Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)

[Xing]

Well, exit polls are not always conclusive, but that's certainly better news for Hillary than Sanders.

[Xing]

The people that are now coming in are looking good for the Bernie camp.

I'm pretty sure that the entrance poll is off by a lot ...

Not sure it can be off that much.  51-42 is hard to overcome.  

x2

[Xing]

We can't be sure how accurate the entrance polls were until we have all the results, so let's not assume that they're accurate/inaccurate based purely on what we want to happen.

[Xing]

Forgive my ignorance, but is there any reason why they have 9% of the precincts reporting on the Democratic side, but only 2% on the Republican side?

[Xing]

Sanders is closing the gap in Polk, but he's gonna need to do a lot better there to win...

[Xing]

The gap has closed a bit. I doubt it will be enough, but this doesn't look to be an enormous Clinton win.

[Xing]

Clinton's lead is now 3.6%

[Xing]

Yep, I think a lot of people jumped the gun here. A 3% lead (which is declining) with less than half the vote in is far from conclusive.

[Xing]

ABC claims that they're changing their initial characterization from "Clinton narrowly leading" to "too close to call."

[Xing]

Wow, I didn't expect such a photo finish! Even if Hillary pulls this out (my gut says she just squeaks by), it's hard to call this a bad result for the Bern.

[Xing]

Wow, I didn't expect such a photo finish! Even if Hillary pulls this out (my gut says she just squeaks by), it's hard to call this a bad result for the Bern.

Actually it is very bad for Bernie. Iowa is his third most friendly demographic state so if he can't win there he has little chance winning anywhere else outside of Vermont/N.H.

That's an exaggeration, but even so, he overperformed expectations, and did what people until recently thought was unthinkable: He pulled even with Hillary.

[Xing]

Wow, I didn't expect such a photo finish! Even if Hillary pulls this out (my gut says she just squeaks by), it's hard to call this a bad result for the Bern.

Actually it is very bad for Bernie. Iowa is his third most friendly demographic state so if he can't win there he has little chance winning anywhere else outside of Vermont/N.H.

That's an exaggeration, but even so, he overperformed expectations, and did what people until recently thought was unthinkable: He pulled even with Hillary.

Nope, according to Nate Silver only Vermont and New Hampshire are more demographically friendly to Sanders than Iowa.

I didn't realize Nate Silver was always right, but whatever. The point is that the narrative will likely change after tonight. Clinton was supposed to be invulnerable, and while she's still definitely the favorite going ahead, very few people will act as if Sanders has no chance at all.

[Xing]

It just gets closer and closer...

[Xing]

Honestly, I think a coronation would have ended very badly for Hillary Clinton. Close races like these increase interest, and get more people involved in the Democratic race. This is what we need to do to win the general election, increase interest and enthusiasm.

[Xing]

The fact that the media is trying to spill this as a win for Sanders is laughable (though very predictable). It's a virtual tie, but it's in one of Sanders' top 5 states demographically. It would be equivalent to Bernie tying Clinton in a Deep South state.

Sanders started this race in single digits, little resources and low name recognition. He was able to tie Clinton in a state. That's pretty impressive - how many people suspected when he first announced that he would be even with Clinton tonight?

Pretty much this. Of course, Clinton is favored going ahead (though not in NH), but as I've said, expect a narrative change.

[Xing]

Does this bode well for Hillary in November in Iowa?

It probably doesn't say that much one way or the other.

I think the takeaway is that, yes, Hillary probably has this, but there are clearly voters in the Democratic party that she has to win over (say what you will about her favorability ratings.) Mock "Sandernistas" at your own peril; if Hillary wins the nomination, she needs them to turn out for her to win a GE.

[Xing]

Does this bode well for Hillary in November in Iowa?

It probably doesn't say that much one way or the other.

I think the takeaway is that, yes, Hillary probably has this, but there are clearly voters in the Democratic party that she has to win over (say what you will about her favorability ratings.) Mock "Sandernistas" at your own peril; if Hillary wins the nomination, she needs them to turn out for her to win a GE.

Not so much. Most of them weren't even eligible to vote during the last presidential cycle and Hillary has the Obama voter coalition that will win the day in the general election.

If 49.5% of Iowans voted for Bernie, that doesn't suggest that she has the Obama coalition in the bag. Plenty of 22-30 year-olds who supported Obama are for Bernie now. She CAN win these voters, but she can't take them for granted.

[Xing]

Yeah, whether Clinton or Sanders win here won't exactly make an enormous difference in terms of delegates. It'll be more about the media narrative.

[Xing]

I, for one, am quite happy with the outcome of this race. A competitive contest draws attention and excitement to the Democratic side, which is exactly what we need if we don't want a President Cruz/Rubio/Trump.