Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)

[Boston Bread]

Why did Polk/Des Moines go from 1 precinct left to 2?

[Broken System]

Ok, one more Black Hawk precinct finished, one Polk precinct unfinished.

[tpfkaw]

Why did Polk/Des Moines go from 1 precinct left to 2?

One of the campaigns disputed the result.

[/]

One of Sanders' delegates just disappeared...

[Boston Bread]

One of Sanders' delegates just disappeared...

Probably that Polk precinct that went disputed.

[Holmes]

One of Sanders' delegates just disappeared...

Probably from the precinct being disputed.

[Volrath50]

One of Sanders' delegates just disappeared...

Taken away in a black helicopter, I presume.

[YPestis25]

One of Sanders' delegates just disappeared...

Probably from the precinct being disputed.

Do we know who is disputing it and why?

[Mr. Morden]

Wolf Blitzer says "much more" of their Iowa coverage is coming up.  "Much" more?  Just how many more hours are they going to keep going?

[IceSpear]

Can someone explain how this is a victory for Sanders? Not to be a hack, but I seriously don't get it. Yes, he did far better than anyone thought he would do early in the year and overcame an initial massive deficit. But that's all old news and has already been factored into the equation for ages. Him possibly winning Iowa was seen as a distinct possibility for months now. It's one of his top 5 most demographically friendly states...and he could only manage a tie.

All the media spin just uses "he's a REAL threat to Clinton now!" as justification, but again, we've already known for ages he had a decent shot to win Iowa.

[cinyc]

Come on black hawk county!

Hancock looks kinda threatening; they still have 20% out and it's for Hillary in the 60s so far.

Precincts 5 and 10 are out.  Clinton won 6 of the other 8 precincts, with the other two being ties.  I have no clue how populated those two precincts are, though.

[Adam Griffin]

Yeah, take the luck element out of it and it's a tie. It doesn't really matter anyway: the Clinton campaign isn't going to be able to brag about IA by saying "we're defied expectations because we won by 3 delegates out of 1700 / we won by 0.2 points in a 2-person race!".

[/]

What color will Iowa be on the map?

That's all I care about.

[Broken System]

Polk precincts most likely Sanders.
Fremont precinct could go either way.
Boone precinct most likely Sanders.
Iowa county precinct could go either way.
Tama precinct could go either way.
One Black Hawk precinct is most likely Sanders, the other is most likely Clinton.
Muscatine precinct could go either way.
Kossuth precinct most likely Clinton.
Hancock precincts most likely Clinton.

[Crumpets]

One of Sanders' delegates just disappeared...

Probably from the precinct being disputed.

Do we know who is disputing it and why?

If it was resolved that quickly, it was almost definitely a clerical error that they were able to correct on the spot. Probably not voter fraud or anything interesting like that.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Can someone explain how this is a victory for Sanders? Not to be a hack, but I seriously don't get it. Yes, he did far better than anyone thought he would do early in the year and overcame an initial massive deficit. But that's all old news and has already been factored into the equation for ages. Him possibly winning Iowa was seen as a distinct possibility for months now. It's one of his top 5 most demographically friendly states...and he could only manage a tie.

All the media spin just uses "he's a REAL threat to Clinton now!" as justification, but again, we've already known for ages he had a decent shot to win Iowa.

BINGO!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

we've already known for ages he had a decent shot to win Iowa.

Says the guy with an inevitable signature.

[Pyro]

Can someone explain how this is a victory for Sanders? Not to be a hack, but I seriously don't get it. Yes, he did far better than anyone thought he would do early in the year and overcame an initial massive deficit. But that's all old news and has already been factored into the equation for ages. Him possibly winning Iowa was seen as a distinct possibility for months now. It's one of his top 5 most demographically friendly states...and he could only manage a tie.

All the media spin just uses "he's a REAL threat to Clinton now!" as justification, but again, we've already known for ages he had a decent shot to win Iowa.

It's pretty much just proof that Bernie can have a decent showing and that Clinton may not be invincible. You're right, and Sanders should have performed stronger than he did. The fact that he did better with the 'under 30s' than Obama did in '08 is pretty big imo.

[Adam Griffin]

Can someone explain how this is a victory for Sanders?

Because the media isn't declaring it a victory for Clinton. Furthermore, the horse-race narrative continues and it will only strengthen Sanders in the short-term, as well as fuel his fundraising even more. This gives him the ability to do much better in the coming weeks in states where he would otherwise do abysmally and to absolutely carpet-bomb the South/West with paid media (that will work nicely in conjunction with the earned media) and that will raise name-recognition and encourage more voters to support/get to know him.

[IceSpear]

we've already known for ages he had a decent shot to win Iowa.

Says the guy with an inevitable signature.

?

I never saw an Iowa win as crucial to her inevitability (though it would've been nice.) What makes her inevitable is her enormous support among minorities, huge advantage among superdelegates, a highly favorable primary calendar after NH, and an Obama endorsement trump card that she almost certainly has to play at the opportune moment if needed. None of these things have anything to do with Iowa. Inevitability doesn't mean you have to win 50 states or even win easily. It just means you're inevitably winning.

[Panhandle Progressive]

we've already known for ages he had a decent shot to win Iowa.

Says the guy with an inevitable signature.

?

I never saw an Iowa win as crucial to her inevitability (though it would've been nice.) What makes her inevitable is her enormous support among minorities, huge advantage among superdelegates, a highly favorable primary calendar after NH, and an Obama endorsement trump card that she almost certainly has to play at the opportune moment if needed. None of these things have anything to do with Iowa. Inevitability doesn't mean you have to win 50 states or even win easily. It just means you're inevitably winning.

JACKPOT!

[Broken System]

One Hancock County precinct goes to Clinton. 11 precincts to go.

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like Clinton won more of the Obama '08 counties while Sanders won more of the Clinton '08 counties:

[exopolitician]

Sanders beat the expectations game, when everyone said he didn't have a chance and Clinton was expected to run away with this. She was up 20+ points, and Sanders was able to chip away at her lead to a virtual tie. Even with a better ground game and more cash on hand, she still couldn't run away with this. Bernie has the momentum, face the facts.

[cinyc]

One Hancock County precinct goes to Clinton. 11 precincts to go.

Looking at the precinct-level map, I think that precinct (Precinct 10) was a tie.