undecided:	1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[RI]

Emerson's a godawful pollster, but it seems Rubio may have some momentum, though the OpinionSavvy poll is hardly solid evidence. I'd still put a lot more weight on Selzer.

Also, pretty big MoE on this with fewer than 300 responses.

[This account no longer in use.]

I'd be fine with this. Carson at three, and Huckabee and Kasich surges for no apparent reason.

[Eraserhead]

These results would greatly amuse me but they won't happen.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Stop trolling, Emerson

[IceSpear]

If Rubio comes in 2nd, I think he might be the likely nominee.

The problem is he still has to beat the Donald (who so far has made mince meat of every opponent) and he has to do well in New Hampshire, where a bunch of vain people (Christie, Bush, Kasich) are going to smack him in the face in the debates and in ads.

If the media can rig it to where he gets 2nd in Iowa, I'm sure they can rig it for him to win NH too.

And yeah, the media did rig it. Selzer proved he had NO momentum until every media outlet under the sun started spamming that he did with no evidence. If these junk polls turn out to be true, then we've isolated the sole variable that could be responsible.

[Tender Branson]

Wow, hopefully Rubio can pull this out somehow.

I took a 20€ bet on Rubio just yesterday and would win some 300€ if he does.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think Rubio could win. Santorm was also no 3 in the polls four years ago.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think Rubio could win. Santorm was also no 3 in the polls four years ago.

Santorum had momentum. Rubio has been static according to all respectable polls.

[Phony Moderate]

It has to be said that this reeks of being a case of a nonentity pollster putting out questionable numbers to get itself attention. But who knows.

[Phony Moderate]

Just ftr...

who care

[Zanas]

Let's face it : Rubio has been within 10 pts of Cruz in all of the 8 latest RCP average polls except Gravis, and in the two latest ones he's within 5 of Cruz and Trump. I guess we can safely assume he is indeed picking up support. Seeing how momentum and its media coverage makes nearly everything in US elections these days, and especially primaries and caucuses, and seeing how Cruz is going downhill, I'd say there are now more chances for Rubio to finish 2d than 3d. Trump, however trending down as well, should still be outside of his league for now.

[Türkisblau]

Can't believe this has 18 replies. Are people here really desperate enough that they'll latch onto anything that shows that Trump can lose?

[Zanas]

Can't believe this has 18 replies. Are people here really desperate enough that they'll latch onto anything that shows that Trump can lose?

Actually, I think this poll only shows that Cruz may lose, and be replaced as anti-Trump frontrunner by Rubio. I still think these figures end in a Trump win in Iowa. If Rubio overcomes Cruz in Iowa, where evangelicals are a numerous demographic, he should trounce him in NH next week, where they are already basically tied, and evangelicals are much scarcer.

[Türkisblau]

Can't believe this has 18 replies. Are people here really desperate enough that they'll latch onto anything that shows that Trump can lose?

Actually, I think this poll only shows that Cruz may lose, and be replaced as anti-Trump frontrunner by Rubio. I still think these figures end in a Trump win in Iowa. If Rubio overcomes Cruz in Iowa, where evangelicals are a numerous demographic, he should trounce him in NH next week, where they are already basically tied, and evangelicals are much scarcer.

First off, the polls shows nothing because Emerson is pure, unadulterated junk. Trump has consistently led Cruz by 4+ over the past week or two, and a MOE poll would pretty clearly show it tightened significantly and that Cruz has a good chance to win which is why Emerson released these numbers. It's bait; they want more clicks.

[Torie]

Can't believe this has 18 replies. Are people here really desperate enough that they'll latch onto anything that shows that Trump can lose?

It's better than nothing honey.

[mencken]

You guys act like it actually matters whether the polls showing Rubio with momentum have any credibility. The original poll showing Santorum's momentum was most likely junk, until its findings became a self-fulfilling prophecy.