Stop using this as proof that Sanders will lose.

[Sorenroy]

First off: I do not think Sanders will win. Especially after loosing Iowa (however narrowly) he will be losing the momentum game, which is basically the only way he could win in the first place. In fact this mourning NPR just said that Clinton won, not by the margin, so even spinning a tie will be difficult. That being said: STOP USING THIS STUPID IMAGE AS PROOF THAT SANDERS WILL LOSE.

I am using the most recent poll from each state, excluding Overtime Politics (for obvious reasons). Green means Sanders has met or surpassed the percentage that chart asks for, red means that Sanders is behind that target, orange means that the most recent poll shows him behind, but that it is more than three months old, white means the state is not included in the 538 graphic, and grey means that state has never been polled.

Obviously Sanders has some work to do, however the "white liberal percentage" is not an indicator of how far he can get. It is not his ceiling that he somehow can't surpass, and it is also not his floor that he cannot fall below. And as a note, it's not like you sign a contract saying "I am a white liberal and I swear allegiance to the old white male Democrat." White liberals vote for Clinton, and other groups vote for Sanders. As such STOP THROWING THIS IMAGE AROUND LIKE IT PROVES SOMETHING. There are so many other ways to prove your point, don't make that proof dumb and unfounded.

As a note: there is no gradient on this map. Some of the red states have Sanders down 10% and some have him down 1%. The same goes for the other side. This is just a simple graphic I made so I could illustrate my point with more than words.

Edit: I hope that Sanders does not "loose" either, but it has been fixed.

[Asian Nazi]

U mad bro? 

[Oakvale]

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The image is stupid because of the statistics not because of the reasons you say. It provides a modestly accurate ranking of states he will do well in. Iowa is near the top of that list.

[Pyro]

Sanders will need to win support from non-white voters to come close. Depending on how his campaign goes and how fiercely Clinton opposes him, the race could turn at anytime. How the media talks about New Hampshire could change things as well.

[IceSpear]

Huh? The chart isn't meant to provide an exact barometer of Sanders' support in any particular state. It's just to show which states are most demographically favorable to him.

[The Other Castro]

This is from 2010 so the numbers aren't up to date, but this would probably be useful as well. Sanders is going to have the hardest time swinging black voters from Clinton.

[Prince of Salem]

Sanders will need to win support from non-white voters to come close. Depending on how his campaign goes and how fiercely Clinton opposes him, the race could turn at anytime. How the media talks about New Hampshire could change things as well.

This exactly.

[Young Conservative]

***** LOSING******

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Exactly. California is near the bottom of that list, and Bernie was down only 11% before his latest momentum.

[Xing]

I would say that it's going to be very hard for Bernie if the momentum isn't in his favor, and he can't improve his standing among minorities. He has gained an enormous amount of support over the past few months, so who's to say that it's impossible he could continue gaining support, and contest states lower on that list than Iowa?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bernie is doing great with Native Americans. But I guess they don't matter.

[Mehmentum]

Bernie is doing great with Native Americans. But I guess they don't matter.

Sure they do, in Alaska and Montana.  Native Americans, however, will not help Sanders in Ohio, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, California and basically every other state.

I'm sure winning Native Americans will be a nice moral victory for Sanders, but they don't get him that much closer to the nomination.  To be clear, the argument is not that 'Sanders should feel bad about himself for not having minority support', its 'Sanders cannot win without minority support.'. 

[This account no longer in use.]

[Ogre Mage]

This article had a good point about why Sanders is struggling with black voters vs. Clinton:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/01/22/why-african-american-voters-may-doom-bernie-sanders-candidacy/

[Figueira]

Bernie is doing great with Native Americans. But I guess they don't matter.

Source?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bernie is doing great with Native Americans. But I guess they don't matter.

Source?

He won 5 of 6 delegates from the reservation in this county

https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/county/19171

[Figueira]

Bernie is doing great with Native Americans. But I guess they don't matter.

Source?

He won 5 of 6 delegates from the reservation in this county

https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/county/19171

Ah, I see. Cool. It'll be interesting to see how he does in other reservations, and whether that will help him in the Alaska primary.

[Taco Truck 🚚]

U mad bro? 

Lol.

Huh? The chart isn't meant to provide an exact barometer of Sanders' support in any particular state. It's just to show which states are most demographically favorable to him.

Yeah... I would think that would have been obvious.  Lower percentage of white liberals is a drag on his efforts not some kind of magical ceiling.

[Uhh_murican]

This says that Sanders won Hispanics in Iowa.

[Angel of Death]

Anyone with even a modicum of statistical literacy must surely cringe at that image, because it assumes being white and being liberal are independent conditions in a given state.