Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)

[jimrtex]

AP says Sanders is leading in Delegates (actual delegates) 19-18. Clinton still leads in precinct level delegates 568-557.

The 568-557 is the projected number of state delegates, based on the assumption that the county conventions will elect their state delegates in proportion to the county delegates chosen tonight. The county delegates are not bound, but presumably the delegates chosen tonight were vetted by the campaigns. I think the O'Malley and uncommitted will probably miss the thresholds, and won't actually elect any state delegates.

Most of the national delegates are actually allocated by congressional district (8, 8, 8, and 6), with 6 for the western CD. So a 5:3 split is at least a 56:44 majority (with rounding).

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Decatur County just became a tie.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Thank you Bernie for mentioning Climate Change. The only candidate to do so tonight.

Ermm Clinton mentioned it.

I thought "climate change" was something that people haven't really talked about in at least five years?  It just isn't a talking point any more (or maybe it's just that I have virtually zero contact in real life with liberals).

[Tender Branson]

Would it be possible that Sanders got 1 more delegate but Clinton 0.1% more ?

If so I wonder if I get my money from WilliamHill.com ...

[The Other Castro]

Sanders campaign says the Iowa Democratic Party informed them we will likely not have a result tonight.

[Holmes]

There's more precincts outstanding in Clinton counties than Sanders counties. Clinton probably squeaks by.

Thank you Bernie for mentioning Climate Change. The only candidate to do so tonight.

Clinton did.

[/]

Why is nobody talking about the voter fraud?

[Oakvale]

Why is nobody talking about the voter fraud?

 typical Bernie Bros

[Gass3268]

There's more precincts outstanding in Clinton counties than Sanders counties. Clinton probably squeaks by.

Probably, but there is a lot of Polk where Clinton is doing well, but there have been a lot of Bernie precincts there so we don't know how that will turnout.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Going to have to count on the African American community to destroy this menace to American society. Hope the south is as solid for Hillary as the polling looks.

[The Other Castro]

Why is nobody talking about the voter fraud?

 typical Bernie Bros

Lol imagine the outrage from the Clinton supporters if that video was about a Sanders precinct captain...

[/]

LOL O'Malley just got an eighth delegate

[Panhandle Progressive]

There's more precincts outstanding in Clinton counties than Sanders counties. Clinton probably squeaks by.

Probably, but there is a lot of Polk where Clinton is doing well, but there have been a lot of Bernie precincts there so we don't know how that will turnout.

We actually do.
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/694364051283927041

[Gass3268]

MSNBC is reporting that there will be no official results declared tonight from the Democratic Party. I'm off to bed.

[cinyc]

79 precincts left.

22 of those are in Polk County (Des Moines), which Clinton is winning, but not necessarily in areas that Clinton is winning.  The rest are scattered throughout the state.

[NeverAgain]

MSNBC is reporting that there will be no official results declared tonight from the Democratic Party. I'm off to bed.

[The Other Castro]

Welp good night folks.

[Gass3268]

There's more precincts outstanding in Clinton counties than Sanders counties. Clinton probably squeaks by.

Probably, but there is a lot of Polk where Clinton is doing well, but there have been a lot of Bernie precincts there so we don't know how that will turnout.

We actually do.
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/694364051283927041

I know that, most of the areas left are in Clinton counties. What we don't know is are the precincts in those counties Clinton precincts or Sanders precincts?

[Blair]

MSNBC is reporting that there will be no official results declared tonight from the Democratic Party. I'm off to bed.

[Smash255]

There's more precincts outstanding in Clinton counties than Sanders counties. Clinton probably squeaks by.

Probably, but there is a lot of Polk where Clinton is doing well, but there have been a lot of Bernie precincts there so we don't know how that will turnout.

We actually do.
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/694364051283927041

Not really that goes by precincts left by results in which the county was leading.  Tht is easy enough to figure out.  The question, especially regarding Polk, is where in Polk are the remaining precincts?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

LOL, they did the same thing in the 2004 general election. "We're too close to call in a close election? Yawn. We're off to bed."

[cinyc]

Not really that goes by precincts left by results in which the county was leading.  Tht is easy enough to figure out.  The question, especially regarding Polk, is where in Polk are the remaining precincts?

https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/county/19153

It looks like about 12 of the 22 outstanding precincts are in Des Moines proper, 3 in Ankeny, 2 in West Des Moines, and the rest scattered in more rural/suburban areas.

[NeverAgain]

There's more precincts outstanding in Clinton counties than Sanders counties. Clinton probably squeaks by.

Probably, but there is a lot of Polk where Clinton is doing well, but there have been a lot of Bernie precincts there so we don't know how that will turnout.

We actually do.
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/694364051283927041

I know that, most of the areas left are in Clinton counties. What we don't know is are the precincts in those counties Clinton precincts or Sanders precincts?

Roughly 25% of the remaining caucuses are in Bernie territory, about 30% are in Polk, and the rest are scattered among Clinton regions. If Bernie wins a couple more in Polk, (which it looks like he could) he'll have a shot of winning. At this point, I have given up as this is "so close you could split a dime on it". My hope/prediction is that Bernie could squeak by with Polk support and his and her remaining caucuses. But it's just Iowa.

[Tender Branson]

If it ends 49.7 vs. 49.7 tomorrow, i really wonder if I get my 200€ win from WilliamHill.com ...

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Bernie Sanders has 666 delegates

It's interesting how they keep crawling up one by one; it's kept the margin at exactly three for a while.