Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)

[Adam Griffin]

Anyone seeing anything on turnout?

CNN just reported unusually high REP turnout, normal year turnout for DEMS.

TRUMPslide!

MSNBC is reporting that there are a lot of new registrations on both sides.

[Adam Griffin]

Yes, it may be just typical media hyping, but both CNN & MSNBC are both saying that at the sites they're physically monitoring, Democratic turnout is hitting or surpassing 2008 levels, and there are tons of first-time voters and new voter registrations. It may have no bearing on the statewide turnout totals, though, and the reports could be entirely off.

[Adam Griffin]

43% on the GOP side are first-time voters...

[Adam Griffin]

41% on the Dem side are first-time voters. Considerably higher than the Selzer poll (34%) but much lower than 2008 (60%).

[Adam Griffin]

MSNBC just revised its entrance polls for first-time voters and are now saying it's 44% on the Dem side.

17-29 year-olds: 17% of caucus-goers - was 20%(?) in 2008. I didn't catch the final number on the 2008 figure because my stupid stream glitched out.

[Adam Griffin]

Current Dem Totals:

Clinton 52%
Sanders 46%
O'Malley 2%

[Adam Griffin]

Lucas County appears to be the first county 100% reporting:

60-40 Clinton

[Adam Griffin]

In terms of counties fully reporting thus far, here's what we have. Not much to look at yet.

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

49.8-49.6 WTF

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

Tied county on the Dem side now, too!

[Adam Griffin]

Drive that neoliberal harpy back below 50!

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

BACK TO 49.8-49.6

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

Supposedly Sanders picked up a new delegate in Linn County (670 Clinton - 667 Sanders).

[Adam Griffin]

I like how CNN MEDIA HACKS keep rounding up O'WoeIsM'alley's PATHETIC 0.6% to "1%" while rounding down Sanders' VERY STRONG 49.6% to "49%" so that they can give Clinton her 50%.

[Adam Griffin]

Sanders won a greater share of under 30 voters (84%) than Obama did in 2008 (81%), but under 30 voters made up a smaller share of voters this time compared to 2008.

In 2008, under 30 and over 65 were equal shares (23%). In 2016, under 30s were 18%; over 65s were 28%.

[Adam Griffin]

Sanders won a greater share of under 30 voters (84%) than Obama did in 2008 (81%), but under 30 voters made up a smaller share of voters this time compared to 2008.

In 2008, under 30 and over 65 were equal shares (23%). In 2016, under 30s were 18%; over 65s were 28%.

If 18-30 and 65+ had both been 23% of the voters each (like they were in 2008), according to entrance polls, Sanders would have won by 6 points (52.5-46.7%).