Still going with Trump. Rubio going hard on God in Iowa will hold him down some in NH I suspect, so I don't see him causing the other establishment lane candidates to collapse. So while Trump may erode, I would expect him to still win. Sanders of course on the Dem side. I do wonder if some of the Jeb support will move to Kasich though. It would be nice if Jeb was finished off in NH. He has been a negative influence now for some time. He's really offered little if anything to the conversation, and his PAC is toxic, with the silliest of personal attacks being slung around.
Your electoral analysis sounds fine and dandy.
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