Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)

[Sorenroy]

Uncommitted secures 1 delegate. http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2016/by_state/IA_Page_0201.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[Landslide Lyndon]

Wow, I didn't expect such a photo finish! Even if Hillary pulls this out (my gut says she just squeaks by), it's hard to call this a bad result for the Bern.

Actually it is very bad for Bernie. Iowa is his third most friendly demographic state so if he can't win there he has little chance winning anywhere else outside of Vermont/N.H.

That's an exaggeration, but even so, he overperformed expectations, and did what people until recently thought was unthinkable: He pulled even with Hillary.

Nope, according to Nate Silver only Vermont and New Hampshire are more demographically friendly to Sanders than Iowa.

[Sorenroy]

Big numbers have just come in (not sure from where). With 77% reporting, the margin has shrunk to 1.351%.

Edit: With 78% in it has shrunk to a 1.24 lead. First time Sanders actually hits 49% (unrounded) and Clinton down below 51% rounded.

Edit Two: With 81% in it has shrunk to a 1.188 lead.

[RJEvans]

Wow, I didn't expect such a photo finish! Even if Hillary pulls this out (my gut says she just squeaks by), it's hard to call this a bad result for the Bern.

Actually it is very bad for Bernie. Iowa is his third most friendly demographic state so if he can't win there he has little chance winning anywhere else outside of Vermont/N.H.

The thing is this is close enough for the media to spin this as a "ZOMG Sanders almost won he's gaining on Clinton she's collapsing!!!111!!"

I agree, the media will spin this as Berniementum and Clinton is in trouble. Couple this with his 10-point+ win in NH and this race becomes very competitive going into NV and maybe even SC and super Tuesday.

[Asian Nazi]

The thing is this is close enough for the media to spin this as a "ZOMG Sanders almost won he's gaining on Clinton she's collapsing!!!111!!"

Well duh the media wants a contest.  Whether he actually manages to catch her in Iowa or not, he's done well enough where it'll seem like a two-way race until Super Tuesday.

[tmthforu94]

Des Moines Precinct 70 was tied, 61-61, and was decided by a coin flip. Went for Hillary. Every vote matters!

[exopolitician]

Considering she was leading by over 20 points at the beginning, the outcome being almost tied is a pretty big deal.

[jaichind]

One way or another what Sanders did tonight is to make himself a viable alternative to be the nominee in case something happens to Clinton, say on the email front.

[/]

Des Moines Precinct 70 was tied, 61-61, and was decided by a coin flip. Went for Hillary. Every vote matters!

biased coin

[Eraserhead]

MSNBC seems high on Bernie's chances. Idk.

[This account no longer in use.]

Des Moines Precinct 70 was tied, 61-61, and was decided by a coin flip. Went for Hillary. Every vote matters!

biased coin

That coin was a filthy Wall Street billionayuh oligarchy lover.

[This account no longer in use.]

Clinton lead down to 1.0%.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Hillary's lead is down to 12.

[/]

Clinton lead down to 1.0%.

ughhhh

[Adam Griffin]

[/]

20% of the precincts left for Bernie to gain .5% of the vote.

So close...

[This account no longer in use.]

20% of the precincts left for Bernie to gain .5% of the vote.

So close...

For what it's worth, Sanders is leading in most of the big counties other than Polk.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Uncommitted secures 1 delegate. http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2016/by_state/IA_Page_0201.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Probably a lone bitter O'Malley fan lol.

[Illiniwek]

20% of the precincts left for Bernie to gain .5% of the vote.

So close...

It's going to happen.

[Xing]

Wow, I didn't expect such a photo finish! Even if Hillary pulls this out (my gut says she just squeaks by), it's hard to call this a bad result for the Bern.

Actually it is very bad for Bernie. Iowa is his third most friendly demographic state so if he can't win there he has little chance winning anywhere else outside of Vermont/N.H.

That's an exaggeration, but even so, he overperformed expectations, and did what people until recently thought was unthinkable: He pulled even with Hillary.

Nope, according to Nate Silver only Vermont and New Hampshire are more demographically friendly to Sanders than Iowa.

I didn't realize Nate Silver was always right, but whatever. The point is that the narrative will likely change after tonight. Clinton was supposed to be invulnerable, and while she's still definitely the favorite going ahead, very few people will act as if Sanders has no chance at all.

[Boston Bread]

Is Bernie willing the popular (non-delegate) vote? It was commonly believed that Sanders would be concentrated in cities which would lead to this happening, but I'm not seeing much of an urban-rural split here.

[Sorenroy]

Clinton's lead is down to less than 1% (0.984%) with 18% left to report.

Edit: 15% left to report, lead down to 0.768%.

[/]

Sanders .9% behind Hillary now...

[DrScholl]

You do not win by losing. Sanders needed to win Iowa, period. Clinton can go out there, fund raise and campaign based on winning the first state of primary cycle, which is good for momentum. Sanders will likely win New Hampshire, but that might be in peril now that Clinton can shift resources there. A lot of Clinton's resources shifted to Iowa, but now that it is over she can shift resources into New Hampshire.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is Bernie willing the popular (non-delegate) vote? It was commonly believed that Sanders would be concentrated in cities which would lead to this happening, but I'm not seeing much of an urban-rural split here.

No raw vote is released.

Clinton has 11 more state delegates at this point.