Republican Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)

[Mr. Morden]

Caucuses begin at 7pm local time, which is 8pm Eastern.  That’s when the networks will release their entrance poll.  The real results should start trickling in about 30-40 minutes later.

CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ia/Rep

Des Moines Register: http://data.desmoinesregister.com/iowa-caucus/results/index.php

[Mr. Morden]

CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ia/Rep

Des Moines Register: http://data.desmoinesregister.com/iowa-caucus/results/index.php

By the way, how about the color schemes both of these are using for the different candidates?  They are so wedded to "blue = Democrats, red = Republicans" that it severely limits the color selection.  Imagine if six different candidates won counties on the Republican side.  The map would be totally unreadable.

[Mr. Morden]

Where the candidates will be on caucus night:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/where-each-candidate-will-be-on-iowa-caucus-night-218483?lo=ap_c2

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Yes, Bush, Christie, and Kasich (and probably Gilmore) will all be in New Hampshire.

[Mr. Morden]

Results for both parties might come a bit faster this time because, rather than phoning in the results, both parties are using new Microsoft cloud-based apps to send the results to party HQ.  See this video (the first part is just a description of how the Iowa caucus works; skip ahead to 2:50 for discussion of the app):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_oMVkSfFsw

[Mr. Morden]

Oh nice and thank you. By any chance do you have a link or anything as to how the delegates are distributed in iowa? Is it based on what place you come in? What counties you win? ect.

Erc's thread explains it:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4863885#msg4863885

[Mr. Morden]

CBS says entrance poll has Trump leading:

https://twitter.com/CBSPolitics

[Mr. Morden]

CNN entrance poll:

Trump ~29%
Cruz ~22%
Rubio ~19%

[Mr. Morden]

Go to the bottom of this page and average the #s for men and women to get the topline #s:

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ia/Rep

[Mr. Morden]

My math on the GOP entrance poll:

Trump ~29%
Cruz ~22%
Rubio ~19%
Fiorina ~4%
Huckabee ~3.5%
Bush ~3%
Christie ~3%
Paul ~3%
Kasich ~1.5%
Santorum ~1.5%

[Mr. Morden]

My math on the GOP entrance poll:

Trump ~29%
Cruz ~22%
Rubio ~19%
Fiorina ~4%
Huckabee ~3.5%
Bush ~3%
Christie ~3%
Paul ~3%
Kasich ~1.5%
Santorum ~1.5%

Carson?

Sorry, I forgot Carson:

Trump ~29%
Cruz ~22%
Rubio ~19%
Carson ~9.5%
Fiorina ~4%
Huckabee ~3.5%
Bush ~3%
Christie ~3%
Paul ~3%
Kasich ~1.5%
Santorum ~1.5%

[Mr. Morden]

2012 GOP caucus results and entrance poll for comparison

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/iowa

But that's the final entrance poll.  The initial wave entrance poll had Paul and Romney roughly tied, and Santorum about 6 points behind.

[Mr. Morden]

Paul behind Bush, Fiorina, and Christie? And I thought he could actually get fifth...

He's tied with Bush and Christie at 3%.  Don't read anything into the order I put them in.  Anyway, it's just an entrance poll.

[Mr. Morden]

Revised CNN entrance poll:

Trump ~27.5%
Cruz ~21.5%
Rubio ~21.5%

[Mr. Morden]

Entrance polls:

Rubio won college graduates.  Trump won non-college graduates.  Trump actually stronger with olds than youngs.

very conservative: Cruz
somewhat conservative: Rubio
moderate: Trump

[Mr. Morden]

Entrance polls:

rural: Trump
suburban: Cruz
urban: Trump

Rubio leads in eastern Iowa.  Trump leads in western and central Iowa.

[Mr. Morden]

Gilmore still has zero votes.

[Mr. Morden]

Gilmore now has 2 votes!:

https://www.iagopcaucuses.com/#/state

Victory for Gilmore!

[Mr. Morden]

CNN's revised exit poll that includes the later arrivers has Cruz and Trump roughly tied for first, with Rubio about 3 or 4 points behind.

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

53% now reporting:

cruz 29
trump 25
rubio 21

[Mr. Morden]

Big winner on the Republican side is Emerson College Polling.

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

From Twitter, here's the Fiorina caucus night party at the time Sanders was speaking:



Carly herself apparently never showed up to address supporters.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump in 2013:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/417760911177162752