Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)

[jaichind]

CBS entrance poll:

Entrance poll results, Democrats: 60% want to see Obama policies continue; of those, 69% choosing Clinton; 25% choosing Sanders

[jaichind]

CBS News is already releasing some of the entrance poll #s:

https://twitter.com/CBSPolitics

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I guess Sanders is ahead like 90-9-1 with voters who do not want them to continue ...

If so that would give Clinton around 45%

[jaichind]

here are numbers from 2008 for comparisons
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/IA.html

All these exit polls/entrance polls are often adjusted afterwards to match the real results.  But I did recall that back in 2008 Obama did lead the entrance polls for Iowa.

[jaichind]

The people that are now coming in are looking good for the Bernie camp.

I'm pretty sure that the entrance poll is off by a lot ...

Not sure it can be off that much.  51-42 is hard to overcome.  

[jaichind]

Wolf Blitzer just said this is an entrance poll of "early people".

They will likely revise it later to account for late-entering people.

Yeah, but it would be a wild statistical anomaly to overturn 51-42.  It is possible if not very likely that Sanders might pull off a narrow defeat by pulling in undecided and O'Malley voters  

[jaichind]

Mitchell is 27% in and has Clinton up 65-35.  First sign that the entrance polls are accurate.

[jaichind]

Now CBS has Clinton 48-47 ?!?!

[jaichind]

Current CBS estimate is Clinton 49-46

[jaichind]

According to DKE Clinton is doing MUCH better in eastern Iowa where she was swamped back in 2008.

Sure, but she came in third in 2008.

[jaichind]

Current CBS estimate is Clinton 49-46

Is that the new entrance poll revision?

I think it is their estimate based on entrance poll plus real results.

[jaichind]

Current CBS estimate is Clinton 49-47.  Clinton does not seem to be able to shake off Sanders. 

[jaichind]

One way or another what Sanders did tonight is to make himself a viable alternative to be the nominee in case something happens to Clinton, say on the email front.

[jaichind]

I wonder how the media will define victory? Vote share or delegates ?  Because the winner of one might not be the winner or the other.

[jaichind]

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/02/bernie-sanders-requests-vote-count-tight-finish-iowa-caucus-clinton?CMP=twt_gu

Bernie Sanders wants raw vote count released after tight finish in Iowa caucuses

[jaichind]

At glance at the raw vote results indicates to me the Clinton most likely won the popular vote as well so I am not sure what Sanders is trying to do by pushing to release the raw vote count.  He is better off talking about the near tie in terms of delegates and all the coin tosses.

[jaichind]

According to the link on uselectionatlas It seems the raw votes are

Clinton     69,631
Sanders   69,319
O'Malley       758

So Clinton wins by around 300 votes.

[jaichind]

According to the link on uselectionatlas It seems the raw votes are

Clinton     69,631
Sanders   69,319
O'Malley       758

So Clinton wins by around 300 votes.

That's impossible, because the Iowa Democratic Party wrote in their press release that turnout was 171,109 voters.

The atlas link does seem to match the results at NY times site. on a county by county basis.

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/iowa?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=span-abc-region&region=span-abc-region&WT.nav=span-abc-region