Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So what should the margin be if the poll actually holds up?

50-43

O'Malley can't keep all 7% silly, 15% viability rule and all.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is Bernie willing the popular (non-delegate) vote? It was commonly believed that Sanders would be concentrated in cities which would lead to this happening, but I'm not seeing much of an urban-rural split here.

No raw vote is released.

Clinton has 11 more state delegates at this point.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

16% still to count.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

No matter what this is a win for Sanders.

I beg to differ. Sanders' campaign committed voter fraud. If we had a legitimate, fair election, Sanders would be behind by double digits.

Stop it with these false claims. Find your sources or GTFO.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think Clinton has this, barely. But the nomination is not yet over.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Does this bode well for Hillary in November in Iowa?

It probably doesn't say that much one way or the other.

I think the takeaway is that, yes, Hillary probably has this, but there are clearly voters in the Democratic party that she has to win over (say what you will about her favorability ratings.) Mock "Sandernistas" at your own peril; if Hillary wins the nomination, she needs them to turn out for her to win a GE.

Not so much. Most of them weren't even eligible to vote during the last presidential cycle and Hillary has the Obama voter coalition that will win the day in the general election.

Black turnout will be down from 2012, and republicans will get about 10% of it (Romney got 6%.). If Rubio is the nominee (he performed about as well as he could expect tonight), he appears to have what it takes to woo at least some of the Hispanics who voted GWB/Obama/Obama back to the republican side. The question will be if the Republicans can match or exceed Romney's showing among Whites (GWB actually did worse than Romney there), and if this is the year where the white % of the vote will stop decreasing for the time being (it will happen eventually).

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The hackery here is stunning. This was a statistical tie fair and square with the final results showing Bernie just a few delegates behind her in the last minutes. I give credit to Hillary and her campaign for getting out her vote, but Bernie really was the real star here. He really did something amazing and the fact that it was this close just shows how exciting the race is to Democrats at least so far.

It will be dull starting on Super Tuesday and beyond. Because Bernie won't be competitive then.

A month ago he wasn't competitive, but he has the movement, he has the money, he has the momentum. All he needs is the message. I think he can turn this around in his favor.

Wrong! No chance. Tell me which state he wins on Super Tuesday and beyond. Vermont and ??

Minnesota at minimum. Probably Colorado. We'll see beyond that.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final numbers on AP: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2016/by_state/IA_Page_0201.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Clinton 701
Sanders 697
O'Malley 8

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Sanders is the real winner and Clinton the real loser tonight, as Sean Hannity and the Bernie Sanders supporters have found common ground on, then why are all the Clinton supporters here calm and all the Sanders supporters hysterically tearing their hair about with conspiracy theories about coin flips?

Because while Sanders and his campaign surrogates are putting the best possible spin on this virtual tie, Sanders needed a clear win. Granted, anything could still happen, especially with the FBI possibly playing the indictment card at any moment, but this was not what Sanders wanted to accomplish.