NH-UMass Lowell/7 News Daily Tracking Poll Thread

[Lyin' Steve]

Yeah this is the first post-Iowa poll, there haven't been any post-debate polls yet (since presumably the Thursday tracking was taken before the debate).  I'm really looking forward to seeing how the forum and the debate affect the numbers.  Does anyone know what the local viewership was for those events?  Anyone on the ground in NH know if people were tuning in?

[BM]

Happy to see Bernie's numbers falling after his disgraceful tactics. If Clinton can keep the margin below 10% it's a major victory for her and the final nail in his coffin.

[Mr. Morden]

Today’s update (poll conducted Feb. 3-5):

http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-6%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230852.pdf

Dems

Sanders 55%
Clinton 41%

GOP

Trump 35%
Rubio 14%
Cruz 13%
Kasich 10%
Bush 10%
Christie 4%
Carson 3%
Fiorina 3%

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s a fun education gap:

high school or less:
Trump 44%
Bush 12%
Cruz 12%
Rubio 11%
Kasich 5%

post-graduate degree:
Kasich 21%
Rubio 20%
Trump 17%
Cruz 12%
Bush 11%

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Here’s a fun education gap:

high school or less:
Trump 44%
Bush 12%
Cruz 12%
Rubio 11%
Kasich 5%

post-graduate degree:
Kasich 21%
Rubio 20%
Trump 17%
Cruz 12%
Bush 11%

Trump tell those NERDS who's boss!  Dorks!

[Holmes]

Clinton keeping with that upward movement.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Atlas defies amazement.  Finding people that are actually excited about Hillary friggin Clinton is bewildering.  I bet you are all fans of Grey's Anatomy, too. 

She's going to get crushed on Tues. by glorious idealism. 

[The Other Castro]

Atlas defies amazement.  Finding people that are actually excited about Hillary friggin Clinton is bewildering.  I bet you are all fans of Grey's Anatomy, too. 

She's going to get crushed on Tues. by glorious idealism. 

After Season 2 it all just went downhill.

[RI]

post-graduate degree:
Kasich 21%
Rubio 20%
Trump 17%
Cruz 12%
Bush 11%

My people.

[Holmes]

Atlas defies amazement.  Finding people that are actually excited about Hillary friggin Clinton is bewildering.  I bet you are all fans of Grey's Anatomy, too. 

She's going to get crushed on Tues. by glorious idealism. 

Shock is the first stage of grief. Subconsciously you must know what's going to happen so you're clinging to New Hampshire.

[Sorenroy]

Change from yesterday:

Democrats:
Clinton — +1
Sanders — ±0

Clinton has lost her lead amongst non-white voters (now 49-46 Sanders, 5% of Democrats), but has captured the key Conservative vote (56-42, 7% of Democrats). She also still holds a commanding lead amongst 65+ year olds which she wins 59-37 (+7 from yesterday, 28% of Democrats). Her worst group remains 18-29 year olds at 92-8 Sanders (+6 for Sanders from yesterday, 12% of Democrats).

Republicans:
Kasich — +2
Bush — +2
Trump — +1
Fiorina — ±0
Rubio  — -1
Ted Cruz — -1
Christie — -1
Carson — -1

Trump leads every group but Postgraduates.

[rob in cal]

   Where's the Rubio surge?  I would think if a surge was going to take place it should be starting by now.

[Sorenroy]

I have also made a sister poll on the General Election page since their match-ups for New Hampshire have become daily. You can find that thread over here if you are interested:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=228462.0

[Landslide Lyndon]

   Where's the Rubio surge?  I would think if a surge was going to take place it should be starting by now.

Rubio had a mini-surge in this poll which seems to have stalled.
Who knows, maybe the people started to realize that despite the media calling him the "winner" of Iowa he actually came in third.

[Torie]

It's the Cruz number that from poll to poll seems to widely vary, certainly as a percentage of his now numbers, with some polls showing close to twice as high a number as others.

[Lief 🗽]

I mean, the Rubio surge could come today or it could come Tuesday morning or it could never come at all. It's too early to say anything really.

[Tender Branson]

#SocialistCodger has stopped collapsing with today's release:

57% Bernie (+2 comp. with yesterday)
40% Hillary (-1)

36% Trump (+1)
14% Rubio (nc)
13% Cruz (nc)
10% Bush (nc)
  9% Kasich (-1)
  4% Christie (nc)
  4% Fiorina (+1)
  3% Carson (nc)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ah NH, the contrarian internet troll in electorate form.

[Eraserhead]

Bernie and The Donald are all set to deliver epic thrashings to The Establisment! Glorious news!

[Tender Branson]

A few other facts from todays release:

* Bernie leads non-whites by 60-40 (but they are only 6% of the LV sample)
* Among the broader sample of registered Dem. primary voters, Sanders leads 60-35. Which means the higher the turnout on Tuesday, the better for him.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

54% of NH women are going to a special place in hell.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

#SocialistCodger has stopped collapsing with today's release:

57% Bernie (+2 comp. with yesterday)
40% Hillary (-1)

36% Trump (+1)
14% Rubio (nc)
13% Cruz (nc)
10% Bush (nc)
  9% Kasich (-1)
  4% Christie (nc)
  4% Fiorina (+1)
  3% Carson (nc)

GREAT NEWS! 

Bernie's sweet sweet sweet SNL appearance should make things even cheerier for the Senator from Vermont!

[Shadows]

54% of NH women are going to a special place in hell.

85 or 90% of the young female voters, are doing it for the boys who are with Bernie!!!

[Mr. Morden]

Today’s update (poll conducted Feb. 5-7):

http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-8%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230870.pdf

Dems

Sanders 56%
Clinton 40%

GOP

Trump 34%
Cruz 13%
Rubio 13%
Bush 10%
Kasich 10%
Christie 5%
Fiorina 4%
Carson 3%

[Shadows]

Today’s update (poll conducted Feb. 5-7):

http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-8%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230870.pdf

Dems

Sanders 56%
Clinton 40%

GOP

Trump 34%
Cruz 13%
Rubio 13%
Bush 10%
Kasich 10%
Christie 5%
Fiorina 4%
Carson 3%

Sanders holding steady with 16% Lead. Interesting that this poll also has 14% in the age group 18-29.

With a high turnout from young voters, 20% margin in achievable