Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)
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  Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)
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Author Topic: Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)  (Read 60201 times)
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #825 on: February 02, 2016, 03:38:59 AM »

1 precinct remaining - Polk County.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #826 on: February 02, 2016, 03:44:52 AM »

Hillary by 5, waiting on one precinct. Barring something drastic, it looks like she's won. And a win is a win.

Yay! Congrats Hilldawg! Finally a Clinton has won Iowa!

On a side note, Bernie's really going to be in trouble once we start getting to closed primaries. Even in Iowa, Hillary walloped him among registered Dems.

And Clinton has no chance of winning the general seeing people who get independents are the one's who win. Coupled up with Clinton's low approval rating & disconnect with the young, looks incredibly dark for her.

A moderate GOP Candidate is very likely to win against her.

Rubio will probably beat her if he's the nominee since the media hates her and is in the tank for him. But the same would be true if Bernie is the nominee. You really think they wouldn't give him the McGovern/Mondale/Dukakis treatment?
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #827 on: February 02, 2016, 03:49:56 AM »

Hillary by 5, waiting on one precinct. Barring something drastic, it looks like she's won. And a win is a win.

Yay! Congrats Hilldawg! Finally a Clinton has won Iowa!

On a side note, Bernie's really going to be in trouble once we start getting to closed primaries. Even in Iowa, Hillary walloped him among registered Dems.

This is a statistical tie. Nothing for Clinton to really celebrate.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #828 on: February 02, 2016, 03:50:16 AM »

Wasn't it floated days ago that 170k would be the tipping point? Apparently 170k was the turnout, and it was razor thin. Frighteningly accurate! Unless I'm just imagining the first thing.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #829 on: February 02, 2016, 03:50:21 AM »

Btw, on CNN about 10 minutes ago, they got a statement out of the Iowa Dem. Party, which basically said that even if the one remaining precinct goes 100% for Sanders, Clinton still wins (barely) in state delegate equivalents.
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cxs018
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« Reply #830 on: February 02, 2016, 03:50:31 AM »

Given the media's obsession with the communist who must not be named, they'll probably focus on the coin flips, focus on the Polk County counting incident and try to spin it so that $anders will be seen as the winner. Never mind the fact that all of those incidents were faked by the $anders campaign so that he would have an excuse for losing like the communist that he is. Honestly, when Hillary becomes president, I hope she bans all biased media.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #831 on: February 02, 2016, 04:01:03 AM »

A moderate GOP Candidate is very likely to win against her.

Santa Claus is very likely to beat her and about as possible to be the Republican nominee as a moderate GOPer.
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Holmes
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« Reply #832 on: February 02, 2016, 04:01:10 AM »

Sanders can't even win a state that's 95% white. It probably ended tonight but Sanders' money and win in New Hampshire will probably drag it until the middle of March.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #833 on: February 02, 2016, 04:03:55 AM »

Sanders can't even win a state that's 95% white. It probably ended tonight but Sanders' money and win in New Hampshire will probably drag it until the middle of March.

Yeah, along with the "HILLARY IN DANGER!" narrative. But honestly, that's probably how it was going to go regardless. The only way Sanders was going to drop out early would be if he lost NH, and that almost certainly wouldn't have happened even if Hillary won IA in a blowout.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #834 on: February 02, 2016, 04:10:05 AM »
« Edited: February 02, 2016, 04:13:25 AM by Landslide Lyndon »

Sanders can't even win a state that's 95% white. It probably ended tonight but Sanders' money and win in New Hampshire will probably drag it until the middle of March.

I don't think that's a bad thing. After almost 8 years away from elective politics Clinton is probably a bit creaky. A couple of months of hard campaigning against a feisty sparring partner can't do any harm to her and the party.

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #835 on: February 02, 2016, 04:16:15 AM »

The networks have deemed Clinton the "apparent winner" instead of the "projected winner" like Cruz is.
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cxs018
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« Reply #836 on: February 02, 2016, 04:17:02 AM »

The networks have deemed Clinton the "apparent winner" instead of the "projected winner" like Cruz is.

Just goes to show the media bias against her. Any news network with any bias should be banned. The end.
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Holmes
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« Reply #837 on: February 02, 2016, 04:18:13 AM »

Sanders can't even win a state that's 95% white. It probably ended tonight but Sanders' money and win in New Hampshire will probably drag it until the middle of March.

Yeah, along with the "HILLARY IN DANGER!" narrative. But honestly, that's probably how it was going to go regardless. The only way Sanders was going to drop out early would be if he lost NH, and that almost certainly wouldn't have happened even if Hillary won IA in a blowout.

You're probably right. And it does help Democrats get a head start in organizing for the general in more states than just Iowa and New Hampshire, just like in 08.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #838 on: February 02, 2016, 04:35:43 AM »


I wonder if winning 5 out of 5 coin flips is statistically significant?  Jfern?
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DS0816
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« Reply #839 on: February 02, 2016, 04:40:58 AM »

For those who followed the polls from way back when … is it true that Hillary Clinton used to lead Bernie Sanders in Iowa by more than 20 percentage points?

If that is accurate … what do you think happened?
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jfern
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« Reply #840 on: February 02, 2016, 04:43:20 AM »

For those who followed the polls from way back when … is it true that Hillary Clinton used to lead Bernie Sanders in Iowa by more than 20 percentage points?

If that is accurate … what do you think happened?

PPP had Hillary up 62-14 over Bernie in April. Bernie happened.
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jfern
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« Reply #841 on: February 02, 2016, 04:44:19 AM »


It was 6 out of 7, and while she definitely got lucky, no.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #842 on: February 02, 2016, 04:45:18 AM »


It's a conspiracy. DWS gave rigged coins to the precinct captains.
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jfern
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« Reply #843 on: February 02, 2016, 04:55:09 AM »

Well, Hillary narrowly wins thanks to her coin tosses. But, LOL, they use fraction state delegates. Here's the current count.

Clinton 699.57
Sanders 695.49
O'Malley 7.68
Uncommited 0.46
That last precinct 2.28

http://iowademocrats.org/statement-from-idp-chair-on-tonights-historically-close-caucus-results/#more-14967
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jimrtex
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« Reply #844 on: February 02, 2016, 05:00:48 AM »

Are there exact precinct results available anywhere?  Or will there be?

https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state

Click on a county to get a precinct-level result map of that county.

It's just a percentage in each precinct.  This isn't the most useful, though I may be able to reverse engineer some results with some effort.
The precinct results are the percentages of delegates to the county convention.  You will notice that the percentages are the decimal equivalent of small integer ratios (eg 2/7 equal 28.6%). One problem is that a lot of precincts are 50%:50%, which means that they could be 1:1, 2:2, 3:3, ... etc. Somewhere there must be the number of delegates per precinct, but I haven't come across it.

The allocation is proportional to the Obama+Hatch results in the 2012 and 2014 elections. So you should be able to figure it out (the Iowa SOS does have precinct level results).

But the popular vote is much higher. For example, the Des Moines precinct that was shown on NPR had a popular vote count of 232:224, with 3 persons missing. But there were only 9 delegates awarded (5:4). So the precinct will be reported as 55.6% for Clinton, even though the popular vote was 50.9% Clinton.

2008 ratio of caucus attendees to state delegate

State delegates per county - 2016

Democratic results

It appears that the ratio of the Obama+Hatch popular vote to county delegates is not constant across counties.

For example:

Taylor 1789 Obama+Hatch :: 30 county delegates
Ringgold 1738 Obama+Hatch :: 80 county delegates
Decatur 2559 Obama+Hatch :: 70 county delegates

But for precincts within a county, the ratio of Obama+Hatch :: county delegates is a constant.

So for example in Taylor the quota is 1789/30 = 59.63

And by precinct:

Blockton 92/Q = 2 (rounded), Clinton 2, Sanders 0
Bedford 403/Q = 7, Clinton 5, Sanders 2
Clearfield 161/Q = 3, Clinton 3, Sanders 0
Gravity 127/Q = 2, Clinton 1, Sanders 1
Legion 183/Q = 3, Clinton 2, Sanders 1
Lenox 649/Q = 11, Clinton 7, Sanders 4
New Market 174/Q = 3, Clinton 2, Sanders 1

Total: 1789/Q = 30, Clinton 21, Sanders 9

Clinton is shown as receiving 70% of the vote in Taylor. That may be roughly correct, subject to rounding in each precinct, and assuming attendance per delegate was constant across precincts.

Taylor County will elect 2 delegates to the state convention. I think a 21:9 split will come out 1.4 : 0.6, and Sanders will get the favorable rounding, so that in the state totals, Taylor will be reported as 1 each.

A similar occurrence happens in Ringgold where a 53:27 Clinton majority at the county convention will produce a 1:1 split at the state convention.

But in Decatur. a 35:33:1:1 split may produce a 2:1 split at the state convention since Decatur has 3 state delegates (O'Malley and Uncommitted each have one county delegate). There could be some serious courting of those two delegates.

Since the highest number of attendees per state delegate has usually been in Johnson County (Iowa City and University of Iowa), I suspect that Sanders actually had a popular vote plurality. Likely not a majority since O'Malley was probably getting squeezed everywhere.

Because the size of the county convention varies, and is not proportional to the Obama+Hatch popular vote, it would be meaningless to produce statewide totals. I suspect that county conventions in larger counties are smaller in a relative sense. The Obama+Hatch popular vote in Polk was 116.44 x that in Ringgold. If the size of the county conventions was proportional, then Ringgold would have 80 county delegates, and Polk would 9300 county delegates.

Note that Polk does have 228 state delegates which is 114 x that of Ringgold.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #845 on: February 02, 2016, 05:05:01 AM »

Both MSNBC and FiveThirtyEight said the coin flips weren't for state delegate equivalents (i.e. the vote totals.) This is too complicated.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #846 on: February 02, 2016, 05:31:26 AM »


3.13% just in case you're actually curious, but I'm unsure whether such odds would technically apply considering it was five separate coins each being flipped once and not one coin being flipped five times. Wink
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« Reply #847 on: February 02, 2016, 06:54:07 AM »

What a glorious night! A narrow victory is even better than a blowout because it makes the Bernie Bro thugs even madder Smiley
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #848 on: February 02, 2016, 06:55:24 AM »

Congratulations to Hillary Clinton, the first ever woman to win the Iowa caucuses! She was heavily outspent by Sanders and his Super PAC supporters, but in the end she pulled it out! Smiley
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #849 on: February 02, 2016, 07:02:32 AM »

Congratulations to coin tosses, the real winner of the Iowa caucuses.
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