Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)

[IceSpear]

Bernie Sanders precinct captain door knocks & finds voter who supported Sanders has switched to Trump.

https://twitter.com/SamanthaJoRoth/status/694215539711815680

Hoping this trend manifests across the entire state!

[IceSpear]

Men (42%): 47-43 Sanders
Women (58%): 55-40 Clinton

Not good for Sanders...

Not that it's solid, but I'd rather be ahead in it than behind...

[IceSpear]

Men (42%): 47-43 Sanders
Women (58%): 55-40 Clinton

Not good for Sanders...

Not that it's solid, but I'd rather be ahead in it than behind...

The entrance polls also showed Hillary winning the IA caucus in 2008, the she came in third.

I'm aware. I'd still rather be ahead in it than behind.

[IceSpear]

So what should the margin be if the poll actually holds up?

50-43

[IceSpear]

So what should the margin be if the poll actually holds up?

50-43

O'Malley can't keep all 7% silly, 15% viability rule and all.

The remaining 7% was split between O'Malley and "uncommitted"

[IceSpear]

The fact that the media is trying to spill this as a win for Sanders is laughable (though very predictable). It's a virtual tie, but it's in one of Sanders' top 5 states demographically. It would be equivalent to Bernie tying Clinton in a Deep South state.

[IceSpear]

The fact that the media is trying to spill this as a win for Sanders is laughable (though very predictable). It's a virtual tie, but it's in one of Sanders' top 5 states demographically. It would be equivalent to Bernie tying Clinton in a Deep South state.

Sanders started this race in single digits, little resources and low name recognition. He was able to tie Clinton in a state. That's pretty impressive - how many people suspected when he first announced that he would be even with Clinton tonight?

What's your point? We've known for months that Sanders is going to do a lot better than most expected early on. He still doesn't have a path to the nomination if he can't win one of his top 5 most demographically favorable states.

[IceSpear]

Kind of important to keep some perspective here.

[IceSpear]

Hillary should write O'Malley a thank-you check. I'm pretty sure that without him getting 8 votes, she'd lose (assuming she doesn't lose anyway).

MSNBC is also saying Hillary won 3 delegates due to 3 different coin flips. Bernie would be winning if he would have won those 3 flips. Pretty crazy!

What a ridiculous way to elect a President. Caucuses should be abolished, tomorrow.

lol seriously. Now maybe Clintonland can get the left wingers on board with abolition of caucuses. Sort of like how Republicans would suddenly jump on abolishing the electoral college if a Republican lost it but won the popular vote.

[IceSpear]

What happens if it's a tie? A coin flip? lol

[IceSpear]

Can someone explain how this is a victory for Sanders? Not to be a hack, but I seriously don't get it. Yes, he did far better than anyone thought he would do early in the year and overcame an initial massive deficit. But that's all old news and has already been factored into the equation for ages. Him possibly winning Iowa was seen as a distinct possibility for months now. It's one of his top 5 most demographically friendly states...and he could only manage a tie.

All the media spin just uses "he's a REAL threat to Clinton now!" as justification, but again, we've already known for ages he had a decent shot to win Iowa.

[IceSpear]

we've already known for ages he had a decent shot to win Iowa.

Says the guy with an inevitable signature.

?

I never saw an Iowa win as crucial to her inevitability (though it would've been nice.) What makes her inevitable is her enormous support among minorities, huge advantage among superdelegates, a highly favorable primary calendar after NH, and an Obama endorsement trump card that she almost certainly has to play at the opportune moment if needed. None of these things have anything to do with Iowa. Inevitability doesn't mean you have to win 50 states or even win easily. It just means you're inevitably winning.

[IceSpear]

Can someone explain how this is a victory for Sanders?

Because the media isn't declaring it a victory for Clinton. Furthermore, the horse-race narrative continues and it will only strengthen Sanders in the short-term, as well as fuel his fundraising even more. This gives him the ability to do much better in the coming weeks in states where he would otherwise do abysmally and to absolutely carpet-bomb the South/West with paid media (that will work nicely in conjunction with the earned media) and that will raise name-recognition and encourage more voters to support/get to know him.

Fair enough. I guess this is the difference between media spinners and serious analysts. Those who actually delve into the data see very clearly that a hypothetical Sanders route to victory started with a solid win in Iowa.

[IceSpear]

Sanders beat the expectations game, when everyone said he didn't have a chance and Clinton was expected to run away with this. She was up 20+ points, and Sanders was able to chip away at her lead to a virtual tie. Even with a better ground game and more cash on hand, she still couldn't run away with this. Bernie has the momentum, face the facts.

Who said this? Nearly every media outlet reported the DMR poll as a statistical tie, and at most said Hillary was a (very) modest favorite.

[IceSpear]

What were the stats for Hillary voters that snubbed Obama in the general? I see Sanders' college voters going well over that number.

LOL, keep dreaming. 2008 primary was way more brutal than this year's.  

The dynamic is a bit different though with the more moderate candidate being favored to win this time. Bitter Clinton supporters defected to McCain (see Arkansas), while Bitter Sanders supporters would either vote Stein, or abstain, with maybe a few going to Trump if he makes the general. I can't say how that would change the results, but it wouldn't be exactly the same.

The PUMA effect looked bigger initially, but the economic collapse and Palin scared them back into the arms of Obama for the most part. I think Arkansas would've swung by a similar margin against Obama even if he ran uncontested.

[IceSpear]

Here's the current county map Atlas-style minus counties with precincts still outstanding. It looks like Sanders was able to consolidate basically the entire Ron Paul supporter demographic in Jefferson county, interestingly enough, looking at the Republican results and seeing nothing unusual there.

Will people still argue that Bernie hasn't poached a significant portion of Paulbots?

[IceSpear]

It looks like Kossuth, Hancock, Fremont, Tama, and Muscatine Counties are now all 100% reported. Clinton up by 3, but I really can't see Sanders making up that difference with what's left.

Where are you getting the results from? The NYT currently has 698-694.

[IceSpear]

Hillary by 5, waiting on one precinct. Barring something drastic, it looks like she's won. And a win is a win.

Yay! Congrats Hilldawg! Finally a Clinton has won Iowa!

On a side note, Bernie's really going to be in trouble once we start getting to closed primaries. Even in Iowa, Hillary walloped him among registered Dems.

[IceSpear]

Hillary by 5, waiting on one precinct. Barring something drastic, it looks like she's won. And a win is a win.

Yay! Congrats Hilldawg! Finally a Clinton has won Iowa!

On a side note, Bernie's really going to be in trouble once we start getting to closed primaries. Even in Iowa, Hillary walloped him among registered Dems.

And Clinton has no chance of winning the general seeing people who get independents are the one's who win. Coupled up with Clinton's low approval rating & disconnect with the young, looks incredibly dark for her.

A moderate GOP Candidate is very likely to win against her.

Rubio will probably beat her if he's the nominee since the media hates her and is in the tank for him. But the same would be true if Bernie is the nominee. You really think they wouldn't give him the McGovern/Mondale/Dukakis treatment?

[IceSpear]

Wasn't it floated days ago that 170k would be the tipping point? Apparently 170k was the turnout, and it was razor thin. Frighteningly accurate! Unless I'm just imagining the first thing.

[IceSpear]

Sanders can't even win a state that's 95% white. It probably ended tonight but Sanders' money and win in New Hampshire will probably drag it until the middle of March.

Yeah, along with the "HILLARY IN DANGER!" narrative. But honestly, that's probably how it was going to go regardless. The only way Sanders was going to drop out early would be if he lost NH, and that almost certainly wouldn't have happened even if Hillary won IA in a blowout.

[IceSpear]

Both MSNBC and FiveThirtyEight said the coin flips weren't for state delegate equivalents (i.e. the vote totals.) This is too complicated.

[IceSpear]

Given the media's obsession with the communist who must not be named, they'll probably focus on the coin flips, focus on the Polk County counting incident and try to spin it so that $anders will be seen as the winner. Never mind the fact that all of those incidents were faked by the $anders campaign so that he would have an excuse for losing like the communist that he is. Honestly, when Hillary becomes president, I hope she bans all biased media.

Sanders should be seen as the "winner" here. A few months ago, the commie had no chance in Iowa. He managed to basically make this thing a tie with the ethically-challenged one, especially with the convoluted way you guys count votes in Iowa. Coin flips in an election? Should that ever happen?

That's utter BS. People were saying for AGES that Bernie could win Iowa. FiveThirtyEight wrote an article in July: "Bernie could win IA/NH, and lose everywhere else." I even remember including it on his "ceiling" primary map back in like...2014?