Is Donald Trump finished?

[IceSpear]

I'm gonna say yes.

1) Destroys the bandwagon effect: Trump being a winner who could conquer any challenge was a major part of his appeal. This has now been shattered.

2) Disappearing voters: Nobody knows exactly what happened tonight. Most likely is that a lot of Trump voters who said they were going to turn out actually didn't. Another possibility is that these people never supported him to begin with, and were either doing so "ironically" or just as a placeholder protest vote until they seriously considered their other options. This means his dominance everywhere could be just a facade.

3) Polling:A good part of Trump's momentum was his poll numbers, almost always steadily climbing, which he constantly bragged about. He's almost certainly going to fall after this. What will he brag about then? In addition to that, it's very possible pollsters may "overcorrect", and even start filtering out Trump voters who actually will vote just to avoid making the huge blunders they did in Iowa. This will further exacerbate a negative feedback loop for Trump's polling, so it kind of goes hand in hand with #1.

4) Debate: Aside from Trump's New York values moment, his best zingers in the debates usually had to do with how well each candidate was doing. "Jeb, I'm at 40, you're at 4. etc." But what's he going to say now? "Marco, I got 24, you got 23?" Yeah, I doubt it. And it opens the door for Cruz to say "well congratulations on 24 Donald, but I got 28! *cue audience applause*"

5) The Empire (Punditry) Strikes Back: The media, particularly the professional pundits, were infuriated and humiliated when Trump consistently defied their conventional wisdom and didn't collapse the dozen times they predicted he would. They'll likely see this as an opportunity to stick the knife in deep and get their revenge, along with being able to say: "See, he did collapse eventually! We were right!" These are also the same people in the tank for Rubio, who are NO DOUBT going to declare Rubio the winner of the debate, Trump the loser, and cherrypick polls to fit the Trump is doomed narrative.

So what do you think Atlas?

[Lyin' Steve]

This whole "People like Trump because he'll win every contest" thing always seems like a fabrication of the media.  I've never heard his supporters say that.  I've never heard him say that.  It's like some quote they made up so they could bash him when he lost Iowa.

And I'm not just saying that now, it's something that's bothered me for months.

Also, his lead in Iowa was always tenuous.  He has huge margins in most/all of the other states.  He was up 5-8 in his best polls in Iowa.  He's up 10-15 in his worst polls in New Hampshire.

So he endures eight days of negative media coverage, or plays the "Trump comeback" game, then defeats his rivals and the narrative changes to "Trump is BACK."

Next, on to South Carolina where he's up by even more.

Rubio is in the single digits in both states.

[morgieb]

Your logic is valid, and I've kinda felt that way if I have to predict, but given the nature of this primary season it wouldn't surprise me if NH sprung him back to life.

[Sir Mohamed]

No, and honestly, I don’t think it’s a loss. Some consider it a loss because expectations were too high. I said from the beginning on he’s gonna finish second after Cruz and I said don’t underestimate Rubio. The Trump is finished if he doesn’t win NH. And right now, he has a 25% lead.

[BlueSwan]

I'm gonna say yes.

1) Destroys the bandwagon effect: Trump being a winner who could conquer any challenge was a major part of his appeal. This has now been shattered.

2) Disappearing voters: Nobody knows exactly what happened tonight. Most likely is that a lot of Trump voters who said they were going to turn out actually didn't. Another possibility is that these people never supported him to begin with, and were either doing so "ironically" or just as a placeholder protest vote until they seriously considered their other options. This means his dominance everywhere could be just a facade.

3) Polling:A good part of Trump's momentum was his poll numbers, almost always steadily climbing, which he constantly bragged about. He's almost certainly going to fall after this. What will he brag about then? In addition to that, it's very possible pollsters may "overcorrect", and even start filtering out Trump voters who actually will vote just to avoid making the huge blunders they did in Iowa. This will further exacerbate a negative feedback loop for Trump's polling, so it kind of goes hand in hand with #1.

4) Debate: Aside from Trump's New York values moment, his best zingers in the debates usually had to do with how well each candidate was doing. "Jeb, I'm at 40, you're at 4. etc." But what's he going to say now? "Marco, I got 24, you got 23?" Yeah, I doubt it. And it opens the door for Cruz to say "well congratulations on 24 Donald, but I got 28! *cue audience applause*"

5) The Empire (Punditry) Strikes Back: The media, particularly the professional pundits, were infuriated and humiliated when Trump consistently defied their conventional wisdom and didn't collapse the dozen times they predicted he would. They'll likely see this as an opportunity to stick the knife in deep and get their revenge, along with being able to say: "See, he did collapse eventually! We were right!" These are also the same people in the tank for Rubio, who are NO DOUBT going to declare Rubio the winner of the debate, Trump the loser, and cherrypick polls to fit the Trump is doomed narrative.

So what do you think Atlas?

All good points and you haven't even mentioned the single worst thing for Trump last night: the resurgence of Marco Rubio. Had Trump only lost to Cruz it would have been sort of OK, but pulling almost even with Rubio is terrible. If Rubio can now emerge as the establishment consensus candidate, then that is terrible news for both Trump and Cruz.

On the positive side for Trump is the fact that he didn't have a public meltdown over the loss. Infact, his speech was perfectly nice.

I don't and have never believed that Cruz can win the nomination. But the battle of the establishment candidates will be VERY interesting now. Will they infact consolidate around Rubio, or will someone else who does well in New Hampshire challenge him, keeping the path open for Trump?

[Mr. Morden]

Likely yes, but given this season, watch him get 45% in NH.  Nothing would surprise me anymore.  Regarding your 2nd point, it looks like it Trump's unlikely voters did show up to caucus for him, but there was also a last minute surge of stop Trump at all costs turnout.  Look at what happened to Le Pen's party in the runoff round of French provincial elections.  They were shut out by a late surge of anti-racist turnout.

You may be on to something here.  It may not be quite as straightforward as "stop Trump at all costs", but you're right that you can't simply explain this as "Trump's voters didn't show up", because then how do you explain the high turnout?  A lot more voters than expected in absolute numbers and not just percentage terms showed up for Cruz and Rubio than we would have predicted before caucus day.  It may in fact be that the fact that Trump consistently leads not just the "who would you vote for" polling question but the "who would you never vote for" question means that his presence in the race encourages the supporters of other candidates to show up at the polls.

[Admiral Kizaru]

Narratives can change in an instant. If he wins NH by close to what the polls have him at right now (which admittedly after tonight is debatable) then he can spin that into a "comeback against the odds win" and through that exploit the positive media coverage helping him propel to wins in Nevada and South Carolina.

What's however for certain now is that his path to the nomination is a lot more difficult for him than it was 24 hours ago.

I still peg him as favorite mainly because I struggle to see his main threat Rubio winning any of the first four contests and especially if as I expect, not all the governors drop out till at least after super Tuesday.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

He could draw parallels between himself and Reagan a lot more clearly now in addition to Iowa always picking the loser line. NH is where winners are born.

[Beezer]

Fascinating how the media (and parts of the public have gone from) "the guy has no chance" to "he's already secured the nomination" and back again to "Trump's done" over the course of a few weeks, or in the latter 2 cases, hours.

I don't think Trump supporters will now abandon him to join Rubio so he should still look pretty good in NH and even SC. Then you could argue that he's still got momentum on his side.

[RR1997]

Like I've mentioned before, Romney also shockingly lost Iowa and still won. Trump still has a great chance of winning.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Like I've mentioned before, Romney also shockingly lost Iowa and still won. Trump still has a great chance of winning.

Of course Romney 2012's margin was more like Bernie 2016 than Trump 2016 in Iowa.

[Lief 🗽]

Literally all TRUMP has to do is win New Hampshire and he can spin himself as the humbled but triumphant comeback kid. He's hardly finished.

Of course, if he loses NH, then he's finished.

[Why]

Trump has to win New Hampshire, which going by the polls he is going to do easily.
In Iowa he was first headed by Carson and then Cruz. Although it seemed he had regained the lead in Iowa it was still not a huge lead.
His biggest threat is probably not under performing for the poll results, although he might do that again by a bit, but if the Rubio's performance gives Rubio a huge last minute surge in New Hampshire. Still it would be a massive change in a week to see Rubio beating Trump, one I do not expect to happen. Rubio might get second well ahead of Cruz.

[Volrath50]

He's not finished by any means, but he absolutely has to win NH.

However, now that expectations have been lowered, an NH win might restart his momentum and carry him through SC.

[BM]

I genuinely felt for Trump tonight and I hope to see him make a comeback. That's how vile this villain known as Ted Cruz is.

[Vern]

Trump is never finished in his own mind. But, I believe he is. Rubio will surge in the polls in NH, Cruz will get a small bump.

[wolfsblood07]

This is a race for delegates.  Trump did very well in Iowa, a strong 2nd place and got 7 delegates to Cruz's 8.  We are not rid of Trump yet!  But I believe he will fade, in time.

[pbrower2a]

He needs another decisive defeat, most likely in New Hampshire, to convince him that there are other ways to get publicity of his choosing.

On the other hand, I think people are onto him. 

[Leinad]

If he loses New Hampshire he's totally dead.

As of right now, still the favorite in NH, I don't think he's out at all. But now he's part of a close 3-way race with Cruz and Rubio.

IceSpear makes 5 solid points, so even if you explain away 1 or 2 of those, there's still evidence that Trump is wounded.

Again, though, he's not dead yet. I bet he'll win in New Hampshire and they're will be a thread asking if he just won the nomination--which will also be knee-jerk-y and probably not true.

[NHI]

He needs to win NH, otherwise his campaign is done.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

No, but I will revel in his humiliation should he lose New Hampshire

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I genuinely felt for Trump tonight and I hope to see him make a comeback. That's how vile this villain known as Ted Cruz is.

Thank you for understanding our cause. Ted is a menace to American society.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

He needs another decisive defeat, most likely in New Hampshire, to convince him that there are other ways to get publicity of his choosing.

On the other hand, I think people are onto him. 

This.

[NHI]

I genuinely felt for Trump tonight and I hope to see him make a comeback. That's how vile this villain known as Ted Cruz is.

Thank you for understanding our cause. Ted is a menace to American society.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

It all depends on NH. After Rubio's result yesterday I could see him shoring up the establishment vote and surging  to a victory there. In that case, Trump should be done. If the Donald wins though he'll probably take SC as well and then he'll be one of three strong candidates going into Super Tuesday.