Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)

[Lief 🗽]

Congratulations to coin tosses, the real winner of the Iowa caucuses.

No, Clinton would have still won even if Bernie won all the coin tosses.

[jaichind]

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/02/bernie-sanders-requests-vote-count-tight-finish-iowa-caucus-clinton?CMP=twt_gu

Bernie Sanders wants raw vote count released after tight finish in Iowa caucuses

[Landslide Lyndon]

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/02/bernie-sanders-requests-vote-count-tight-finish-iowa-caucus-clinton?CMP=twt_gu

Bernie Sanders wants raw vote count released after tight finish in Iowa caucuses

Pitiful. The socialist codger from Vermont shows once again that he is a sore loser who has no idea how the Democratic party works and cares only for his ego.

[Flake]

Awful that Hillary's campaign was caught basically committing voter fraud on live television. Really shows where the Clinton campaign is.

[Vern]

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/02/bernie-sanders-requests-vote-count-tight-finish-iowa-caucus-clinton?CMP=twt_gu

Bernie Sanders wants raw vote count released after tight finish in Iowa caucuses

Pitiful. The socialist codger from Vermont shows once again that he is a sore loser who has no idea how the Democratic party works and cares only for his ego.

It would be interesting to see the raw vote, IMO.

[pho]

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/02/bernie-sanders-requests-vote-count-tight-finish-iowa-caucus-clinton?CMP=twt_gu

Bernie Sanders wants raw vote count released after tight finish in Iowa caucuses

DWS will detonate a nuclear weapon in Des Moines before she lets the IDP release the raw vote totals. No chance of that happening (My guess is Bernie won the popular vote around 50-49)

[BM]

Play the rules and stop trying to steal the election, Bernie

[jaichind]

At glance at the raw vote results indicates to me the Clinton most likely won the popular vote as well so I am not sure what Sanders is trying to do by pushing to release the raw vote count.  He is better off talking about the near tie in terms of delegates and all the coin tosses.

[7,052,770]

If Bernie had barely won, but the media were portraying it as a tie, Bernie supporters would be shrieking right now. But since the tables are turned, it's all cool.

No worries. If Sanders can't win in his 3rd most favorable state demographically, it looks like all those people who predicted Hillary would win more than 45 states were right. Hillary didn't HAVE to win tonight and she did anyway.

[The Other Castro]

I'm using all the Hillary salt on my french fries right now. It tastes great.

[DS0816]

For those who followed the polls from way back when … is it true that Hillary Clinton used to lead Bernie Sanders in Iowa by more than 20 percentage points?

If that is accurate … what do you think happened?

PPP had Hillary up 62-14 over Bernie in April. Bernie happened.

So, Hillary Clinton lost a 48-point lead!

That says something.

[Hnv1]

A. Clinton's crew here are really...militant
B. do we have a map of Iowa with results already?

[Bojack Horseman]

Well now it's onto New Hampshire. While I think Sanders will win New Hampshire, it's much like Iowa: his viability going forward depends on his margin of victory. If Clinton runs a close race (Sanders is polling 61%), Sanders is finished.

[Hydera]

Went from one to two precincts yet to be counted. Anybody know when the results for those are going to be finally counted?

[jimrtex]

AP says there are 1681 precincts, but Microsoft has it at 1683 precincts.

There are a couple of extra non-geographical caucuses for people who are out of state, particularly military. There is some sort of way to register to participate.

Since Microsoft is working with the parties, they may have taken that into account. The AP may just be set up to use conventional precincts.

[jimrtex]

lol at all the frustrated, delusional Bernie assholes trying to pretend Bernie beat expectations and never had a chance in Iowa.
CNN had Bernie up 9 in Iowa, and the polls have been MOE for the last month.
Just 12 hours ago these kids were saying Bernie was going to easily win because of the enthusiasm gap.  Now they hope we've all forgotten.  Steve McQueen remembers.

Nope, and it looks like she won just because she got lucky with coin flips.

"THE COINS WERE RIGGED!  CHECK THEM OUT - THEY HAD HEADS ON BOTH SIDES!!!"

How did the Sanders people want a dead-tie precinct to be decided?
If they just handed it to Sanders the count would be 695-693 Clinton.

That's ok.  Clinton people have a president.  Bernie people have a childish little sob story about how the election was stolen from them by a coin flip that they can annoy people with for the next few months.

Except the coin flips weren't deciding delegates to the state conventions, they were deciding delegates to county conventions.

The rural counties that I looked at had 10s of county delegates, who would choose two or three state delegates. It is quite improbable that a county delegate will change the distribution of the state delegates. In the more populous counties, the ratio of county delegates to state delegates will be lower, so a particularly propitious lucky coin flip may have changed a delegate.

[Shadows]

Turnout was too low IMO but Bernie performed much better than expected among young voters & decent among independents. The numbers among young people are unreal good. Not much of a loss among women too, considering what opinion polls showed.

We need a high turnout not this moderate one's. This would have been a sweep for Bernie if we had a Obama level turnaround. . Hillary is in this for 1 year, with millions of Wall Street Money, the media & huge name recognition. Bernie needs to build a strong ground game & ensure/push for a very high turnout otherwise it will get very difficult.

You can't expect 85% of under 30 vote in each state - that's unrealistic IMO!

[NeverAgain]

The hackery here is stunning. This was a statistical tie fair and square with the final results showing Bernie just a few delegates behind her in the last minutes. I give credit to Hillary and her campaign for getting out her vote, but Bernie really was the real star here. He really did something amazing and the fact that it was this close just shows how exciting the race is to Democrats at least so far.

[jimrtex]

At glance at the raw vote results indicates to me the Clinton most likely won the popular vote as well so I am not sure what Sanders is trying to do by pushing to release the raw vote count.  He is better off talking about the near tie in terms of delegates and all the coin tosses.

Popular vote is translated into county delegates on a precinct by precinct basis. The county delegates are then translated into state delegates. This is an estimate, and assumes that county delegates chosen by a group of Clinton supporters will support Clinton at the county convention.

In past caucuses, the ratio of popular vote to state delegates has been higher in more populous counties, and the highest has usually been in Johnson County (Iowa City and University of Iowa). And it is quite possible that the popular vote to county delegates is variable within a county.

A well-organized campaign would have someone at every precinct in the state, and would have reported the popular vote back to the party.

[Comrade Funk]

The hackery here is stunning. This was a statistical tie fair and square with the final results showing Bernie just a few delegates behind her in the last minutes. I give credit to Hillary and her campaign for getting out her vote, but Bernie really was the real star here. He really did something amazing and the fact that it was this close just shows how exciting the race is to Democrats at least so far.

[Panhandle Progressive]

The hackery here is stunning. This was a statistical tie fair and square with the final results showing Bernie just a few delegates behind her in the last minutes. I give credit to Hillary and her campaign for getting out her vote, but Bernie really was the real star here. He really did something amazing and the fact that it was this close just shows how exciting the race is to Democrats at least so far.

It will be dull starting on Super Tuesday and beyond. Because Bernie won't be competitive then.

[BM]

The hackery here is stunning. This was a statistical tie fair and square with the final results showing Bernie just a few delegates behind her in the last minutes. I give credit to Hillary and her campaign for getting out her vote, but Bernie really was the real star here. He really did something amazing and the fact that it was this close just shows how exciting the race is to Democrats at least so far.

Bernie needed the one-two punch of victories in IA/NH to build a media narrative and gain enough momentum to be competitive considering the calendar isn't favorable to him after that. He's only going to get one of them now that Hillary has beaten him back in Iowa and NH is practically his home state. It's not enough.

The excitement for the ancient small state socialist just isn't there. I guess he's going to be an irrelevant trivia question within a couple months after all of this hype.

[Panhandle Progressive]

The hackery here is stunning. This was a statistical tie fair and square with the final results showing Bernie just a few delegates behind her in the last minutes. I give credit to Hillary and her campaign for getting out her vote, but Bernie really was the real star here. He really did something amazing and the fact that it was this close just shows how exciting the race is to Democrats at least so far.

The excitement for the ancient small state socialist just isn't there. I guess he's going to be an irrelevant trivia question within a couple months after all of this hype.

Exactly right!

[RJEvans]

The hackery here is stunning. This was a statistical tie fair and square with the final results showing Bernie just a few delegates behind her in the last minutes. I give credit to Hillary and her campaign for getting out her vote, but Bernie really was the real star here. He really did something amazing and the fact that it was this close just shows how exciting the race is to Democrats at least so far.

It will be dull starting on Super Tuesday and beyond. Because Bernie won't be competitive then.

A month ago he wasn't competitive, but he has the movement, he has the money, he has the momentum. All he needs is the message. I think he can turn this around in his favor.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Awful that Hillary's campaign was caught basically committing voter fraud on live television. Really shows where the Clinton campaign is.

LOL, already with the sore loser conspiracy theories.