Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)

[Volrath50]

Looks like Clinton won more of the Obama '08 counties while Sanders won more of the Clinton '08 counties:

I'm going to guess that somehow this is because of John Edwards. I have no idea how, and I'm too tired to think of a plausible way, but something something.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Sanders beat the expectations game, when everyone said he didn't have a chance and Clinton was expected to run away with this. She was up 20+ points, and Sanders was able to chip away at her lead to a virtual tie. Even with a better ground game and more cash on hand, she still couldn't run away with this. Bernie has the momentum, face the facts.

Explain to me where Bernie wins on Super Tuesday and beyond then. Vermont and ?

[gf20202]

Dangerous assumption I realize, but I doubt the Clinton would be declaring victory at 2 AM if they didn't have exact numbers from those precincts already. Dicey to lie directly to the media (as opposed to what they pulled five hours ago which was a bad strategic gambit obviously.) If they say they won by two real delegates, I tend to believe them.

[Broken System]

Fremont County - Riverton
Polk County - Des Moines 15
Polk County - Des Moines 42
Boone County - Rural Precinct 1
Iowa County - Fillmore/Greene
Tama County - Indian Settlement
Muscatine County - Fruitland One-City
Black Hawk County - WL 3-2
Black Hawk County - WL 5-1
Hancock County - Precinct 5
Kossuth County - CR 1

[Crumpets]

Sanders beat the expectations game, when everyone said he didn't have a chance and Clinton was expected to run away with this. She was up 20+ points, and Sanders was able to chip away at her lead to a virtual tie. Even with a better ground game and more cash on hand, she still couldn't run away with this. Bernie has the momentum, face the facts.

I always forget the DNC's rule that the candidate who beat expectations the most wins an extra 500 delegates at the convention.

[Adam Griffin]

Looks like Clinton won more of the Obama '08 counties while Sanders won more of the Clinton '08 counties:

This has been my general theory about how the primary will play out - especially in the South. Sanders' strongest counties in many states will be where Clinton was strongest in 2008, and Clinton's strongest counties will be where Obama was strongest in 2008. Obviously (outside of states like IA & NH that are 90%+ white), this will be due to race.

[Boston Bread]

Among whites, Bernie is the beer track and Clinton the wine track candidate now.

[exopolitician]

Sanders beat the expectations game, when everyone said he didn't have a chance and Clinton was expected to run away with this. She was up 20+ points, and Sanders was able to chip away at her lead to a virtual tie. Even with a better ground game and more cash on hand, she still couldn't run away with this. Bernie has the momentum, face the facts.

Explain to me where Bernie wins on Super Tuesday and beyond then. Vermont and ?

Depends on how well he does in NH and then on from Nevada. Anything can happen.

[IceSpear]

Can someone explain how this is a victory for Sanders?

Because the media isn't declaring it a victory for Clinton. Furthermore, the horse-race narrative continues and it will only strengthen Sanders in the short-term, as well as fuel his fundraising even more. This gives him the ability to do much better in the coming weeks in states where he would otherwise do abysmally and to absolutely carpet-bomb the South/West with paid media (that will work nicely in conjunction with the earned media) and that will raise name-recognition and encourage more voters to support/get to know him.

Fair enough. I guess this is the difference between media spinners and serious analysts. Those who actually delve into the data see very clearly that a hypothetical Sanders route to victory started with a solid win in Iowa.

[Asian Nazi]

Just because Sanders still unlikely to win the nomination doesn't mean that this isn't a HUGE coup for him.  Obviously an outright victory would've been even bigger, but a tie keeps the money/media attention flowing and this will only be exacerbated when he (in all likelihood) wins NH.  Sanders' campaign, and the amount of influence he'll have on the nomination process, are directly proportional to the amount of buzz and resources to generate along the way.  He did exactly what he needed to do to keep young voters enthused and turning out in the run-up to Super Tuesday.

[Mr. Morden]

Among whites, Bernie is the beer track and Clinton the wine track candidate now.

Yep.  This is a switch from several months ago, when Sanders was getting more support among upper income whites.  In the entrance poll tonight, he won lower income voters while Clinton won upper income voters.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Sanders beat the expectations game, when everyone said he didn't have a chance and Clinton was expected to run away with this. She was up 20+ points, and Sanders was able to chip away at her lead to a virtual tie. Even with a better ground game and more cash on hand, she still couldn't run away with this. Bernie has the momentum, face the facts.

Explain to me where Bernie wins on Super Tuesday and beyond then. Vermont and ?

Depends on how well he does in NH and then on from Nevada. Anything can happen.

You're deluded.

[cinyc]

Fremont County - Riverton
Polk County - Des Moines 15
Polk County - Des Moines 42
Boone County - Rural Precinct 1
Iowa County - Fillmore/Greene
Tama County - Indian Settlement
Muscatine County - Fruitland One-City
Black Hawk County - WL 3-2
Black Hawk County - WL 5-1
Hancock County - Precinct 5
Kossuth County - CR 1

Indian Settlement should be interesting.  It's the Mesquakie Indian Settlement, home to Meskwaki Indians of the Fox and Sac tribe.

[IceSpear]

Sanders beat the expectations game, when everyone said he didn't have a chance and Clinton was expected to run away with this. She was up 20+ points, and Sanders was able to chip away at her lead to a virtual tie. Even with a better ground game and more cash on hand, she still couldn't run away with this. Bernie has the momentum, face the facts.

Who said this? Nearly every media outlet reported the DMR poll as a statistical tie, and at most said Hillary was a (very) modest favorite.

[Stockdale for Veep]

What were the stats for Hillary voters that snubbed Obama in the general? I see Sanders' college voters going well over that number.

[Asian Nazi]

Yep.  This is a switch from several months ago, when Sanders was getting more support among upper income whites.  In the entrance poll tonight, he won lower income voters while Clinton won upper income voters.

But the generational gap seems to have surpassed anything else.  Sanders seems to have maxed out with under-30's.  If he's going to win, he has to start improving his numbers with older voters.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Current delegate count update - 2382 needed to be the nominee:

Clinton: 409

Sanders: 34

Includes totals from Iowa tonight.

http://www.cnn.com/election

Clinton is already 17% of the way to capturing the nomination.

[Boston Bread]

The under 30s may be maxed out margin wise but not turnout wise. I think turning more of them out is easier than convincing voters already intending to vote Clinton.

[Asian Nazi]

The under 30s may be maxed out margin wise but not turnout wise. I think turning more of them out is easier than convincing voters already intending to vote Clinton.

This is fair and I can agree. 

[Adam Griffin]

So did Polk County surprise or shock anyone else? Granted, I don't know a lot about the Greater Des Moines area and whether or not there are tons of suburban communities in the county, but I would have thought Sanders would have won by around the same amount that Clinton won.

[Landslide Lyndon]

What were the stats for Hillary voters that snubbed Obama in the general? I see Sanders' college voters going well over that number.

LOL, keep dreaming. 2008 primary was way more brutal than this year's.  

[Boston Bread]

So did Polk County surprise or shock anyone else? Granted, I don't know a lot about the Greater Des Moines area and whether or not there are tons of suburban communities in the county, but I would have thought Sanders would have won by around the same amount that Clinton won.

I also thought urban areas would be stronger for Sanders as well. Des Moines and the northeast were disappointing.

[Lyin' Steve]

lol at all the frustrated, delusional Bernie assholes trying to pretend Bernie beat expectations and never had a chance in Iowa.
CNN had Bernie up 9 in Iowa, and the polls have been MOE for the last month.
Just 12 hours ago these kids were saying Bernie was going to easily win because of the enthusiasm gap.  Now they hope we've all forgotten.  Steve McQueen remembers.

[Crumpets]

What were the stats for Hillary voters that snubbed Obama in the general? I see Sanders' college voters going well over that number.

LOL, keep dreaming. 2008 primary was way more brutal than this year's.  

The dynamic is a bit different though with the more moderate candidate being favored to win this time. Bitter Clinton supporters defected to McCain (see Arkansas), while Bitter Sanders supporters would either vote Stein, or abstain, with maybe a few going to Trump if he makes the general. I can't say how that would change the results, but it wouldn't be exactly the same.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

lol at all the frustrated, delusional Bernie assholes trying to pretend Bernie beat expectations and never had a chance in Iowa.
CNN had Bernie up 9 in Iowa, and the polls have been MOE for the last month.
Just 12 hours ago these kids were saying Bernie was going to easily win because of the enthusiasm gap.  Now they hope we've all forgotten.  Steve McQueen remembers.

Nope, and it looks like she won just because she got lucky with coin flips.