Are you more or less confidant of a Sanders primary win after Iowa?

[Sorenroy]

Even if you dislike him/would never vote for him, now that the first real votes are in, do you think he has a better or worse chance?


In my opinion, his chances are worse. He needed the media attention from an outright win, and he didn't get it. I don't think the race is over, but I definitely think that it will be more difficult for him to pull off a victory.

Voting will be locked in seven days, hopefully before voting in New Hampshire (but I don't know how to make the locking that specific unless I do it manually (which I might anyway, but still)).

[Torie]

Less confident. It's mostly kids feeling the Bern.

[This account no longer in use.]

I'll wait until we see how the media spins Iowa.

[Tender Branson]

No change or actually more confident.

While he didn't win IA (maybe in raw votes, who knows), voters saw that he can match Hillary and be competetive with her.

And CNN for example had a focus group of undecided voters in NH and they asked if the IA results made them decide for a candidate and Bernie got more votes than Hillary.

So, in general I'm still rather confident about the next races.

[Figueira]

I was never anywhere near "confident."

I'd say this increases Hillary's chances, but she was going to win anyway in all likelihood.

[Shadows]

No Change with a minor positive feeling as you have to admire the performance, this was always going to be a David vs Goliath. The delegate count is 22-21, who knows he may actually make it 22-22. For Bernie almost a 50% vote considering everything is a terrific achievement.

But yes, even a victory by 0.1% thought would have been great as it would be a BIG BIG loss for Hillary.  Hillary's loss would have been across the front page of major newspaper across the world, forget the US.

The fact that Bernie needs a record turn-out to win & there is no major gender divide is obvious IMO.

[Asian Nazi]

About the same I guess

[Krzysztof Lesiak]

I said less confident. There's a new poll out dated the 31st I believe that has Sanders 49% to Clinton's 43%. That's a significant drop from the high double digit lead he was enjoying. I think Sanders will win NH, but it will be very close, not as a close as Iowa, but maybe like a 1 or 2 point difference.

[Tender Branson]

I said less confident. There's a new poll out dated the 31st I believe that has Sanders 49% to Clinton's 43%. That's a significant drop from the high double digit lead he was enjoying. I think Sanders will win NH, but it will be very close, not as a close as Iowa, but maybe like a 1 or 2 point difference.

That's an ARG poll ...

Re: ARG (their last IA poll)

I'd be more comfortable if they had Hillary up by 3 ...

So, RIP Bernie ...

[This account no longer in use.]

Anyways, I don't think we'll know until we find out if the media spins this as a Clinton win or a tie.

[HillOfANight]

Less confident, but he's still favored in NH. If Clinton won more decisively, I think she would have been the more likely one to win in NH.

[President Johnson]

Still unchanged; Hillary's gonna be the nominee.

[This account no longer in use.]

Less confident, but he's still favored in NH. If Clinton won more decisively, I think she would have been the more likely one to win in NH.

Due to this impeccable logic, I am predicting that Ted Cruz will win New Hampshire.

[The Other Castro]

It's looking like this is being spun as a tie/look how impressive Sanders was.

[°Leprechaun]

More confident, because he could do very well in NH. After that, though, he will have a rough time in the south on March 1 regardless of how he does in the next three states. It may be a question of survival until the end of March. Obviously he needs to win a few states in March to be viable.

[BM]

I'm more confident that most of the nation won't even remember his name by the fall.

[Sol]

My biggest concern after this is Sanders's performance in the state's majority black precincts, which was pretty anemic--does not bode well for the long term.

[This account no longer in use.]

I'm more confident that most of the nation won't even remember his name by the fall.

Honestly, you're acting like a parody of Clinton supporters at this point.

[HillOfANight]

Less confident, but he's still favored in NH. If Clinton won more decisively, I think she would have been the more likely one to win in NH.

Due to this impeccable logic, I am predicting that Ted Cruz will win New Hampshire.

Why would that be surprising? The Donald is a loser. Cruz did much better than the polls. NH voters are going to wonder if Trump has got it.

[Eraserhead]

More confident. Of course I'd still be shocked if he won the nomination.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

He will win places like NH and VT but he lose badly once he hits the southern states where Hillary does good with the non white vote.

[IceSpear]

No change. See sig.

[The Other Castro]

His biggest test for me comes from Nevada. If he's not pulling the right numbers from Hispanics by then, he doesn't have a long path going forward. He doesn't need to make big inroads with Blacks to win, but he can't get by with just Whites.