Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)
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Author Topic: Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)  (Read 60004 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #125 on: February 01, 2016, 08:23:36 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 01, 2016, 08:22:19 PM
The people that are now coming in are looking good for the Bernie camp.

I'm pretty sure that the entrance poll is off by a lot ...

Not sure it can be off that much.  51-42 is hard to overcome.  
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #126 on: February 01, 2016, 08:24:11 PM »
Quote from: Fusionmunster on February 01, 2016, 08:23:17 PM
CBS entrance poll
First time caucus goers for the dems:

59% for Sanders
39% for Clinton


Actually that's pretty decent for Clinton.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #127 on: February 01, 2016, 08:24:20 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 01, 2016, 08:22:19 PM
The people that are now coming in are looking good for the Bernie camp.

I'm pretty sure that the entrance poll is off by a lot ...

Those wacky kids!  Always runnin late n junk!
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xingkerui
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« Reply #128 on: February 01, 2016, 08:24:32 PM »
Quote from: jaichind on February 01, 2016, 08:23:36 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 01, 2016, 08:22:19 PM
The people that are now coming in are looking good for the Bernie camp.

I'm pretty sure that the entrance poll is off by a lot ...

Not sure it can be off that much.  51-42 is hard to overcome.  

x2
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #129 on: February 01, 2016, 08:24:51 PM »
I'm basically just hoping that Sanders doesn't lose by that much now.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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« Reply #130 on: February 01, 2016, 08:25:04 PM »
EDIT: Wrong Thread.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #131 on: February 01, 2016, 08:26:17 PM »
Quote from: Fusionmunster on February 01, 2016, 08:23:17 PM
CBS entrance poll
First time caucus goers for the dems:

59% for Sanders
39% for Clinton


That's a terrible number for Sanders, no shade... but....
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #132 on: February 01, 2016, 08:27:05 PM »
If anything, I would expect Sanders to be helped by a lower turnout, not a higher one, because his supporters are the most passionate.  

Any ideas how the Alley Cats will break if O'Malley doesn't make the threshold tonight?
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #133 on: February 01, 2016, 08:27:17 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on February 01, 2016, 08:26:09 PM
Sanders is probably going to lose NH, too.

He's leading by over 10 points there, he should at least narrowly squeak out a victory there.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #134 on: February 01, 2016, 08:27:27 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on February 01, 2016, 08:26:09 PM
Sanders is probably going to lose NH, too.
Not likely.  He has a bit of a favorite son effect there since he's from Vermont.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #135 on: February 01, 2016, 08:27:35 PM »
Some of the last polling did show Sanders in the range of about 42%, so that entrance poll is probably not that off.
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NeverAgain
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« Reply #136 on: February 01, 2016, 08:27:41 PM »
They said that 20% of Dem voters are undecided in the entrance polls.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #137 on: February 01, 2016, 08:27:48 PM »
Quote from: Representative Carpetbagger on February 01, 2016, 08:27:17 PM
Quote from: TN volunteer on February 01, 2016, 08:26:09 PM
Sanders is probably going to lose NH, too.

He's leading by over 10 points there, he should at least narrowly squeak out a victory there.
So was Obama in before the 2008 primary.
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Blair
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« Reply #138 on: February 01, 2016, 08:28:11 PM »
So the 2008 caucus entrance polls for the democrats were right?

As has been said so many times, it's all about ground game. Hillary has build up a massive operation
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #139 on: February 01, 2016, 08:29:21 PM »
Wolf Blitzer just said this is an entrance poll of "early people".

They will likely revise it later to account for late-entering people.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #140 on: February 01, 2016, 08:31:38 PM »
Quote from: Governor Blair on February 01, 2016, 08:28:11 PM
So the 2008 caucus entrance polls for the democrats were right?

As has been said so many times, it's all about ground game. Hillary has build up a massive operation

As said, Hillary has the Obama machine behind her... so that's not a surprise.
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jaichind
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« Reply #141 on: February 01, 2016, 08:32:09 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 01, 2016, 08:29:21 PM
Wolf Blitzer just said this is an entrance poll of "early people".

They will likely revise it later to account for late-entering people.

Yeah, but it would be a wild statistical anomaly to overturn 51-42.  It is possible if not very likely that Sanders might pull off a narrow defeat by pulling in undecided and O'Malley voters  
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #142 on: February 01, 2016, 08:32:17 PM »
Quote from: Governor Blair on February 01, 2016, 08:28:11 PM
So the 2008 caucus entrance polls for the democrats were right?

As has been said so many times, it's all about ground game. Hillary has build up a massive operation
If that holds this year (and it well may not, given the nature of Trump Chumps and Sandernistas), then that should help Cruz on the GOP side.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #143 on: February 01, 2016, 08:32:55 PM »
For some reason CBS is labeling this as "Likely Sanders"

lol
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #144 on: February 01, 2016, 08:33:51 PM »
Quote from: ͡◔ ᴥ ͡◔ on February 01, 2016, 08:32:55 PM
For some reason CBS is labeling this as "Likely Sanders"

lol

Whatttt
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #145 on: February 01, 2016, 08:34:05 PM »
CNN new Entrance -

Clinton 50
Sanders 44
O'Malley 3
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xingkerui
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« Reply #146 on: February 01, 2016, 08:34:47 PM »
We can't be sure how accurate the entrance polls were until we have all the results, so let's not assume that they're accurate/inaccurate based purely on what we want to happen.
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Wells
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« Reply #147 on: February 01, 2016, 08:35:02 PM »
Quote from: ͡◔ ᴥ ͡◔ on February 01, 2016, 08:32:55 PM
For some reason CBS is labeling this as "Likely Sanders"

lol
Oh my god. They're giving me false hope.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #148 on: February 01, 2016, 08:35:15 PM »
MSNBC just revised its entrance polls for first-time voters and are now saying it's 44% on the Dem side.

17-29 year-olds: 17% of caucus-goers - was 20%(?) in 2008. I didn't catch the final number on the 2008 figure because my stupid stream glitched out.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #149 on: February 01, 2016, 08:35:45 PM »
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