Republican Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)

[Adam Griffin]

[Nathan Towne]

Bernie Sanders is utterly clueless.

[Mr. Morden]

From Twitter, here's the Fiorina caucus night party at the time Sanders was speaking:



Carly herself apparently never showed up to address supporters.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump in 2013:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/417760911177162752

[H. Ross Peron]

I never thought I would be celebrating Ted Cruz leading in Iowa, but... there I am.

Yes because Ted Cruz would be so much better...

[Vern]

I never thought I would be celebrating Ted Cruz leading in Iowa, but... there I am.

Yes because Ted Cruz would be so much better...

Ted Cruz winning tonight helps Rubio.

[SteveRogers]

3rd place = coronation? I know Rubio beat expectations, but so did Cruz by finishing first after all the polls had him down...and the calendar is still more favorable towards Cruz...

Rubio's chances in a head-to-head match-up against Cruz are exponentially better than his chances in a match-up against Trump.

[Slow Learner]

lol I was wrong as shyte

[pikachu]

3rd place = coronation? I know Rubio beat expectations, but so did Cruz by finishing first after all the polls had him down...and the calendar is still more favorable towards Cruz...

Rubio's chances in a head-to-head match-up against Cruz are exponentially better than his chances in a match-up against Trump.

If Rubio doesn't win NH, then he's not going to have a head-to-head. As of now, he's still losing NH, and I'd guess that the other establishment candidates are going to spend the rest of the week continuing to try destroying him there. Now, maybe there'll be a poll in NH which has Trump's 20-point lead completely collapsing and Rubio pulling away and I'll be completely wrong, but if loses NH and SC (not implausible), than he's a guy with no victories going into deeply hostile Super Tuesday territory. Imo, the favorite at this point should be Cruz. His path looks the clearest.

[136or142]

One precinct is still out, does anyone know where it is?

This was the prediction for the Iowa result that I made on January 11

Iowa Caucus
1.Ted Cruz
2.Donald Trump
3.Ben Carson
4.Marco Rubio
5.Jeb Bush
6.Carly Fiorina
7.John Kasich
8.Rand Paul
9.Mike Huckabee
10.Rick Santorum
11.Chris Christie
12.Jim Gilmore

Actual result, with one precinct out
1.Ted Cruz
2.Donald Trump
3.Marco Rubio
4.Ben Carson
5.Rand Paul
6.Jeb Bush
7.Carly Fiorina
8.John Kasich
9.Mike Huckabee
10.Chris Christie
11.Rick Santorum
12.Jim Gilmore (with 12 votes)

[cinyc]

One precinct is still out, does anyone know where it is?

Coralville 03, Johnson County.

[SteveRogers]

3rd place = coronation? I know Rubio beat expectations, but so did Cruz by finishing first after all the polls had him down...and the calendar is still more favorable towards Cruz...

Rubio's chances in a head-to-head match-up against Cruz are exponentially better than his chances in a match-up against Trump.

If Rubio doesn't win NH, then he's not going to have a head-to-head. As of now, he's still losing NH, and I'd guess that the other establishment candidates are going to spend the rest of the week continuing to try destroying him there. Now, maybe there'll be a poll in NH which has Trump's 20-point lead completely collapsing and Rubio pulling away and I'll be completely wrong, but if loses NH and SC (not implausible), than he's a guy with no victories going into deeply hostile Super Tuesday territory. Imo, the favorite at this point should be Cruz. His path looks the clearest.

Yeah, I'm not saying it's a done deal by any means, but Rubio certainly has reason to celebrate tonight.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

[pikachu]

3rd place = coronation? I know Rubio beat expectations, but so did Cruz by finishing first after all the polls had him down...and the calendar is still more favorable towards Cruz...

Rubio's chances in a head-to-head match-up against Cruz are exponentially better than his chances in a match-up against Trump.

If Rubio doesn't win NH, then he's not going to have a head-to-head. As of now, he's still losing NH, and I'd guess that the other establishment candidates are going to spend the rest of the week continuing to try destroying him there. Now, maybe there'll be a poll in NH which has Trump's 20-point lead completely collapsing and Rubio pulling away and I'll be completely wrong, but if loses NH and SC (not implausible), than he's a guy with no victories going into deeply hostile Super Tuesday territory. Imo, the favorite at this point should be Cruz. His path looks the clearest.

Disagree strongly.  Trump out early (after NH or prior to 3/1) means Cruz can coalesce the anti-establishment and Evangelical vote and take that fight to the South.  Trump winning NH and doing respectably in SC sets up Rubio plurality wins throughout the South, and should be enough to seal the deal for Rubio.  Unless Trump actually wins SC and/or NV, in which case Rubio fades and we're back to Trump vs. Cruz.  The latter would greatly surprise me at this point.

The partial establishment embrace of Trump in January really looks like a McCaskill play to me now.  Their internals probably had a statistical tie/narrow Cruz lead all along!

I can see that happening, but let's remember in 2012, we had a similar scenario. Romney still didn't win a single contested Southern state, and I think that since then, the anti-establishment vote share has only grown. I'm probably considerably more skeptical than you that Rubio's going to actually win any early states, and I think that Cruz and Trump are going to be more appealing candidates than Gingrich and Santorum were following February 2012. (And if I'm correct Rubio is entering the South with much less inevitability than Romney 2012, though I do think Rubio's a significantly better population.)

[Silent Hunter]

My reaction to Donald Trump:

[Phony Moderate]

My reaction to Donald Trump:

You should be reacting to the fact that someone more extreme and more hateful than TRUMP won.

[BM]

Really, Republicans? This?



A new low.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Really, Republicans? This?



A new low.

Yet you support that.....'thing'..... yeah ok..

[/]

Fiorina ended up ahead of Kasich by two votes.

If anyone cares.

[Vern]

I am very proud to be a Republican this morning. 62% of the Republican voters last night voted for a non white male.

[/]

I am very proud to be a Republican this morning. 62% of the Republican voters last night voted for a non white male.

lol is there anyone whiter than marco rubio or ted cruz

even ben carson tbh

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I am very proud to be a Republican this morning. 62% of the Republican voters last night voted for a non white male.

lol is there anyone whiter than marco rubio or ted cruz

even ben carson tbh

What is that supposed to mean?

[Vern]

I am very proud to be a Republican this morning. 62% of the Republican voters last night voted for a non white male.

lol is there anyone whiter than marco rubio or ted cruz

even ben carson tbh

Yes, a white person. Just because one doesn't act like what you think someone of color should act like doesn't mean they "white".

[Lief 🗽]

Both Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are white.

[BM]

Really, Republicans? This?



A new low.

Yet you support that.....'thing'..... yeah ok..

If it makes you feel better, it's not just that Cruz is the most physically revolting candidate of all time, has no distinguishable neck, and looks like he has no teeth when he smiles. It's that the creep factor is through the roof with him. The kind of face and demeanor you see on Dateline.

The gender gap with him would be even bigger than with Trump.