Republican Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)

[Vern]

Both Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are white.

lol

[ag]

I am very proud to be a Republican this morning. 62% of the Republican voters last night voted for a non white male.

lol is there anyone whiter than marco rubio or ted cruz

even ben carson tbh

Yes, a white person. Just because one doesn't act like what you think someone of color should act like doesn't mean they "white".

Upper class Cubans are white by any definition of the term. As white as anybody coming straight from Europe. Even if you somehow make language "colorfull",  Jeb Bush has a better claim to be "a man of color" than Cruz - and no worse than Rubio, for that matter.

My children are Mexican by birth and speak better Spanish than any of those jokers. But were they to migrate to the US nobody would think of them as "colored".

[Vern]

I am very proud to be a Republican this morning. 62% of the Republican voters last night voted for a non white male.

lol is there anyone whiter than marco rubio or ted cruz

even ben carson tbh

Yes, a white person. Just because one doesn't act like what you think someone of color should act like doesn't mean they "white".

Upper class Cubans are white by any definition of the term. As white as anybody coming straight from Europe. Even if you somehow make language "colorfull",  Jeb Bush has a better claim to be "a man of color" than Cruz - and no worse than Rubio, for that matter.

My children are Mexican by birth and speak better Spanish than any of those jokers. But were they to migrate to the US nobody would think of them as "colored".

But there again, you are saying they are white because they act like this. But how can one act "white". To me that is racist to say. Your race isn't based on how one acts...

[Badger]

Santorum is staying in, heading to SC:

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/694328162113564672

tricky, tricky ricky...

LOL, his 2012 win in Iowa where he came out nowhere at the back of the pack to a win probably has him thinking he'll get another magical win.

if i had to guess based on his recent appearance at the Trump debate-alternative rally, a deal to keep runing and hopefuly syphon a few points from Cruz.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Santorum is staying in, heading to SC:

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/694328162113564672

tricky, tricky ricky...

LOL, his 2012 win in Iowa where he came out nowhere at the back of the pack to a win probably has him thinking he'll get another magical win.

if i had to guess based on his recent appearance at the Trump debate-alternative rally, a deal to keep runing and hopefuly syphon a few points from Cruz.

SANTORUM
1,783 Votes
1.0%

ONE point LOL

[Torie]

A few interesting things, just looking at the precinct map. Rubio's vote of course was heavily correlated with wealth and class. Higher income urban precincts went for Rubio in a big way, such as in Bettendorf, Iowa in Scott County. That was true all over the state. And there was one other area where Rubio can strongly, in the Dutch NW corner of the state, where Trump's vote disappeared. I guess the Dutch don't like Trump's crassness, and there Carson did particularly well. I suspect Rubio did well, because the farmers there are really wealthy. It's basically a relatively rich rural area.

The other interesting thing, is that in the southern tier of counties, Rubio's vote essentially came close to all but disappearing, and Carson did particularly well, as if those counties were the northernmost reaches of the South. They do tend to be poorer counties. In poorer rural areas, where some of the residents are not commuting to an urban area to work, Rubio did poorly. You can see that in Madison County, where Rubio did well in Winterest, particularly the wealthier part, where some folks commute to Des Moines, but very poorly in the southern part of the county, which is the poorest part of the county, with more hilly not very valuable farmland, and where folks do not commute to Des Moines.

Cruz won by doing well also with higher income voters (much better than Trump in most places), along with better than Rubio in poorer rural areas.

[Torie]

Santorum is staying in, heading to SC:

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/694328162113564672

Why.jpg

He still has money to spend from his rich friend. Santorum is a narcissist.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Last night winners and losers:

Winners: Cruz and Rubio

Losers: Trump and Bush

[Torie]

Apparently a lot of Trump people broke for Rubio last minute LOL

Probably from the more moderate, more secular, more upscale cohort of Trump voters. One lady was interviewed by Fox in the Des Moines area before the voting began who seemed like that.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Apparently a lot of Trump people broke for Rubio last minute LOL

Probably from the more moderate, more secular, more upscale cohort of Trump voters. One lady was interviewed by Fox in the Des Moines area before the voting began who seemed like that.

Traitors! Instead of voting for working-class hero TRUMP they preferred the limp-wristed, metrosexual, establishment bitch who pals around with kiddie-porn barons.

[Torie]

Apparently a lot of Trump people broke for Rubio last minute LOL

Probably from the more moderate, more secular, more upscale cohort of Trump voters. One lady was interviewed by Fox in the Des Moines area before the voting began who seemed like that.

Traitors! Instead of voting for working-class hero TRUMP they preferred the limp-wristed, metrosexual, establishment bitch who pals around with kiddie-porn barons.

LOL.  Just my type. I just added up the Pub total vote on my excel spreadsheet, with I guess not quite all the votes counted: 186,676, exceeding the 170,000 figure that the gurus thought might be the absolute maximum, and the suggestion that it really might get that high was derided in most quarters.  It is amazing Trump tanked with such a massive turnout. That is where the CW blew it the most. Trump's support must really have eroded rather massively at the end there. With that vote turnout, one would have thought that Trump would have garnered something like 33% of the vote or thereabouts, rather than 24%. The Cruz numbers guy on Fox said they were amazed that Trump did so poorly with such a high turnout, and Cruz so well.

Where's Lief? Will we still be hearing from him as much on his favorite topic in the future, or will he spend most of his time doing a number on the hot booted dude now? I really like his smile by the way.

[Torie]

CBS News' entrance poll was something like 29% Trump, 22% Cruz, 20% Rubio.

When this came out I chortled to partner Dan that my prediction was close to spot on, and I looked forward to accepting my accolades on Atlas. But then something happened.

[Torie]

My math on the GOP entrance poll:

Trump ~29%
Cruz ~22%
Rubio ~19%
Fiorina ~4%
Huckabee ~3.5%
Bush ~3%
Christie ~3%
Paul ~3%
Kasich ~1.5%
Santorum ~1.5%

I wonder if Rubio picked up some votes from Fiorina after the caucus speeches.

[Torie]

So far with 7 percent of precincts in, Cruz leading 30 percent to 29 percent for Trump, 18 percent for Rubio. Raw votes so far much closer between Trump/Cruz than entrance polls indicated, and Rubio further down. BUT, this could be misleading: These are most likely tiny, more rural caucus sites that are easier to count fast. For Trump and Rubio, bigger is better. As YUGE suburban precincts start reporting votes, I’d expect Trump and Rubio’s numbers to go up.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/iowa-caucus-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-13989497

Real dumbness from 538. They failed to look at the counties, and see that Cruz and Rubio were running about even there, with Trump way behind, except in the west.  So that meant Trump was destined to go down, not up. And the cities are where the money is, and Trump's base was poorer folks in general. FAIL.

[Torie]

Nevermind. Trump only trailing 3 points with nothing reporting Debuque or Cedar Rapids, that's probably good news.

Cedar Rapids was expected to be a bad area for Trump, and was. At this point, it seems clear that Trump had clearly lost. The later precincts reporting tend to be the bigger urban precincts, where Trump was weakest, and Rubio strongest, so the writing is on the wall that Trump was going to go down and Rubio up, and the issue was whether or not Rubio could close the gap with Trump.

[Zanas]

So, as a fellow user said somewhere, it's all a case of French regional elections' runoff Dec. 15. Voters showed up en masse to stop Trump, and they did so by disproportionately choosing the two options that were on hand for them to achieve this goal : Cruz and Rubio. Some Bush, Christie, Kasich and probably Fiorina voters also switched their choice to Rubio, et voilà !

I'd say that Trump probably got the raw numbers he could count on, his turnout was probably OK, but Cruz's and Rubio's were off the charts. When you get 30% of likely polled voters, you get 24% of actual voters when your opponents get a lot of in extremis new supporters not likely to show up a few days before.

[Torie]

Well the one thing I was right about in this election, is that my favorite bellwether county, Warren, turned out to be pretty good.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final numbers on AP:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2016/by_state/IA_Page_0201.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[Nathan Towne]

Final numbers on AP:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2016/by_state/IA_Page_0201.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Jim Gilmore got only twelve votes? Twelve?

[Asian Nazi]

Jim Gilmore got only twelve votes? Twelve?

Yep.  I think this shows how meaningless the undercard debates are.

[Mopsus]

RIP Jeb Bush
RIP Chris Christie
RIP John Kasich

[defe07]

Last night winners and losers:

Winners: Cruz and Rubio and goldman sachs

Losers: Trump and Bush

Fixed it!

[136or142]

Ted Cruz ends Iowa caucus with 51,666 votes.  666 seems about right for Ted Cruz.

Ted Cruz, Donald Trump and Marco Rubio: the Three Unwise Men.

[RI]

Republican caucus by precinct (Trump blue, Cruz yellow, Rubio green, Carson purple, Fiorina red, Santorum orange):

[The Other Castro]

Santorum won a precinct?