Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)
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  Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)
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Author Topic: Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)  (Read 59990 times)
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #950 on: February 02, 2016, 11:26:20 PM »

Democratic caucus by precinct

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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #951 on: February 03, 2016, 12:16:52 AM »

The black majority precincts on the northeast side of Waterloo, Black Hawk County also went heavily for Clinton.  Clinton won 100% of the delegates in one likely African American-majority precinct, and 70-80% of the delegates in two others.  So yes, there is evidence that African Americans broke heavily for Clinton in Iowa.

Are there any Hispanic-majority or Asian-majority precincts? Because the entrance polls said she won non-whites by only about 25%, but the results from black precincts obviously cast some doubt on those numbers.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #952 on: February 03, 2016, 12:43:28 AM »

Well, at least I got 2 points on my prediction map.

Yeah, but since the polls closed you had been telling us, Sanderistas, over and over again, that it was impossible for Sanders to overcome Clinton's initial 5-point margin over him.

I was pleasantly surprised by how the count unfolded, yeah. Glad I was wrong about that! Smiley
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shua
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« Reply #953 on: February 03, 2016, 01:23:53 AM »


Are these county delegates or SDEs?   Do you know why there are so many blank areas?
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Xing
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« Reply #954 on: February 03, 2016, 01:26:53 AM »

I, for one, am quite happy with the outcome of this race. A competitive contest draws attention and excitement to the Democratic side, which is exactly what we need if we don't want a President Cruz/Rubio/Trump.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #955 on: February 03, 2016, 01:38:19 AM »


Amazing work, but this really hurts my eyes.
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cinyc
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« Reply #956 on: February 03, 2016, 01:39:48 AM »
« Edited: February 03, 2016, 01:41:35 AM by cinyc »

Are there any Hispanic-majority or Asian-majority precincts? Because the entrance polls said she won non-whites by only about 25%, but the results from black precincts obviously cast some doubt on those numbers.

There are some Hispanic plurality and perhaps majority precincts in Des Moines and meat packing towns like Marshalltown, but I doubt they are majority Hispanic CVAP, let alone majority Hispanic by registered Democrats.  That's especially true in the meat packing towns, where many of the Hispanics are illegal aliens.

The precincts in east Marshalltown with a relatively high Hispanic population (for Iowa, anyway) went to Sanders, but I suspect Hispanic turnout was poor.  The precinct lines have changed since DRA's map, so I can't figure out exactly where the few Hispanic plurality precincts are in Des Moines, but they appear to be either a tie or maybe slight Clinton wins, depending on which precinct is the Hispanic one.

The majority-Asian precinct, Buchanan Township, Jefferson County, was a tie.  The Asians who live there are largely male Indians in their 20s, largely living in group quarters (i.e. dorms).  They likely attend the Maharishi University of Management, and are overwhelmingly foreigners who can't vote in U.S. elections.  So the precinct might not even be majority Asian CVAP.  There also is a precinct near the University of Iowa in Iowa City that is about 30% Asian. If I found the right precinct on both maps, it too was a tie.  Asians are far too dispersed throughout other precincts to make any meaningful analysis.
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