Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)

[Landslide Lyndon]

A poll just out today is showing Sanders with a 3 point lead in Iowa. Oh boy this is gonna be fun.

From, uh, Quinnipiac, though, which is a not very good pollster.

And which showed Sanders ahead by 5 and 4 points in their last polls, so he has negative momentum.

[Landslide Lyndon]

A poll just out today is showing Sanders with a 3 point lead in Iowa. Oh boy this is gonna be fun.

From, uh, Quinnipiac, though, which is a not very good pollster.

And which showed Sanders ahead by 5 and 4 points in their last polls, so he has negative momentum.

Seriously you are going to compare numbers by 2% points and say he has negative momentum? You are a joke.

Go watch some porn kid.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Bernie Sanders precinct captain door knocks & finds voter who supported Sanders has switched to Trump.

https://twitter.com/SamanthaJoRoth/status/694215539711815680

Hoping this trend manifests across the entire state!

Well, duh!!! He went from one angry candidate to the other.

[Landslide Lyndon]

OH MY GOD, CLINTON AND SANDERS ARE "EARLY LEADERS."

NO SH*T CNN!

[Landslide Lyndon]

here are numbers from 2008 for comparisons
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/IA.html

All these exit polls/entrance polls are often adjusted afterwards to match the real results.  But I did recall that back in 2008 Obama did lead the entrance polls for Iowa.

CNN just said Clinton led the early entrance poll in 2008.

They obviously don't know what they are talking about. I remember too that in 2008 Obama was leading the entrance polls by 3-4 points.

[Landslide Lyndon]

CBS entrance poll
First time caucus goers for the dems:

59% for Sanders
39% for Clinton

Actually that's pretty decent for Clinton.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Evangelicals as a share of the GOP electorate is higher than it was in 2012 (!!!), though they're essentially splitting three ways (25-25-25) over Cruz/Trump/Carson.

Wrong thread.

[Landslide Lyndon]

According to DKE Clinton is doing MUCH better in eastern Iowa where she was swamped back in 2008.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Black Hawk county was 42-28 Obama, now 55-45 Clinton.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is the forum crashing again?

[Landslide Lyndon]

The delegate equivalent margin is pretty much constant. It is 18 now.

Yeah, it's been an 18 +/-2 delegate difference all night. Polk slowly coming in. Johnson, Iowa and Story pulling through for Sanders... dunno if it'll be enough.

The number-crunchers on twitter say that Sanders' wins at Johnson and Story are underwhelming.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Wow, I didn't expect such a photo finish! Even if Hillary pulls this out (my gut says she just squeaks by), it's hard to call this a bad result for the Bern.

Actually it is very bad for Bernie. Iowa is his third most friendly demographic state so if he can't win there he has little chance winning anywhere else outside of Vermont/N.H.

That's an exaggeration, but even so, he overperformed expectations, and did what people until recently thought was unthinkable: He pulled even with Hillary.

Nope, according to Nate Silver only Vermont and New Hampshire are more demographically friendly to Sanders than Iowa.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Hillary should write O'Malley a thank-you check. I'm pretty sure that without him getting 8 votes, she'd lose (assuming she doesn't lose anyway).

MSNBC is also saying Hillary won 3 delegates due to 3 different coin flips. Bernie would be winning if he would have won those 3 flips. Pretty crazy!

What a ridiculous way to elect a President. Caucuses should be abolished, tomorrow.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Hillary should write O'Malley a thank-you check. I'm pretty sure that without him getting 8 votes, she'd lose (assuming she doesn't lose anyway).

MSNBC is also saying Hillary won 3 delegates due to 3 different coin flips. Bernie would be winning if he would have won those 3 flips. Pretty crazy!

What a ridiculous way to elect a President. Caucuses should be abolished, tomorrow.

I can't tell if you're serious, but I agree.

Why wouldn't I be serious?

[Landslide Lyndon]

What happens if it's a tie? A coin flip? lol

Didn't Hillary already win like 3 delegates by coin flip or something?

According to 538, that's not really what happened, but then again, it's 538...

It's not 538, an activist from Iowa explained what really happened.

[Landslide Lyndon]

What were the stats for Hillary voters that snubbed Obama in the general? I see Sanders' college voters going well over that number.

LOL, keep dreaming. 2008 primary was way more brutal than this year's.  

[Landslide Lyndon]

What were the stats for Hillary voters that snubbed Obama in the general? I see Sanders' college voters going well over that number.

LOL, keep dreaming. 2008 primary was way more brutal than this year's.  

The dynamic is a bit different though with the more moderate candidate being favored to win this time. Bitter Clinton supporters defected to McCain (see Arkansas), while Bitter Sanders supporters would either vote Stein, or abstain, with maybe a few going to Trump if he makes the general. I can't say how that would change the results, but it wouldn't be exactly the same.

Clinton rans on a pretty liberal platform. It's just that she advocates realism instead of wild promises about a revolution that will upend the status quo.
When the ghost of a TRUMP or Cruz presidency appears they will vote enthusiastically for Hillary.  

[Landslide Lyndon]

A moderate GOP Candidate is very likely to win against her.

Santa Claus is very likely to beat her and about as possible to be the Republican nominee as a moderate GOPer.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Sanders can't even win a state that's 95% white. It probably ended tonight but Sanders' money and win in New Hampshire will probably drag it until the middle of March.

I don't think that's a bad thing. After almost 8 years away from elective politics Clinton is probably a bit creaky. A couple of months of hard campaigning against a feisty sparring partner can't do any harm to her and the party.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It looks like Hillary won 5 delegates with a coin toss

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/02/02/sometimes-iowa-democrats-award-caucus-delegates-coin-flip/79680342/

I wonder if winning 5 out of 5 coin flips is statistically significant?  Jfern?

It's a conspiracy. DWS gave rigged coins to the precinct captains.

[Landslide Lyndon]

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/02/bernie-sanders-requests-vote-count-tight-finish-iowa-caucus-clinton?CMP=twt_gu

Bernie Sanders wants raw vote count released after tight finish in Iowa caucuses

Pitiful. The socialist codger from Vermont shows once again that he is a sore loser who has no idea how the Democratic party works and cares only for his ego.

[Landslide Lyndon]

wtf at saying Clinton won't win the youth vote in the general because they backed Sanders here.

That reminds me of the Clinton hacks back in 2008 when they were saying that Obama can't win California and Pennsylvania because she beat him by double digits in these states.