Republican Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) (user search)
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  Republican Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Republican Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)  (Read 33828 times)
Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« on: February 01, 2016, 07:25:27 PM »
CNN is saying that 1/5 of the voters in some supposed bellwether precinct are first-timers.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2016, 07:27:24 PM »
Quote from: realisticidealist on February 01, 2016, 07:26:05 PM
Quote from: Ted Bessell, Bass God of the West on February 01, 2016, 07:25:27 PM
CNN is saying that 1/5 of the voters in some supposed bellwether precinct are first-timers.

That was a very rough estimate. I'd wait for the entrance poll.

Agreed, should have included that in the post. However, they're also reporting unusually high numbers of people switching parties, partly to vote for Trump but partly to vote against him.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2016, 07:28:23 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on February 01, 2016, 07:26:57 PM
At this point I think it would take a good upset for Trump to lose this.

Agreed. It's looking better and better for him, and his likely margin is just growing and growing in my head.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2016, 07:32:53 PM »
Sorry for triple-posting, but according to CNN Rubio is expecting a strong third.

www.cnn.com
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #4 on: February 01, 2016, 07:39:00 PM »
Quote from: Volrath50 on February 01, 2016, 07:37:12 PM
Quote from: Ted Bessell, Bass God of the West on February 01, 2016, 07:32:53 PM
Sorry for triple-posting, but according to CNN Rubio is expecting a strong third.

www.cnn.com

That means nothing, really. Rubio might say that even if he thought he was in second with a real chance at first, just to lower expectations.

True. However, I thought some of you might be interested.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #5 on: February 01, 2016, 07:40:21 PM »
Quote from: #TheShadowyAbyss on February 01, 2016, 07:39:15 PM
CNN is saying ENORMOUS registration on the GOP side is happening

Yeah. That is likely really, really good for Trump. I'm beginning to think that this could be a landslide.

EDIT: Probably just getting ahead of myself, anything can happen
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #6 on: February 01, 2016, 07:49:59 PM »
I though Carson would stick it out until SC, but since when have I been right Tongue
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #7 on: February 01, 2016, 07:52:13 PM »
OMG!!! I'm seeing The Magic WallTM in action! I never thought this day would come!


YAY, not that it matters now
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #8 on: February 01, 2016, 07:55:01 PM »
Man. Can you guys imagine if Republicans had a 15% viability threshold like the Dems? It would be so freakin' chaotic.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #9 on: February 01, 2016, 07:58:32 PM »
Quote from: Admiral Kizaru on February 01, 2016, 07:57:22 PM
What happens if people are still queuing when the doors are meant to close? Will they wait?

Apparently this is happening. They're actually starting late because of it, according to CNN, and it's already standing room only.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #10 on: February 01, 2016, 08:00:56 PM »
Three-way between Trump, Cruz, Rubs

EDIT: Posted in a hurry, but will preserve for hilarity. The CNN Entry polls show it's a three-way race between them.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #11 on: February 01, 2016, 08:02:08 PM »
43% first-timers? D:
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #12 on: February 01, 2016, 08:03:29 PM »
Quote from: cinyc on February 01, 2016, 08:02:32 PM
CBS News' entrance poll was something like 29% Trump, 22% Cruz, 20% Rubio.

Good for Rubs. I thought Trump would have waaaaaaay more support based on how CNN is reporting, though.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #13 on: February 01, 2016, 08:04:06 PM »

Ah. Still, a fairly significant bump.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #14 on: February 01, 2016, 08:06:12 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on February 01, 2016, 08:04:58 PM
CNN entrance poll:

Trump ~29%
Cruz ~22%
Rubio ~19%


Well, there go my hopes of a Cruz/Rubio upset...
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #15 on: February 01, 2016, 08:13:36 PM »
Paul behind Bush, Fiorina, and Christie? And I thought he could actually get fifth...
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #16 on: February 01, 2016, 08:16:27 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on February 01, 2016, 08:15:39 PM
Quote from: Ted Bessell, Bass God of the West on February 01, 2016, 08:13:36 PM
Paul behind Bush, Fiorina, and Christie? And I thought he could actually get fifth...

He's tied with Bush and Christie at 3%.  Don't read anything into the order I put them in.  Anyway, it's just an entrance poll.


I see. Thanks for tolerating my noobiness, folks, this is my first time.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #17 on: February 01, 2016, 08:18:34 PM »

JEBMENTUM IS REAL
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #18 on: February 01, 2016, 08:25:37 PM »
Quote from: Andrew1 on February 01, 2016, 08:25:17 PM
Rubio is now in 2nd according to CBS

Trump 27
Rubio 23
Cruz 21

YASS
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #19 on: February 01, 2016, 08:29:25 PM »
Quote from: Cassius on February 01, 2016, 08:28:35 PM
WHY Rubio? Why can't that portion of the GOP electorate at least line up behind an establishment candidate with a human personality?

If they could, they would have the first time.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #20 on: February 01, 2016, 08:36:03 PM »
I am digging this, folks. The tension is palpable, and I'm lovin' it. Plus, it's nice to have the commercials inside a little window on CNN instead of fullscreen like usual.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #21 on: February 01, 2016, 08:39:05 PM »
Now, Trump with 40-vote lead over Cruz
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #22 on: February 01, 2016, 08:40:58 PM »
Jesus Christ, do CNN's people not understand capital letters? I know I'm behind the curve here, but seriously.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #23 on: February 01, 2016, 08:44:27 PM »

It was long over already.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26
« Reply #24 on: February 01, 2016, 08:45:46 PM »

Not happening this time. Santorum 2020?
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